COVID-19 Update - 10/20/2020

My own workup | 10/20/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 216

As of 10/19/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities rose by 44 cases from the previous day, to come in at 492
yesterday. That was a 55.70% increase from the same day the previous week.

New Cases rose by 23,720 from the day before, to come in at 68,854
yesterday. That was an 50.37% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities rose by 886 cases from the previous day, to come in at 4,686
yesterday. That was a 16.48% increase from the same day the previous week.

New Cases rose by 38,067 cases from the day before, to come in at 369,502
yesterday. This was a 23.89% increase from the same day the week before.

Increase of New Cases and Fatalities

Whatever reason you attribute it to, our numbers have increased considerably
from last week. Fatalities yesterday were up 55.70% and New Cases were up
50.37% from the same day just one week ago.

I don't see this as something that is going to cost Trump support. This is
a virus that there is no cure for. He can't control that. About all we can
do is carry on until a vaccine is developed. Where we once wondered if there
would indeed be one, I'm leaning toward thinking we'll have one not too long
from now.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 23,720 cases yesterday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
That category has been up one day down the next recently.

It's significant enough now to take note of it daily.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose by close to 22,800 cases yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases fell off by 121 cases on the day.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This area is looking a little better day by day.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The Active Case area is a very indicative of what is going on in any
location on this timeline. We can see how things have flattened twice here.
I don't particularly care for what happened last time, and I'm hoping it
won't happen again.

I think you can see the reason for my saying it looks like we may be seeing
evidence of the early days of a third wave. Hopefully things will cool off
and we'll drop instead. I can only address what it looks like at this moment
and reflect on that.

The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.

In the last few days before yesterday, Active Cases had risen a little. I'm
concerned about a third wave right how. Globally the cases are hot, and our
numbers are up a little also. Right now our average daily cases are higher
than they have been in seven seeks. I'm not sure how far beyond that it goes back.

Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me. Now I'm seeing troubling signs.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing rose up by close to 482,000 tests yesterday.

That 1,373,226 tests yesterday, was the largest number of tests run to date.

Positive percentages for the 14-day were up, but for the single-day and 3-day
figures, things looked better compared to the previous day.

The chart is moving almost imperceptively upward at this time.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line had flattened out, but now we're seeing an increase.
If this weren't a ten day averaging line, we might see more of an
increase in it's trajectory.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Wisconsin and Florida took the top spots yesterday. Wisconson hadn't reported
out their New Case number in three days. This is what resulted from that.

The day looked higher than it should in part because of them, but the last time
they reported before yesterday, they had a 3800 day.

I'm thinking the number yesteray was probably about 3,000 high, but that being
said, it was still too high a day.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declarations rose by 38,061 yesterday.

The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose in accordance with the large number of New Cases
declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up by 786 cases.

This is a very big number for this metric. Not good.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The middle/important number here rose as we head into the higher reporting
days of the week.

Numbers rose back up yesterday. Ours did as well, and Wisconson probably
over reported New Cases by about 3,000 cases yesterday, reporting out for the
first time in three days.

The blue line depicting New Cases, is still trending up steadily.

Dag nabbit!

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Global Actie Cases are growing considerably, and both the above charts are
showing an uptick more clearly each day now.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

After having to go both ways on Spain over a couple of days, I think it's
clear now that it has moderated some. I do want to warn today that it
did not report out new numbers on Sunday, so it coasted yesterday on a
number from two days ago. It won't look so rosy tomorrow, as the new
numbers come in and it's line track rises.

At times it's hard to come up with a definitive judgement here. We are
seeing five day intervals, and sometimes the first day of a new interval
can skew the picture a bit. By the end of the five-day, things generally
become a lot clearer.

France is still going up at a rapid rate and the United Kingdom is now on
the elevated rise program. Drat!

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Netherlands is just going ballistic. From 03/20 to 07/31, it rose
over time. In the 2.5 months since then I has more than tripled that
07/31 figure.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

What I like to do, is compare a nation to itself though, and it's not looking
good against its own earlier numbers.

We are also seeing a dynamic building, where the Netherlands numbers are going
so high, they are pushing down the other nation's lines on the chart. If
the top nations were around 100,000, 100,000 would be at the top of the
chart. When one nation goes to 200,000, it forces the 100,000 nation down
halfway in the chart. I suppose that's a good thing though isn't it.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States took the top spot for New Cases yesterday. Wisconson reported
out for the first time in three days, so their number was higher on the day than
it would/should have been, due to the accumulation.

That would have lowered the day's count by 3,000 or so, which would still leave
a very high number for the day.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line seem to be flattening more the other day, but
as I generally adivse, the next few days did tell, and the flattening
didn't materialize. Some days a single day can depict a false indication
and I believe that's what happened here.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We wound up at 77.276% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. We slipped
down a bit. As the new wave of cases grow, this percentage won't fare well.

Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up normally for the number of New Cases declared
yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases rose by 786 cases. 72.737 is a large number here.
It has gone up over 11k during the last month.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Fatalities rose up across the board yesterday.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

This 492 doesn't seem like such a big figure these days, but looking back to the
same day the week before, it represented a 55.70% increase compared to that day.

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

You can view the margins for yourself there. Yesterday was the last day in this
fiscal (if you will) week. Look at how far above the last high for the day it was.
You can see other days like that in the reporting week. I see five of them.

That's why I'm thinking of the global scene as a very strong numbers environment
right now. More to come...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We're been back in 20th again.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 20.

Data from the PA Department of Health as of midnight October 19-20.

http://www.health.pa.gov

LTC deaths = 5614 (increase of 5)
Total deaths = 8533 (increase of 33)

Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65.38%

WOOHOO—finally under 2/3.

If the numbers are believable, that is.

Maybe the virus has burned through the LTCs and killed off the most vulnerable.

But at least in my county, the facility-by-facility LTC reports mysteriously vanished at the end of last week.

Now the only daily facility-by-facility report is on schools.

Why?

Especially since according to D1’s excellent charts Pennsylvania now ranks 44/50 in terms of cases per 100,000 population!

[Jonty30]

I can see the US worked hard to pass Saint Pierre Miquelon.

[Paul R.]

Rumbles in KY of “stay at home orders” once more:

https://www.wave3.com/2020/10/20/gov-beshear-we-have-begun-state-surge-preparations-again-new-covid-cases-tuesday/