Note that some D counties, Leon and Alachua doing very well for Ds, while Ds are overperforming in in Pasco, Collier, and Sumter and Lee, despite very good R turnout.
What does mean?
TargetSmart Florida has just flipped to Republicans leading by .3% over Democrats in their modeled electorate. First R lead. FWIW, but it is a Democrat firm.
Interesting nugget: Every county in the Florida panhandle, according to TargetSmart, has a more favorable number for Republicans in their model as compared to 2016 at this exact number of days from Election Day. The only exception is Leon County, which has almost identical R/D modeled turnout.
Some of these numbers are crazy:
Lafayette Co: 2016 model for EV was 59%(D) vs. 39%(R). 2020 model as of today: 85%(R) vs. 7%(D). That’s not a typo. Small county, but it suggests that Trump’s rural base is bursting at the seems.
Hamilton Co: 2016 model vs. 2020 model Rs are up net +22 pts over Democrats.