Posted on 10/26/2020 8:16:50 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 222
As of 10/25/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities fell off by 342 cases from the previous day, to come in at 442
yesterday. That was a 1.34% decrease from the same day the previous week.
New Cases dropped off by 19,732 from the day before, to come in at 61,247
yesterday. That was a 35.70% increase from the same day the week before.
This was the second highest single day for New Cases, and second only to
the day before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities grew fell by 1,350 cases from the previous day, to come in at 4,222
yesterday. That was an 11.11% increase from the same day the previous week.
New Cases fell by 52,543 cases from the day before, to come in at 401,780
yesterday. This was an 21.22% increase from the same day the week before.
Now 21.22% is an impressive percent, but it doesn't reveal there were over
71,000 more New Cases yesterday, than on the same day last week. Ouch!
New Global Milestone
The Global Community saw it's 33 millionth resolved case yesterday.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations fell by 19,732 cases yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
That category took another hit yesterday.
The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily now.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases rose by 29,918 cases yesterday.
Serious/Critical cases rose by 8 cases on the day. That was a little lower
than it has been in the last few days, and nice to see.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
This area has been looking a little better day by day, for around a month now.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
The Active Cases are rising day by day. Using this metric we are experiencing
a new wave at this time. About all we can do is wait to see how severe it
becomes.
I reference it as the third wave, but Fauci has let it be known, he still thinks
we're on the first wave. He may be right. I'm not sure what the scientific
requirements are to declare a wave over. If it settles down, that seems like
an end to me, and the chart looks for all the world like a third wave is in full
swing now.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing fell off by close to 131,000 tests yesterday, to come in at
1,020,835 tests.
Postive test percentages rose even higher on the 14-day chart line. The
3-day and single-day chart lines dropped. Keep it up... drop more...
As long as the 3-day and Single-day positives remain high, the 14-day will
creep up. Look how much it has crept up already.
Positve Percentages are clearly rising in the body of people being tested
in recent days. I use the 14-day figure when addressing this. The other
figures are too volitale to make reasoned long term claims about.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to watch.
The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.
The Active Case line is rising.
I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.
Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.
You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Illinois and Missouri took the top spots yesterday.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case Declarations fell of by 52,548 yesterday.
The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again, and it appears we will
fall below 76.00% tomorrow, if this trend continues.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose by 165,144 cases, in accordance with the large number
of New Cases declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up on the
right. Look up the column to see how it has changed over the last month.
This is a very big number for this metric. Not good. What it means is
that we have a larger body of people who are struggling to remain alive.
We want that number to be as small as possible.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
The middle/important number fell off yesterday, yet look how big it remains.
Ouch! It's hard to believe it is now that size of a daily number.
Global and domestic numbers fell here yesterday. Glad to see it.
The blue line depicting New Cases, is still trending up steadily.
It appears to be coming close to the peak of the second wave. Sure
would like to see this miderate shortly.
Dag nabbit!
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Global Active Cases are growing considerably, and both the above charts are
showing an uptick more clearly each day now. The format of the graph is
looking considerably modified in recent days over the past.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Spain has appearantly moderated. Lets give it a few more days to make
sure that isn't a momentary blip. France has seemingly overtaken based
on numbers. Look down below the numbers above, to see how they fare
when it comes to the per million categories.
All these nations have taken a turn for the worse here. Sorry to see
that.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.
The Netherlands is still going up about as strong as it can go.
The other nations are being dwarfed by it's continue growth.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
The United States has taken the top spots a few times over the last
week, but India came in to take the top spot on Fatalities yesterday.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.
In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We wound up at 76.108% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. We slipped
down a bit. As the new wave of cases grow, this percentage won't fare well.
we may fall below 76.00% tomorrow.
Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose up normally for the number of New Cases declared
yesterday.
Serious/Critical cases rose. The total there is a large number.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Fatalities in the United States dropped off to 442 yesterday, and for the
first time in a while it was lower than the same day the week before.
That was by 1.34%.
The other areas fell off also, it being a Sunday.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
That 442 Fatalities yesterday was nice to see, particularly because it was
less than on the say day the week before.
That last weekly hump there looks different than the others. It was a tough
week.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.
Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
In grouping six there, we have another massive increase over the same
day the week before. (70,345 more) Lets hope we see some relief from
this sort of thing soon.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.
Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.
We remained in 19th place yesterday.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
For this graph
Why do you do 3 day and 14 day averages and not 7 days?
Also why don't you include all relevant data going back to mid March which provides so much more perspective of where we are at in the entire epidemic?
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 26.
Data from PA Department of Health, numbers as of midnight October 25-26
LTC deaths = 5702 (zero increase since 10/24, believe it or not)
Total deaths = 8673 (increase of 12+7 since 10/24)
Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of cumulative total = 65.7%
Over the past fortnight the LTC deaths have averaged around 12/day, albeit in a crazy oscillation between days with zero or single digits followed by what appear to be “corrections” well into the double digits.
So based on that pattern I ascribe ZERO credibility to two consecutive days with allegedly ZERO LTC deaths.
My bravo sierra meter is totally pinged.
I toyed around with seven days, and you should have seen the
results. It wasn’t much better than what you see for the
one and three day. I tried ten days also, but it wasn’t
until I got out to 14 days that it leveled off enough to
make a smooth transition.
I had to cut off data at some point, because it would be
very hard for folks to download this whole thing if I
didn’t.
Every daily update is still online. If people want to
go back one month, two, five, they still can.
In addition, I didn’t have records going back farther
than this chart shows for ‘testing’.
In “Here are more of our numbers...”
You have 2.886,17 active cases.
In “ Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.”
it seems you have 239,510 *accumalitive* active cases.
Ready to be berated for missing something very obvious! LOL!
I just finished graphing seven day average death for the U.S., NY, TX and CA , the top five in death totals, and it looks good. Very smooth.
I normalized per million and it’s quite telling.
I wish I could post it here.
Under “Here are more of our numbers...”
For active cases, I see 2,866,171 active cases in the
United States. I believe that is correct. I went back
and checked.
Okay, but ifinnegn, these are positive testing figures.
One day they are 4.00% and the next 8.00%. It’s all over
the map at times. You can see how jagged they are.
For deaths, I don’t use a fourteen day average.
I’ll have to look that up later. I have to capture some
data right now.
Will check the other number a little later...
And the “In “ Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.”
it seems you have 239,510 *accumalitive* active cases.”
Isn’t? “
Again, quite prepared to be shown to be idiotic!
Thanks .
Appreciate what you do!
And expect to be shown I’m missing something obvious.
The fundamental problem is that there is no universal standard definition of a “case”.
Is a “case”:
° a positive test - asymptomatic ?
° a positive test - symptomatic ?
° a symptomatic patient requiring medical intervention ?
° a symptomatic patient requiring hospitalization ?
° a symptomatic patient requiring ICU hospitalization ?
° a sypmptomatic patient requiring ICU hospitalization with a ventilator ?
In the absence of a clear definition the fearmongers are using the increased number of “cases” (perfectly normal with increased testing) to paint a gloom and doom “dark winter” scenario.
My thought about case declarations is that they are a
documentation of just about any of those categories.
I don’t get worked up about the total cases in a fear
sense, as much as just marveling at how many of these
tests they can process in a day.
Now I will say that as the declarations have gotten
larger recently, the serious/critical number has also
expanded.
The last “what I term” wave, we saw elevated Fatalities
about six after the numbers started to rise.
Last week we had our first over 1,000 Fatality day in
a while, and that concerned me. Are we doing to go
into the 1000s again? I hope not.
For those who support the herd immunity concept, these
elevated numbers should encourage them, not discourage
them.
Count me as encouraged.
In “ Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.”
It seems you have 239,510 *accumalitive* active cases.
- - - -
What you are looking at there, is the number of fatalities
at midnight last night. I subtract the previous day’s
ending figure, and that tells me how many fatalities there
were yesterday.
The ending figure was 230,510. You may have a bit of a
vision problem. Some days recently I’ve been almost blind.
I had an eye infection, and it gave me fits for a while there.
At any rate, the fatality number for the day was 442.
Be sure to revert to the label at the top of those
columns. That should help you to know exactly what
you are looking at.
I don’t mind the questions. Any time...
You're looking at daily charting, and each rise and fall is
generally a week.
Hope this is more to your liking.
” a bit of a
vision problem.”
Nah, just missing something obvious.
As I suspected.
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