I’ll have to disagree partially on that. It almost always follows that Libertarian candidates pull more from the GOP (and have cost the GOP countless races as a result). Now whether Johnson not being the candidate would’ve meant NM would’ve gone to Trump is probably unlikely, but the bulk of his votes would’ve gone to Trump. Without a serious Libertarian this time (who will likely take just 1%), those votes will again largely close the gap for Trump in the state. I think he will narrowly (a la 2004) pull it off.
The GOP needs to also run against the unpopularity of the Demonrat Governor. If Ronchetti gets within a few points (hopefully he’ll win), it’s expected he’ll be the leading choice to take out Lujan Grisham in 2022.
I agree in almost all other scenarios. Not this one.
Pistols at dawn?
The Journal also endorsed the Dem candidate for NM-2, Torres-Small who is an attractive progressive lib candidate in moderate clothing. She supports (or so she says) the NM oil and gas industry but votes with Pelosi 95% of the time and voted for Trump’s impeachment. She was a staffer for radical environmental retiring Senator Tom Udall and if Biden/Harris are elected their policies would overcome whatever objections she may have to the banning of drilling on federal land and fracking. On top of the that, the Pub candidate and former state legislator, Yvette Herrell, is deeply flawed having been caught with getting NM government contracts for her own family and extravagant spending on trips and such (NM doesn’t pay its legislators).
Trump will easily win SE New Mexico (see my tag line). We had a Trump car rally Saturday that went 86 miles from Jal to Tatum and had over 400 vehicles from motor cycles to 18-wheelers and everything in between. His margin here might also drag Herrell with all her blemishes over the line too.
You think if dude wins the Senate race he’d immediately turn right around and run for Governor?