Posted on 10/26/2020 6:45:28 AM PDT by bort
Good news and bad news:
Bad news: Republicans were out-voted yesterday in early voting, albeit by only 2K votes.
Good news: Yesterday (Sunday), should have been the Democrats best day of early voting, with "souls to the polls" and massive weekend GOTV drives. Republicans actually won "souls to the polls" WEEKEND by 1K votes. The Democrats have cannibalized their election day vote. They are running out of "souls" to bring to the polls.
Democrats--1,281,302 (40.40%) (+25K yesterday)
Republican-952,136 (30.02%) (+23K yesterday)
Unaffiliat-924,243 (29.14%) (+22K yesterday)
Black vote: On what should have been the high watermark for black early voting, the black share of the electorate remained flat this weekend, going from 20.55% on Friday to 20.58% yesterday, which is great news. Black turnout should decline %-wise every day through the election.
Translation: Dems continue to benefit from their overwhelming advantage in mail-in ballots (almost 3:1 advantage); however, the mail-ins are starting to dry up, which means that Republicans should win every remaining day of early voting, which are increasingly becoming more in-person.
The black share of the electorate is the key. Dems need 22.5% of the electorate to be black. It is more likely that black turnout will be under 20% than 22.5%. At the current 20.58%, Trump and Tillis would win.
Finally, for those unfamiliar with NC, Republicans save their best for last, and will significantly out-vote Dems on election day. Rs trailed Ds by 310K at the conclusion of early voting 2016 and won NC by 3.8 points. While the current 329K Dem lead may look daunting, I expect this number to drop in half by election day. NC looks good for us.
Wow, thank you! I will update the NC numbers shortly - they’re currently from yesterday’s.
It’s hard to tell D vs R for/against Trump because several rallies have shown that 41% of those that attended were Republicans. That’s 59% are Dems and Ind——
The Unaffiliated are a big percentage. How are they likely to break? Is there a potential for a surprise (good or bad) with them?
I'm in NC and was having a similar thought process. I certainly wasn't going to "trust the system" by mailing in a ballot, so in-person was my only real choice. As to voting on Nov. 3, in addition to the Covid-19 concern you shared, there's certainly also the potential for very long lines, poor weather, and protests or disruptions by the socialist left, including Antifa & BLM. As I work across the street from an early-voting location, I decided that early-voting was way better than facing the uncertainties of going to the local polling place on Nov. 3. I voted this past Friday, after leaving the office. I was in and out in less than 15 minutes. I'd highly recommend it so you know your vote is in the bank!
If he is going to Broward, he is clearly in deep trouble
I would vote early just in case...
A significant majority of “Unaffiliated” are Trump voters afraid of being doxxed.
The mass media narrative after the election will be that they “broke” for Trump at the last minute.
The reality is they were always for Trump.
The Unaffiliated are a big percentage. How are they likely to break? Is there a potential for a surprise (good or bad) with them?
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The U’s are disproportionately white males. I think they lean Trump a good bit.
Voted here in commie Broward...
There is no way of knowing. Likewise there is no way of knowing how registered dems and reps voted either. These sort of analyses may show enthusiasm, but little else.
“Trolls to the polls”
Will probably follow your advice. Checking into it further.
Ping
Yes!
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