Posted on 10/23/2020 6:57:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
“but this is my favorite daily update.”
Thanks for watching. It’s must read TV.
Numbers are bad, I get depressed. Numbers are good, I’m giddy.
And a grateful nation Thanks You.
“Changing your mind, Speedy?” Nope.
I’m feeling giddy today.
But don’t under estimate an 86% VBM return rate trajectory. I’m waiting for it to “bend”.
86% of Half there voters is scarrrry. Maybe its a D Halloween trick and they end at 74%. Not.
It is going to be interesting to see how many of those 2018 house losses are won back here.
The republican “never Trump” establishment reps (read: Rinos) that decided not to run again along with the “hot” Mueller investigation that created real doubt among Americans about Trump at that time and the frustrated feminists driven to back female so called “moderates” for Dem candidates to make up for losing the first female president all came together to create the perfect storm for the Dems in a mid-term election without Trump on the ballot.
I think we are going to see an “adjustment”...:-)
You mean VBM 86.3 or all votes 86.3.
“Just at book-closing statistics. Bay has 125,000 voters and Walton has 58,000. By registration totals, Bay is about 2.2 to 1 R to D by and Walton is about 3.5 to 1.”
I read my numbers from the wiki describing 2016 election. It appears this is where a big chunk of the GOP registration gain happened.
Those 70/30 ratios are same as 2016. I will stand down, the remaining red counties will net lots more than 20-30K net.
In the good ole days, Shotguns were used against the rioters.
Peoples Park 1969.
Berkeley had a Republican Mayor then. How the times have changed.
Now 401125. Will be in the 3s soon.
Funny how the whole Impeachment thing never came up once during the Debates.
D current trajectory is 86% in VBM. I know we all think it peters out. But hasn’t yet.
R current trajectory is 82% in VBM. But closing the gap.
VBM is 1/3 of R vote.
VBM is 1/2 of D vote. It is hard to image they can get that high with in person voting.
But it is 2020.
Let’s get the terminology right.
Never Trumpers were never Trump right up to their choice NOT to contest the nomination this year in primaries. They could have done that. That was their right.
They chose not to. They chose instead to support a Democrat. They did worse than even that.
They could have ran a primary challenge. They didn’t. They could have shut their mouths and voted Democrat in the voting ballot. They didn’t. They went public with Koch funding and tried to gather other Republican voters.
That makes them Quislings. Look it up re Norway. That is party treason. These people should never see another penny of donated money. They are not welcome at any GOP events. They are not welcome at any interviews. They are not welcome at any gathering of any Americans (of either party).
byecomey’s map is addictive.
In my Duval polling station watch:
There are 20 in Duval.
The 9th just switched from blue to red.
I am optimistic about flipping the House, even though there hasn’t been much talk about it. The numbers are in our favor. The $$ and incumbency are in their favor. But some headwinds are too strong. Not all the 2016 retirements were RINOs. Trump’s abrasive style can be exhausting, especially for someone facing a competitive race.
Fortunately or unfortunately not in his DNA. New Yorker through and through.
Just went sub 400k Dem lead.
Speedy, have you done any work on NM numbers lately? I am really curious if this oil comment fiasco could put NM in play. The Dem no is at 0.13 and would yield killer returns.
I noticed that. It was an error on their end not my end. Hillsborough update finally went through.
This is a good call. Not many people know how oil fracking extended west of the Texas border well into New Mexico.
Ha! My peacenik wife considered a handgun. I told her I’d probably just shoot my eye out...
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