Posted on 10/27/2020 5:55:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 615,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 312,828
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 302,282
Sumter is pouring it on now.
33.5% lead vs 33.0 4 years ago.
And you know they’re spent.
Broward at 21.19%
Maybe Friday they can finally pass 2016’s 21.70%
They do take the leisurely path.
At the beginning of IPEV all counties were Advantage Biden.
Quickly flipping through the counties, probably half are now Advantage Trump.
Will be most counties by Friday.
I noticed this twitter comment from this afternoon:
Fla Mom (Parler FlaMom)
@Fla_Mom
“In my N. Fla rural county, we have set voting records each day. I was a poll watcher for the 1st 2 days; the # of adults voting for the 1st time was amazing. I doubt they were voting for Biden, lol.”
It encapsulates how Trump won FL in 2016. It was the rural counties, setting voting records, even in small ones, that added up and overcame counties like Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach which had high numbers for Hillary. This time, if repeated, the rurals will be high, AND INPEV (R) vote will have held back a deluge of Dade/Broward/Palm VBM votes so theoretically it should be a bigger win.
With Sumter, some analyst wrote that if Rs weren’t outvoting Ds 2 to 1, then Trump was in trouble.
No worries on that count.
My goal is 2.5 to 1
Umich has VBM return rate difference down to 2.8%.
Last update on VBMs was a net R gain! I’ve seen that briefly happen first thing in the morning, but never this late. Could we start seeing more R VBMs than D?
Be still my beating heart!
That be Dave Wasserman.
He thinks seniors have abandoned Trump. With Sumter, average age 69, being in the vanguard.
I think he will be wrong.
Oh you are right.
Ravi says VBM gap down to 2.8
Wasserman hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.
“What a few people seem to have a hard time understanding is that a world in which FL/NC are close can also be a world in which GA/TX are also very close, while Biden still has a clear edge in all the states he needs for 270 (AZ/MI/PA/WI).”
SO what are the VBM numbers today. Earlier I thought DEMS gained by 5K ??
That’s why we closed the VBM return rate gap. Now it all makes sense!
Where’s this nugget?
Cunningham up +3 in NC Senate (with D poll firm)
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1321190388464537603
Cunningham up +1 in NC Senate
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1321183713573654530
I think Tillis holds on. Trump pulls him across.
6,373. Day before was 14,000.
I think the dramatic drop is because most people who vote by mail are nervous to mail their ballots so close to the election that it might not be there to be counted on election day. This close to election day, fewer and fewer ballots will be coming in. On the other hand, in-person voting should remain steady or even intensify as we get closer and the procrastinators get to the polls.
These two factors look very good for Republicans
Tillis should be good, IMHO.
And Rs broke 50k in net gains today
+50,906
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