Posted on 10/28/2020 7:44:55 AM PDT by Kaslin
Bill Nelson, former Florida senator, once said “So goes Florida, so goes the country.” He wasn’t just referring to the 2000 election. Or to Florida’s 29 electorate votes, the third largest after California and Texas. He was referring to an interesting historical fact: in 21 of the last 23 elections, the candidates who won Florida emerged as the eventual winners of the presidential races. The exceptions were Bush’s 1992 and Nixon’s 1960 defeats.
If history is any indication, the key to Trump’s re-election is by winning Florida. The latest poll average shows the race is statistically tied with Trump 47.2% and Biden 48.7%. But aggregate polls tend to obscure the dynamic changes in the voters’ candidate preferences especially among the demographic groups that can decide the election. To understand it, let’s examine the changes in voters’ preferences among Florida’s Hispanic/Latino, Black, and senior voters.
Latino Voters
Clinton won Florida’s Latino votes by 27% margin (62% to 35%) in 2016. An average of 10 polls in September showed Biden led Trump among Florida’s Latino voters by only 7% margin (50% to 43%). The latest polls gave similar results. Biden led Trump by only 11 and 7 points with Trump’s numbers remain at 43%. The support for Trump is similar to the results of the 2018 statewide elections. The then Republican governor and senate candidates, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott, won 44% and 46% of Latino votes, respectively.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
It may in fact be Latino and black voters who put Trump over the edge for the win nationally. We shall see!
FIFY
Many Latino’s don’t speak or understand English. So how are they included in the polls?
Yes that’s the running wisdom. But I feel like Latin women may be a different story. :)
Yup. The “I Dream Of Jeannie Lane” sign kept getting stolen in Cocoa Beach. And, I don’t have one. LOL!
Since they can IMAGINE that, I’ll predict Trump wins CA and NY!
We FL folks used to call him “Space Boy Nelson”.
He may have been an astronaut, but I think he got one too many cosmic rays to the head.
OMG!! Would you check out that navel?!
Find out next week.
I think President Trump will carry FL. The critical states for him to win the EC are PA and MI.
Physicians’ offices in FL are having trouble filling appointments for November 3, 2020.
I wonder why.
Florida has backed the winner in every election since 1928 except 1960 (when Nixon actually did win though) and 1992 (which Bush MIGHT have won without Perot).
But it’s more Republican than the country. Trump needs to win Florida (and will) but Biden can win without it. Florida is the key to the screen door, not the main door.
Cubans in FL sure.
Blacks staying home is probably a bigger factor than blacks voting Trump. We’re talking about mitigating the massive damage they cause by voting so heavily rat. Other than 1964, democrats have not won the white vote since 1948.
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