Posted on 10/23/2020 6:57:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
One of the “gang” noted that TargetSmart changed their “modeling” for WI/OH/MI making it more favorable to Dems. They changed in the middle of the election. Tweeted out they were making a change. Maybe a week or so ago.
I think the net result was alot of R modeled voters being move to the Unaffiliated group.
I don’t think they liked Rs pointing to their data positively.
They are a D firm.
Haha haha. Explains why there’s such a big number of unaffiliateds in some states I wouldn’t expect.
As you would expect. They would generally be less engaged in the political process and thus more likely to lose/forget their ballot.
This morning D VBM return rate was 60.7%
If I did my calculations right, now Ds are at 62.9%. Still have Miami/Sarasota numbers to add.
Maybe 63 or 63.1 in the morning.
That would be around 2.3-2.4 increase for the day. Much better, as in slower returns.
Maybe the trajectory is bending. Whenever I think VBM Mania is over it gets a new life.
Yes and looks like VBM return difference is now 3.9%.
Quoting the first Dylan. Nice!!!
I’m also looking at “Others” catching the Dems in several red counties. Others are at Registration parity with the Dems in many red counties now so their votes should be roughly equal.
Yes, some of our friends on the left are starting to squirm a little. Jon Ralson (the Nevada guy) seems to be getting more cautious as each days votes are tabulated...:-)
Unbelievable schedule for Trump over the next few days.
Next TRUMP RALLIES:
SAT - Lumberton NC 1:30 pm EDT
SAT - Circleville OH 5:00 pm EDT
SAT - Waukesha WI 8:00 pm EDT
SUN - Manchester NH 2:00 pm EDT
MON - Lititz PA 1:30 pm EDT
MON - Martinsburg PA - 4:30 pm EDT
TUE - Lansing MI 2:00 pm EDT
TUE - West Salem WI 4pm CDT
TUE - Omaha NE 7:30 pm CDT
Peak at tomorrows numbers with trends, pending Miami/Sarasota updates.
Gap closes to 7.5 points from 15.9 points over 5 days.
10/24/20: REPs - 1,873,635, DEMs - 2,261,940, lead of 388,305 for DEMs, 43.4% to 35.9% —estimated
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
His energy and stamina at 74 is amazing.
I’ll probably be in a nursing home at 69.
Nicely done. Based on what I observed this morning while doing the manual update, the Sarasota/Miami-Dave numbers will shrink the gap a teeny bit.
Florida republicans have done a fantastic job this week.
Really hoping this same effort is happening everywhere else.
Is there a way on the map to compare turnout vs underlying book-closing registration statistics for each party?
Spreadsheet updated through end of day (except M-D/Sarasota)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=1601980327
Some notes:
Rs will hit match their 2016 VBM raw number tomorrow most likely. So its not like Rs aren’t still voting by mail. It’s just that Ds hit that so hard, they are obviously pulling from their IPEV and ED vote.
Also, if you combine IPEV and VBM, Rs are at 70% of their 2016 total, Ds are at 83%, and NPA are at 75%.
Pasco, Palm Beach and Marion are the stars of the show so far. All closing in matching their entire IPEV/VBM raw vote in 2016. M/D also performing well as we all know.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319735786309287939
According to progressives, Republicans have a net 560K pool of extremely likely voters remaining advantage over Democrats as of today. See link above. But don’t worry, they argue, because Biden will carry the NPAs!
Yeah good luck with that.
Yes, Trump has been crushing Biden nationwide in small-donor donations. And I remember seeing a map maybe a month or more ago. Trump was beating Biden in number of donors in Oregon, New Mexico, and many other states that he’s supposedly not going to be competitive in.
That’s good stuff, bort. Thanks. It’s important to read the other side and not get caught in an echo chamber. I think Trump carries FL by a few points, but I/we could be wrong. And there’s one possible scenario. I did not realize the GOP was getting beat in the new voter category in FL. Do you FL wizards agree or disagree?
Nice info. Thanks.
NPAs higher than I expected. I haven’t been following them too closely.
Daniel Smith was saying same thing about new voters.
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