Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
Ralston still says it’s Biden’s to lose but he’s hedging a bit. These guys will be shocked to see the rural turnout for Trump across the country. They live in their urban bubbles and pontificate year round.
Just a few days ago, he was confident that the state wide lead will be more than it was in 2016 (45k) and now he has to deal with this. Let’s see what happens but this is not a freaking 8-12 nation wide lead for Biden, unless he’s gesturing massive leads among independents and significant crossover.
Still exelent.
Yes it started out strong but it really tailed off I was expected +36K last night for today
dems mail in net up over yesterday
last year dEMS gained 52K the Sunday before the election
plus Dem will have a 5-10K mail in advantage
What are you? Fifteen?
Not very nice of people. You can disagree with the meaning of the numbers, but be decent human.
Trump lost NV in 2016 by 2.4 points, a whopping ~26K votes. As of 9/1 the NV GOP had made a net gain of nearly 6K votes. Gary Johnson took over 37K votes, while None of these candidates scored another nearly 29K votes. Plus NV-03 is another Republican-leaning House district the GOPs Dan Rodimer is trying to win back. While its not a shoo-in, the Trump campaign can definitely flip NV.
Janet, you’re getting cocky. Horrible is Dems leading Repubs by 100,000 VBMs per day. Today ain’t horrible by any stretch.
Just looked up Nevada.
End of early vote lead 6% in 2016. Final win for Clinton 2.42%
Nev registration
Dem 2020 742K 2016 was 669K 11% growth
Rep 2020 626K 2016 was 549K 14% growth
Big indie numbers
GA black % of the electorate 30% This year 27.6%.
Do you know what the fl black composition of the electorate is so far?
What does that mean? GA 30% of registered voters are black and only 2.4% of them did not vote yet? That would be a huge turnout.
No, there percentage is 27.6, was 30% in 2016.
whew
In person early votes is 26.4%.
Janet, youre getting cocky. Horrible is Dems leading Repubs by 100,000 VBMs per day. Today aint horrible by any stretch.
—
per day? Rep up 24-25K net today
late this afternoon was not good
If fact until then Dems never had a net gain per update since I have been doing this
they had one about an hour ago
and just had another
5:28 update 208 - 426 = Dems +218 net
since 3pm
IPEV REP +3743 DEMS mail in +1610
2133/7
only 305 average R+ net gain the past 7 updates
now compare that to yesterday to even this morning
You have been doing excellent work. Dont listen to the detractors.
Truth is truth. Its not always popular. But it is truth.
And yet the GOP is still gaining. I would never describe that as horrible. GOP IPEV gains today are at about 33K, while the Dems’ overall FL early vote lead has been cut to just over 90K. That’s from a high of almost half a million just 10 days ago. Today is a very good day!
“last year dEMS gained 52K the Sunday before the election”
Tomorrow will tell us much about what we might call early cannibalization.
The more general issue is simply the lead. 91K is 3.6% of the expected remaining votes to come in Tuesday.
Elections guy is looking for 11-12M total and 8.6M have already voted. A guy posted earlier ED scoring by Reps well in excess of 3.6 year after year, but the less burden the better.
But honestly, how can anyone reliably predict the remaining vote given the Wuhan Virus impact? Will Democrats really stay home, or have an awesome turnout? Will Republicans really blow Dems out of the water on 11/3, or turn out to be chicken?
Today is a very good day!
I was referring more to the last couple of hours
what happened? why the R IPEV + tailoff?
It doesn’t bode well for tomorrow afternoon when we will missing most of our counties if it is this weak now even with them
last update
5:48 R’s only had a +35 IPEV vote while D’s gained 127 mail ins so Dems +92 net
“I am feeling left out”
There is still time. Just wait.
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