Florida Early Vote update, 10/23/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/23/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517

[Rumierules]

In my Duval polling station watch:

There are 20 in Duval.

The 9th just switched from blue to red.
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Now at 10.

[Ravi]

Yeah saw that. Fingers crossed for MN.

[Owen]

cross tabs show slight over sample of GOP. 320 to 307 I think it was. Does AZ have majority GOP registrations?

[Owen]

Answer yes, GOP 34% Dem 32% in AZ, registration advantage.

[SpeedyInTexas]

But AZ down from 2016 reg lead.

[Coop]

A few questions: 1) Are there still R counties that haven’t started IPEV? If so, how much of a difference will they make? 2) How many more days of IPEV are there? Is it every day until Election Day? 3) Any counties really stand out? Good or bad?

I provided this data in post #11. But I only pinged one instead of all you fine folks.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3897078/posts?page=11#11

[Coop]

“Trump’s campaign is doing a last-minute reversal on Minnesota. Trump went dark on TV here this week — after six weeks of cutting reserved ad time — but campaign manager Bill Stepien says there will be a major a buy in the campaign’s final week.”

Can you please provide the source link? I want to put this on the House and Senate threads.

[SpeedyInTexas]

https://twitter.com/TheoKeith/status/1319660369212833793

https://twitter.com/TheoKeith/status/1319659726909677568

[Owen]

yeah, but 2016 had Gary Johnson from New Mexico getting 4%. Trump win 3.5%

Jo Jorgenson from South Carolina is this year’s libertarian. Maybe less grabbing power than a NM neighbor.

AZ registration 2016 GOP 34.54% Dem 30.41% Other 33.98%
AZ registration 2020 GOP 34.84% Dem 32.41% Other 31.91%

2% closure, via probably Greens.

Speaking of which I think Greens were kept off the PA ballots. 0.8% in 2016. If all went Hillary, flip.

[HamiltonJay]

Florida is not in play. NC is not in play.. OH is Not in Play.

Donald Trump will overperform his 16 numbers across the board, period.

This push polling manufactures idiotic nonsense needs to end

Have seen absolutely nothing to waver from the stance I have taken for a long time.

Trump performs across the board better than 16, in virtually every state.. wins all states he took in 16, and most if not all states he lost by less than 5 and don’t be shocked if he picks off a few he lost by 5 or more.

[Rumierules]

Trump performs across the board better than 16, in virtually every state.. wins all states he took in 16, and most if not all states he lost by less than 5 and don’t be shocked if he picks off a few he lost by 5 or more.
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I like your moxie.

[byecomey]

Amazing number crunching. Looking forward to what tomorrow’s GOP GOTV brings. Typically Saturdays have been a bit slower but I think tomorrow may be an exception.

[Coop]

Florida is not in play. NC is not in play.. OH is Not in Play.

Jay, as shown in a few of my threads, I happen to agree with you regarding outperforming 2016 and winning all states he lost by <5 points or less. But Trump's campaign schedule shows NC, FL, OH, NC, OH & FL some more. So perhaps you should make a call to DJT's campaign manager.

[lodi90]

POTUS would not be making so many stops in Florida if it was not “in play.” He’s coming here as much as any state on the map.

[EaglesTTT]

I actually wonder if he is more concerned about inflating his lead so they can call it early and move on. If FL hits recount, all the other late counting states can drag this thing out. If he wins FL big and sews up NC and AZ he only needs one of the rust belt states like PA, MI, WI, MN.

[Cathi]

Really difficult for analysts to decipher early voting this year....seems to be a lot of disagreement.

Target (Tom Bonier) enthusiastically interprets early WI vote being favorable to the dems:

“295,973 votes have been cast by voters in Wisconsin who didn’t vote in the ‘16 general election. They account for 27% of all early votes cast. Democrats have a modeled party ID lead of 17% with these surge voters, as compared to a lead of only 1% with those who did vote in ‘16.”

But I have to wonder if he isn’t doing an apple vs. orange comparison. Since vbm in WI this year to date is 6 times the rate of early in person voting and polls show that vbm is heavily weighted with dems because reps intend to vote on election day I don’t think you can draw his conclusion based on this.

And Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) sees an overall big increase this time in low propensity (only voted once or twice in past 20) voters which is going strongly to Trump.

And an experienced campaign data strategist sees the early MI vote this way:

“So many people are changing their voting behavior by voting early for the first time. Does not appear that there are a lot of new/lower propensity voters showing up on the dem side, Newly registered new voters that have already voted are Trump +17 which is a slightly stronger spot than this time 4 yrs. ago.

[Coop]

FL GOP IPEV advantage up to 191K.

[Cathi]

Oh, I think Florida is a given...:-) Which is why I have been starting to look into Michigan and Wisconsin.

Rich Baris (Peoples Pundit) showed some very interesting data yesterday on donations. In Mi and Wi small donations to Trump are 4 to 10 times those for Biden which historically is equated to enthusiasm for that candidate. (These are all the small donations from people, not the corporate funding.)

[lurk]

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/30/gov-rick-scott-removes-broward-elections-supervisor-brenda-snipes-from-office/

[SpeedyInTexas]

Oh, I get your point.

Ok.