Posted on 10/26/2020 6:19:06 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 608,737
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 254,083
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 354,654
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%”
Gap down to 5.9 points from 15.9 at its high.
Good? Bad?
D VBM return rate is 66.8%. Yesterday was 65.3%
R VBM return rate is 63.2%
3.6 point gap.
More VBM added yesterday than I expected for a Sunday.
Rs cutting into D lead with in person early voting.
Rs can win if combined lead is under 300k.
Better margin of safety if under 200k.
By comparison, Ds combined lead was 96k in 2016.
I’m hopeful.
IF we can get back to taking a full point off the lead starting today, then by end of day Thursday, we should be DEAD EVEN in early vote (VBM + IBEV) and whatever we can accomplish on Friday would be gravy.
I think we are in excellent shape here if we can continue the momentum this week that we had last week. Also, on Saturday, the rest of the red counties opened up for IPEV. And no more VBM ballots are going out as we are past the deadline to request those.
Souls to the Polls. I hate that phrase. But this occurred over the weekend. This is traditionally a big push among black churches to get their people to the polls. They put them on buses after service and then have a big lunch for them when they return. That, I believe, is the essence of "Souls To The Polls." Maybe others can elaborate further.
“Rs can win if combined lead is under 300k.”
Based on last week’s numbers, getting under 300k seems to be doable — unless the pace this week slows considerably simply because most IPEVs have already voted, which is probably exactly what will happen, but we’ll see.
It sure doesn’t look like getting under 200k is likely, and getting down to 96k (the 2016 figure) is nigh impossible given the current trends. Election day turnout, Democrat/COVID scare tactics notwithstanding, is going to have to result in a very significant advantage for the good guys.
Do you expect that total number of EV cast over the remainder of the EV period to be more like the first 2 days of IPEV or the last 2? (Over 500k per day versus around 370k per day).
Why is it assumed that all Dem registrants are voting for Biden?
Speedy. If your numbers of a 294K D lead on Election Day are still current then we are in excellent shape here. I’m thinking we should be down about 175-200K going into Election Day.
Ping for later.
There will certainly be a lot of Dems voting for Trump, especially as Trump has increased his support among Hispanics and Blacks, who traditionally vote (and are registered) Democrat.
On the other hand, there are supposedly frightened housewives in the suburbs who normally would vote for Trump but are scuttling over to Biden on account of MSM-induced COVID anxiety.
I'm not sure about the latter having a big impact but certainly we can expect a good number out of the Democrats this year going for Trump. But there's really no way to assess that until the votes start getting counted.
In 2016, Election Eve was Ds 42.5% - Rs 36.5% in combined early vote.
6 point gap. We are already in that range today.
But we should expect Ds to have a net add next weekend. I say this because in 2016 the weekend before election D counties were open for voting and R counties were generally closed.
So I think we close the gap M-F and gap opens up again on the weekend.
Maybe gap closes to within 1-2 points by Friday and widens to 3 points over the weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised with a 3 point gap by election day.
On the other hand, there are supposedly frightened housewives in the suburbs who normally would vote for Trump but are scuttling over to Biden on account of MSM-induced COVID anxiety.
—
Their thinking would have to be along the lines of, “I’ve been locked up for 8 months. I want Biden so I can remain in forced lockup for another 8 months. Oh, and get rid of my tax cut too!”
Sweet. Miami-Dade IPEV number is great.
not a good day
only +9K for the good guys
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