Posted on 10/20/2020 6:15:00 AM PDT by FR33DOM4ME
Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.
The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.
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Meh. It’s looked like 2016 from day one to me. Does anyone remember during the D primary debates all the candidates were ahead of trump by double digits? it was absurd on the face of it.
I learned a long time ago to ignore the public polls. That perspective was merely re-enforced in 2016.
“Suddenly”
48-46 is quite a familiar looking number.
But let’s do better than that this time around.
Take out California, New York and New England and Trump is winning big time in most states. Only overt, massive fraud will give Biden Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%”
I’m voting Libertarian to SEND A MESSAGE to purify the GOP. Just look at what Roberts did yesterday and also what Sasse said about Trump. Losing this election will teach them!!!! They’ll all become just like Trump if we get our asses kicked.
(just kidding, but I ran into a few of the above types here last weekend)
Was it 48-46 12 days out or on election day?
Wasn’t the gap 8.5 just over a week ago?
“the race is tightening”
Lemme rephrase what they really mean:
“Trump’s winning”
“Suddenly”
________________
Actually it is pretty sudden. This is a daily (5 day rollover) tracking poll and it went from Biden +9 on October 12 to Biden +3 today. Very big gain in a short period of time.
Biden peaked too early. Momentum is now with POTUS.
Just wait until the news starts covering Hunter Biden. And they will have to.
I think you have to add 7 pts to Trump in any poll to adjust for the Dem vs Rep sampling and the shy Trump voter and Trump supporting blue collar Dems (called Reagan Dems in the old days).
Other than the never-Trump voter, how could anyone support a 77 year old feeble, mentally declining, guy who doesn’t campaign who is dodging a classic corruption scandal? My eyes tell me something else than these polls do.
The explanation of the methodology for this poll is remarkable for what is missing. The only clue about how they identified a representative sample, was the numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. But, if for example, all of the Republicans were suburban or urban dwellers then they do not have a representative sample and the poll will not be right.
Most polls these days have this defect, so we have to assume that this one is no exception. The only exceptions that I know are those of Richard Baris at People’s Pundit and Trafalger.
The other flaw is that this is a nationwide poll that measures the popular vote. This poll is about the Beauty Contest which does not count. The contests in the states are the ones that count. Trump will lose the popular vote, but he will likely win in the Electoral College.
A third of the electorate, has already voted. That sucks in light of the Biden revelations.
Also, it doesn’t make me feel good when people say this looks like 2016. In 2016 the margins for Trump in some of the battleground states were easily within the potential margin of fraud we will face in 2020. He needs to win more bigly!
I think we are looking at a dead heat in the popular vote, and an electoral college solid victory with Trump adding three states or so to his 2016 electoral college numbers.
Great discussion of early voting and why this means an easy electoral college victory for the President:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
Joe Biden could not be reached for comment. Lid on. Like margarine.
Trump lost the popular vote last time by 2%, he is running 8% better this time. I believe he holds that margin. If it applies equally to all states he should hold what he had last time and add VA, NH, MN, ME, and CO. NM becomes a tossup. I would add OR as a tossup as well simply because I have to believe that people outside of Portland are sickened by what has been happening. I am worried about PA, if the rats are going to go all in on vote fraud anywhere that will be the place.
As far as the public polls go this is all scripted. They are showing the race tightening because the debate is on Thursday and they have to be able to show positive results for Biden. Expect the overnight and weekend polls to show Biden opening up a lead. Furthermore the Thursday, Friday before the election (29th and 30th) the polls will begin to tighten back up so the pollsters can maintain some credibility. They have played this exact game in previous elections and it is as predictable as the sunrise.
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