Posted on 10/19/2020 5:34:52 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
43.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
42.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 47.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/19/20: REPs - 757,694, DEMs - 1,227,883, lead of 470,189 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/18/20: REPs - 753,711, DEMs - 1,221,809, lead of 468,098 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/17/20: REPs - 726,797, DEMs - 1,185,892, lead of 459,095 for DEMs, 49.1% to 30.1%
10/16/20: REPs - 681,111, DEMs - 1,124,439, lead of 443,328 for DEMs, 49.4% to 29.9%
10/15/20: REPs - 623,395, DEMs - 1,043,514, lead of 420,119 for DEMs, 49.9% to 29.8%
10/14/20: REPs - 564,361, DEMs - 967,036, lead of 402,675 for DEMs, 50.4% to 29.4%
10/13/20: REPs - 519,876, DEMs - 904,217, lead of 384,341 for DEMs, 50.7% to 29.2%
10/12/20: REPs - 487,754, DEMs - 850,328, lead of 362,574 for DEMs, 50.9% to 29.2%
As of right now, D increased VBM lead by only 3k today
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In the morning count, Rs were up very slightly in VBM today. OK, so now I get it:
1) Republicans vote at the polls when they get off work;
2) Democrat elections boards start counting after noon when they wake up and finally make it into work to count ballots.
Rs up by 5k IPEV.
So they would be 120k short.
My home county of Duval is disappointing, in part because of me (I’ll get around to it this week!).
But in the greater Jacksonville area (Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Clay, and Flagler):
Republicans: 15,877
Democrats: 14,356
That total excludes Miami-Dade and a few smaller, Republican counties. Do you think a lead will hold when you net the bad and the good?
You can approximate Miami-Dade with this formula: Take Broward County’s total, add 10% to that.
So D’s probably have a slight IPEV lead but not a big deal.
I think a good Miami-Dade approximation is - take Broward and add 10%.
Here’s where I’m tracking 2020 vs 2018 vs 2016
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
I’ll add Miami-Dade when those numbers are posted.
By my calculations, Republicans have 4,264,671 registered voters who have not yet voted. But Democrats have only 3,931,515 left. That’s 333,156 more available for Republicans.
Higher turnout but more of that turnout being supervoters is a bad combo waiting to blow up in the Dems face.
Kind of like having a pitcher batting cleanup in a baseball game?
“In-person early voting in Miami-Dade today has consistently had the longest wait times (45 minutes) in three locations that happen to be the most GOP/Cuban heavy:
1) John F. Kennedy Library in Hialeah
2) Miami Lakes Community Center
3) Westchester Regional Library”
I got my script automated. Currently DEM 124449 / REP 129590. Does not include Miami-Dade (which using my 110% Broward rule is about 17000 Dem/6600 Rep) or Saratosa (red county). So I estimate 141449 D - 136190 R. Not too bad for Big Blue Day 1.
Excellent! Methos8 of 2020.
Nice analogy.
One other thing you’ll notice. Most R counties stop early voting at 5 or 6 pm. All the D counties go until 7 pm. That too is more than a little irritating but it’s a county to county decision I believe.
Who said this?
Please remind me. In 2016, did Republicans start making a comeback during IPEV and finish the comeback on election day? Or was the comeback completely on election day?
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