[Owen]

“last year dEMS gained 52K the Sunday before the election”

Tomorrow will tell us much about what we might call early cannibalization.

The more general issue is simply the lead. 91K is 3.6% of the expected remaining votes to come in Tuesday.

Elections guy is looking for 11-12M total and 8.6M have already voted. A guy posted earlier ED scoring by Reps well in excess of 3.6 year after year, but the less burden the better.

[Coop]

But honestly, how can anyone reliably predict the remaining vote given the Wuhan Virus impact? Will Democrats really stay home, or have an awesome turnout? Will Republicans really blow Dems out of the water on 11/3, or turn out to be chicken?

[Coop]

Pulled my previous info from Speedy's 10/23 FL thread & tweaked. These were counties that started IPEV on 10/24:

• Bay (IPEV ends 11/3)
• Glade (ends 10/31)
• Gulf (ends 11/3)
• Hamilton (ends 10/31)
• Suwanee (ends 11/1)
• Union (ends 10/31)
• Walton (ends 10/31)

How did [the above counties] vote in Nov 2016?

2016 United States presidential election in Florida:

• Bay: Trump - 71.1%, Clinton - 24.9% [87,450]
• Glades: Trump - 68.8%, Clinton - 29.2%
• Gulf: Trump - 73.1%, Clinton - 23.6% [7,293]
• Hamilton: Trump - 63.1%, Clinton - 34.9%
• Suwanee: Trump - 76.4%, Clinton - 21.2% [18,694]
• Union: Trump - 80.2%, Clinton - 17.8%
• Walton: Trump - 76.6%, Clinton - 20.4%

Bold text indicates GOP counties continuing to vote after today. Numbers in brackets are total 2016 votes acc to Wikipedia. This list is not intended to be all inclusive. There are other counties that will continue early voting; some could be GOP friendly. I'll leave that for someone else to research.