Posted on 10/29/2020 8:30:25 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Among early voters, Trump trails badly at 64/26, but then again, Democrats are the voters turning out early. John Pudner calculates that Biden has to win 70% of the early vote. If that’s the case, then the Election Day turnout could swamp that lead — and that favors Trump by nearly twenty points, 54/35. Forty percent of all votes will come in on Election Day, SUSA finds, but only 31% say they have already voted.
Also, Jason Lewis is within the MoE of Tina Smith, 42/45. The demos tell a similar story as with Trump. Lewis had to get off the campaign trail this week after emergency hernia surgery, but he and Trump have a superior ground game in place, too. If it’s really this close, that ground game will make all the difference. At Instapundit, David Bernstein also notes that Trump’s favorability advantage will increase that ground-game advantage:
Survey USA shows Biden and Trump even in favorability, 44-44, with Trump way ahead in “extremely favorable,” 27% to 16%, suggesting greater enthusiasm for Trump. Seems to me these numbers put Trump in striking distance, and if I were going to expect any big surprise this year, it would be in the state that saw the worst summer rioting. Turnout is a huge wildcard, and Minnesota always seems to disappoint Republicans, but this is one to keep an eye on.
Bernstein’s not kidding about perpetual disappointment here. As I always emphasize, Republicans have not won a statewide election in Minnesota in fourteen years, which is one reason to remain skeptical. However, all the chaos here might have undermined Democrats’ standing as a governing party. Let’s just say that we should not be surprised to be surprised next week.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
As they say, "liars figure and figures lie."
B..Bu..But Pillsbury doughboy Stirewalt was just on FNC gleefully reporting that Cook just moved MN from lean to likely Dem.
So what gives???
Analpundit has to be crying in his soy milk over there.
Can't stand him, almost as bad as Donna Brazille
Any chance that Ilhan Omar may be voted out? THAT would be an accomplishment that puts the cherry on the sundae.
I know, her district is probably composed of the greatest percentage of brain-dead robovoters anywhere in Minnesota. But the victory is still within reach, and marginalization is almost as good as actual turning out of office might be.
I think November 4th and a Trump re-election some moves by the DOJ could remedy this country of that idiot. Also, some moves at re-districting by the Minn legislature would prevent a Somali minority from electing one of their own and getting a person who is at least grateful to be here. She is a loathsome useless twat like the rest of the squad.
While the ONLY thing we can go on now are polls, I think we are getting close to the time to just ignore them.
Either the plane is taking off (to win) or we are going to screw ourselves into the ground. There is no safe landing at this point.
So I am simply going to pull back on the stick and pray for the best.
Watch Chris talk about in 2016 when Trump was making a play for PA...it’s hilarious and sad for a man to be that wrong
Cook s a joke.
Amen
That fat clown reminds me of the Cat-in-the-Hat on a solid diet of goat$H!+.
My wife and I voted for Trump in-person early yesterday here in Minnesota. I know numerous people who have either voted in-person or by absentee ballot, and all have voted for Trump.
Congrats.
It has been a long time since we carried MN, but this should be the year it actually happens.
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