Posted on 10/28/2020 6:30:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 620,908
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 374,996
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 245,912
“The unanswered QUESTION...
How many DEMOCRATS voted REPUBLICAN?”
Actually that’s one of two unanswered questions. The second question is the one we don’t want to ask. It’s the easiest approach to just assume that they cancel each other out and that independents split evenly. The easiest approach is not always the most accurate, however.
As to another built-in assumption regarding the pre-election day vote in states like FL & NC which are so closely monitored, which is that election day turnout will massively favor Republicans as it purportedly has done in other years:
We heard a lot about Democrats “cannibalizing” while voting by mail — meaning that they are simply using up votes which would otherwise have been cast later and therefore are really gaining nothing in the end — yet there is silence about how REPUBLICANS via in-person early voting (and to some degree by mail) are “cannibalizing” their election day vote.
If true, might that not cause the election-night-Republican-landslide! to be weaker sauce than needed?
~120K votes
“You sure? Aren’t there only a few days left of early voting? Also, won’t the hurricane impact early voting a bit? Seems like it will be close to 2016, which given the DEM fraud machine this year, isn’t enough.”
I think we may enter Election Day at similar numbers to 2016.
Election Eve 2016, Ds led by 96k.
I think current Florida numbers are heading towards 120k D lead by Election Day this year.
120k D lead is very winnable on Election Day.
Keep the Faith.
It could, but in both FL and NC (states Trump won in 2016) the GOP made significant net gains in voter registration. And they have a significant enthusiasm edge. We have been talking about this a lot. It is not an unasked question.
Panhandle counties closing at 3pm vs 7pm today and opening up at 11am tomorrow vs 7am because of hurricane
if we get +48K both days(+54.5 yesterday) without some of them it would be good day IMO
Exactly. Looks like the REPs in Duval might catch the DEMs with IPEV by the end of the week.
Some republican political consultants have strongly recommended...
If you’re voting RED vote as early as possible IF you live in a RED county (district).
If you’re voting RED vote as early as possible IF you live in a BLUE county (district).
The reasons are obvious.
Other unspoken reasons:
Possibe violence scaring away voters on election day (maybe not you) but others who planned on voting red.
Possible abuse using Covid-19 to close the polls on Election Day by democrats to suppress the vote.
Let’s NOT let them count 30% of the votes (early first ones first) before even getting to the Election Day votes and the media put pressure on Trump to concede before they even start counting your Election Day cast ballot.
Let’s make this a fast victory
Correction:
If you’re voting RED vote as early as possible IF you live in a RED county (district).
If you’re voting RED vote ON ELECTION DAY IF you live in a BLUE county (district).
Aww, you just burst my bubble! But good info, thanks.
Watched the video.
Of course, Jake had a couple of facts wrong but he definitely understands what is happening.
I’ve read Jake Novak columns for many years at CNBC. In addition to Joe Kernen, the 2 sensible voices over there.
Jake has actually written positive stories on CNBC about Trump and Trump’s tariff policies I support.
“Jake Novak on success of Trump’s threat of tariffs’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=066d-YH-8gQ
“Wall Street is terrified about Trump’s tariffs, but it needs to cool off and look at the big picture”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/wall-street-needs-to-chill-out-about-trumps-tariffs.html
Are you willing to wager your continued participation on this forum on the outcome of Florida? Yes or no.
If yes, let’s bet. If no, shut your Soros sucking pie hole.
“If you’re voting RED vote ON ELECTION DAY IF you live in a BLUE county (district).”
That is me. My precinct is heavily GOP. The COUNTY is all in for Democrats. All the early voting sites are in liberal areas. Me? I’ll vote in my precinct on Election Day, where the poll workers are likely to be Trump supporters!
“So, a suppressed R turnout on Election Day would be a problem? I ask because you know it’s coming. While I like to believe Trump will win FL, none of this is much of a warm fuzzy.”
Keep the Faith.
I’m feeling good about FL. I worry about winning 1 of MI/WI/MN/PA.
Catowner is a concern troll.
Can anybody summarize Jake’s video on twitter? All I get is a spinny wheel......
Here is a cry for help from the Jon Ralston blog in Nevada:
Updated, 10 PM, 10/27/20
Remember I told you the pattern has been that the GOP does best on the 10th and 11th day of early in-person voting?
The Tuesday numbers look very much like the Monday numbers — gain of about 5K combined in Washoe and Clark.
Let’s see what the mailbag brings overnight and tomorrow.
Clark firewall could be as low as 67K and statewide lead could be down below 50K. Dems lead in Washoe still a robust 5K, but dropping.
To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark — they are not on track to get either with three days left.
That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.
*********************
The Dem firewall in Nevada may be breached today in Nevada. So Sad! (Not!). Check Ralston’s blog later this morning.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Thanks for the info.
Could slow Rs down today and tomorrow.
I sensed a little bit of that myself. I wasn’t quite sure.
It’s down to 240,000 now.... this is amazing.
first batch of numbers today off Election CZARs data(he may have missed the first few votes for today)
EV Rep + 5815
mail Dem +234
net Rep +5581
an interesting stat is how much the Dem ratio mail in lead is against the Rep early vote lead
in other words how many EV gains for Rep vs a mail in gain from the Dems
24.8:1 so far which is excellent , yesterday it was
10.7:1 yesterday
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