Posted on 10/23/2020 7:33:05 AM PDT by hcmama
My information is coming from a GOP activist in Florida who is very well connected. It does not get any better than that. He is in with the pollsters, election commission and you name it. His information is first hand from the source.
Because I lived overseas for so many years and could realistically vote, I tend to watch US elections somewhat dispassionately. I really think Trump has this in the bag. But, if your information is correct, he’ll need a bigger bag.
Should had written: “could NOT realistically vote overseas”
Polls are a measure of movement or trends. These polls are showing a red wave. Trump is in very good shape. The current EV is going 350 to 363 + by same pollster. The Dems are looking at significant losses in the House and Senate too. Got some updated coming for House and Senate races. There are a surprising number of Blue state senators who are trailing and struggling. This guys data is showing the Democrats losing voters as we have seen in stories on this forum.
So a 1968 Nixon type landslide. I remember 1984 and 49 states. I don’t think we’ll ever see that again. But, that win helped Reagan because it really silenced the political left. Too bad GHW Bush couldn’t have been a little more politically savvy and kept that coalition together.
“Maybe he is just running up the score.”
That’s what winners do. :-)
Barring any huge development, Trump will have a decisive victory on election day. And this is what the country needs to avoid a contested election.
You have take the riots, Covid-19 and impeachment into consideration. These have left a bad taste in Dems and Indies mouths towards the Democrats. I see it in conversations all the time. Have many Democrats agree with me. They are voting straight GOP. They hate the leaders of their party as much as we do.
Bingo about early voting. In ‘00 with early voting Bush would have won without any post election drama. The story about his DUI would have had far less impact as it came out a week before the vote .
If President Trump wins Florida he wins the whole thing.
If you take the state that are in the bag for Trump, plus Florida, that puts him at 260 - he just needs ONE of PA, MI, WI, or MN to put him over the top.
If Biden loses Florida, he needs to sweep ALL FOUR of those battleground states, and then some.
Florida is key to the whole thing.
I’m hoping this is an ass-kicking, because if it’s close, they will drag it out for weeks.
Not that I don't want to believe!
They freely admit they've lied to pollsters for the joy of watching another election night meltdown by the media.
They believe, as do I, that they are an institution that works against our interests.
Do you have any state early voting data—any comparison with 2016 early voting by party (if you had it then).
That will give you an anchor to see who is turning out—2020 vs 2016.
If it is more than a +5% Republican difference, 2020 vs 2016, then Colorado begins to be in play, and I would expect the Trump campaign to hit Denver with ads in the last week or so.
If not, they probably won’t bother to do so.
One of my friends who lives there believes this to be true. There is a trend from all of the crap on the Democrats. They are hemorrhaging voters profusely. I’ve seen Gardner polls with him ahead and tied. National money is working differently with Winred too.
This is pretty typical as more Republicans tend to vote later or in person. On the other hand, there isn't any evidence of a Republican groundswell - yet.
I hope you are right about it all!
One piece of strangeness is that Gov. Polis, a far lefty, is doing commercials for Hickenlooper. I'm thinking he's trying to pull Hick across the line with the Dem base. It's not like Polis is wildly popular with Reps or indies.
It plays huge!!
In only one state where Trump is ahead, is it well within the margin of error (ME) at 2%.
Three others (NH, NV, MN) are *at* the margin of error at 3%.
Only one of the states Biden is leading (NJ) is he AT the margin of error.
NJ at 3%.
The other two are within the margin of error:
NM and OR at 1%.
and
CO and VA are tied.
Tie:
CO Trump 47 Biden 47
VA Trump 47 Biden 47
Undecideds usually stay home or break for the incumbent.
This has the makings of a Trumpslide...!
Well done with your analysis!!That is what these numbers say and it causes dismay to pearl clutchers and trolls!
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