ping
Reminder: Marist Polls were awful in 2016
Had Hillary ahead by 6 points and she lost by 3.6
How are Independents breaking, as a rule?
Note that some D counties, Leon and Alachua doing very well for Ds, while Ds are overperforming in in Pasco, Collier, and Sumter and Lee, despite very good R turnout.
Good news indeed. To hear the giddy way the Media reports early voting, it’s almost like they assume all early voters are Dems. But I still think they are counting on people voting early AND in person.
A million thanks; so much appreciated. (”Lol—Harris is trying to clean up Biden’s oil spill in Tx.)
List:
**NC, PA, MI, WI
**Discernment & Effort
**House races/Down ballot items
One key number that I think you are missing which would put things into perspective, what wat the Dem lead over RepRep in 2016 after all voting, not just EV. I don’t have all my references in front of me but I have it written down as 301k. That puts the present 255k in a different light.
My rough numbers show the Reps will turnout over 100k greater than 2016. The Dem number is essentially unchanged from 2016.
There is a large number of unaffiliated voters who can gum up the works.
To me, Trump’s 2020 margin of victory in NC looks roughly the same as 2016. I will make my final predictions on Monday.
The key in all this jumble is whom did the Unassigned voters
cast their ballot for.
Dems-—1,633,774 (+77K) (37.60% of all early votes)
Reps—1,378,537 (+92K) (31.72%)
Unas—1,310,505 (+89K) (30.16%)
The Rs are catching up with the Ds, but I think it’s the unaffiliated that will kick the Dems butt.
I hope.
Have you seen any Remington polls this year?
I don’t recall them being super accurate but they weren’t media BS and in 2016 correctly identified Pa,Mich,Minn,Wisc as states that were in play ....
Blacks, in general, have no motivation to vote for Biden. If Trump has made the big inroads to the black vote, Biden has no chance.
Biden focusing on shutting down the economy is pissing off the young voters. Young college educated voters know that Biden will cost them lots of money and jobs.