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Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; florida
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Ralston still says it’s Biden’s to lose but he’s hedging a bit. These guys will be shocked to see the rural turnout for Trump across the country. They live in their urban bubbles and pontificate year round.

Just a few days ago, he was confident that the state wide lead will be more than it was in 2016 (45k) and now he has to deal with this. Let’s see what happens but this is not a freaking 8-12 nation wide lead for Biden, unless he’s gesturing massive leads among independents and significant crossover.


261 posted on 10/31/2020 2:23:18 PM PDT by JerseyRepub
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To: cowboyusa

Still exelent.


Yes it started out strong but it really tailed off I was expected +36K last night for today

dems mail in net up over yesterday


tomorrow we are missing 2/3 of our troops (many R counties are closed) and it is “souls to the polls day” for the DEMS

last year dEMS gained 52K the Sunday before the election

plus Dem will have a 5-10K mail in advantage


262 posted on 10/31/2020 2:23:59 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Conserv

What are you? Fifteen?


263 posted on 10/31/2020 2:26:00 PM PDT by wireman
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To: Coop

Not very nice of people. You can disagree with the meaning of the numbers, but be decent human.


264 posted on 10/31/2020 2:26:03 PM PDT by rlbedfor
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To: SpeedyInTexas
So I don't have to type again:

Trump lost NV in 2016 by 2.4 points, a whopping ~26K votes. As of 9/1 the NV GOP had made a net gain of nearly 6K votes. Gary Johnson took over 37K votes, while “None of these candidates” scored another nearly 29K votes. Plus NV-03 is another Republican-leaning House district the GOP’s Dan Rodimer is trying to win back. While it’s not a shoo-in, the Trump campaign can definitely flip NV.

State of the 2020 election

265 posted on 10/31/2020 2:26:26 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: janetjanet998

Janet, you’re getting cocky. Horrible is Dems leading Repubs by 100,000 VBMs per day. Today ain’t horrible by any stretch.


266 posted on 10/31/2020 2:27:35 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Just looked up Nevada.

End of early vote lead 6% in 2016. Final win for Clinton 2.42%

Nev registration
Dem 2020 742K 2016 was 669K 11% growth
Rep 2020 626K 2016 was 549K 14% growth

Big indie numbers


267 posted on 10/31/2020 2:29:03 PM PDT by Owen
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To: janetjanet998

GA black % of the electorate 30% This year 27.6%.


268 posted on 10/31/2020 2:29:47 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy Up)
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To: janetjanet998

Do you know what the fl black composition of the electorate is so far?


269 posted on 10/31/2020 2:35:30 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy Up)
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To: cowboyusa

What does that mean? GA 30% of registered voters are black and only 2.4% of them did not vote yet? That would be a huge turnout.


270 posted on 10/31/2020 2:36:23 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

No, there percentage is 27.6, was 30% in 2016.


271 posted on 10/31/2020 2:38:01 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy Up)
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To: cowboyusa

whew


272 posted on 10/31/2020 2:39:19 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

In person early votes is 26.4%.


273 posted on 10/31/2020 2:40:15 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy Up)
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To: Coop

Janet, you’re getting cocky. Horrible is Dems leading Repubs by 100,000 VBMs per day. Today ain’t horrible by any stretch.

per day? Rep up 24-25K net today

late this afternoon was not good

If fact until then Dems never had a net gain per update since I have been doing this

they had one about an hour ago

and just had another

5:28 update 208 - 426 = Dems +218 net

since 3pm

IPEV REP +3743 DEMS mail in +1610

2133/7

only 305 average R+ net gain the past 7 updates

now compare that to yesterday to even this morning


274 posted on 10/31/2020 2:41:43 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

You have been doing excellent work. Don’t listen to the detractors.

Truth is truth. It’s not always popular. But it is truth.


275 posted on 10/31/2020 2:42:09 PM PDT by byecomey
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To: janetjanet998

And yet the GOP is still gaining. I would never describe that as horrible. GOP IPEV gains today are at about 33K, while the Dems’ overall FL early vote lead has been cut to just over 90K. That’s from a high of almost half a million just 10 days ago. Today is a very good day!


276 posted on 10/31/2020 2:46:35 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: janetjanet998

“last year dEMS gained 52K the Sunday before the election”

Tomorrow will tell us much about what we might call early cannibalization.

The more general issue is simply the lead. 91K is 3.6% of the expected remaining votes to come in Tuesday.

Elections guy is looking for 11-12M total and 8.6M have already voted. A guy posted earlier ED scoring by Reps well in excess of 3.6 year after year, but the less burden the better.


277 posted on 10/31/2020 2:51:23 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

But honestly, how can anyone reliably predict the remaining vote given the Wuhan Virus impact? Will Democrats really stay home, or have an awesome turnout? Will Republicans really blow Dems out of the water on 11/3, or turn out to be chicken?


278 posted on 10/31/2020 2:53:49 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

Today is a very good day!


I was referring more to the last couple of hours

what happened? why the R IPEV + tailoff?

It doesn’t bode well for tomorrow afternoon when we will missing most of our counties if it is this weak now even with them

last update

5:48 R’s only had a +35 IPEV vote while D’s gained 127 mail ins so Dems +92 net


279 posted on 10/31/2020 2:55:28 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Coop

“I am feeling left out”

There is still time. Just wait.


280 posted on 10/31/2020 2:55:37 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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