Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051

[Ravi]

Now that would be nice!

[SmokingJoe]

Peoples_Pundit
Riddle me this...

I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.

Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...
Who am I?

Answer: Nate Silver

[italianquaker]

Local 10 is pushing “souls to the polls” Sunday, see if that hurts

[Ravi]

Honestly that would hurt just a little bit if we end up at around 120k. Still easy to overcome election day but seeing the trajectory going this way and then reverse...

[italianquaker]

I dont believe mine own ears and eyes but can Trump get 15-20% of the black vote.
Sounds it but every cycle rats say they are going to turn Texas blue also

[Coop]

I think the D lead was down to about 270K yesterday morning, correct? Hoping another 15-20K was chopped off on Friday.

Dem lead in NC down to 255K

As a reminder, in 2016 Dems had a lead in NC of 310K ballots cast, yet lost the state by ~178K votes. A swing of nearly a half million votes assuming 100% partisan voting.

[SheepWhisperer]

Thank you!

Very good news in light of the numbers seen at rallies, where, what was it recently...?

13,000 registered
30% were democrats
25% were NPA

...that means that fully 55% attending the rally were not Republicans. Simply amazing.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Adding 6 more votes in Fl this morning...One is Independent.”

Bless you.

[Coop]

I expect it will reverse a bit, due to GOP voting areas closing and more Souls to Polls events. But I'm not as pessimistic as Speedy.

According to this source the final Dem early voting lead in FL in 2016 was 117K, a gap of 1.36%.

[lovesdogs]

Bookmark

[LS]

Oh, FFS. Can someone get a number?

First it was 88,000, which was what we all used for years. Then it was, ‘Oh, no, it was higher, it was 96,000.” Now it’s 117,000?

Not yelling at you, just wish we could ALL agree on an election even # and stick with it.

[byecomey]

Yeah, my confidence level in NC is pretty high.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“No, I think that was LS using that as his overall ending vote lead. I have 65K for Election Day.”

If you guys are talking about the Dem lead for all EVs in 2016. Ds led by 96k.

Totals here: http://www.electionczar.com/floridaearlyvote.html

If you don’t believe, you can go calculate from DOE:
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

[southpaw1]

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

Approx 96k according to state of FL

[Coop]

I gave you a linked number. Speedy and byecomey gave you numbers, too. Pick one. :-)

[janetjanet998]

10:08am

last 3 updates

+737 -(-136) = +873 net
+1141 -4 = +1136 net
+1298 -189. = +1109 net

at 10am Leon(D county) Lake and Lee counties(big reds with decent population) come online

they are a combined net R+ IPEV 46,167 over 12 days or 3,847 a day

I will be conservative and take 65% of that daily number and divide by 24

should add 105 more IPEV per hour an average that we didn’t have today until now

[byecomey]

Hi Larry,

I guess different people have different definitions! I propose using this source:

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

=(1049809 Dem VBM+1580003 Dem IPEV)-(1108053 Rep VBM+1425309 Rep IPEV)

If my math is correct, it is indeed 96,450.

[byecomey]

Great start.

[wfu_deacons]

Ping

[LS]

I know. It’s maddening how these sources can all be so off.

Currently the lead is 107,592.

So distance to first target is just 10,000.

Are now up 6,000 toward Trump’s final margin of 113,000 at the end of election night.