Posted on 10/19/2020 5:34:52 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
43.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
42.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 47.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/19/20: REPs - 757,694, DEMs - 1,227,883, lead of 470,189 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/18/20: REPs - 753,711, DEMs - 1,221,809, lead of 468,098 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2%
10/17/20: REPs - 726,797, DEMs - 1,185,892, lead of 459,095 for DEMs, 49.1% to 30.1%
10/16/20: REPs - 681,111, DEMs - 1,124,439, lead of 443,328 for DEMs, 49.4% to 29.9%
10/15/20: REPs - 623,395, DEMs - 1,043,514, lead of 420,119 for DEMs, 49.9% to 29.8%
10/14/20: REPs - 564,361, DEMs - 967,036, lead of 402,675 for DEMs, 50.4% to 29.4%
10/13/20: REPs - 519,876, DEMs - 904,217, lead of 384,341 for DEMs, 50.7% to 29.2%
10/12/20: REPs - 487,754, DEMs - 850,328, lead of 362,574 for DEMs, 50.9% to 29.2%
I am going to see tonight if I can aggregate them all and push them out on my website every hour so you can have a collective view. No promises.
sounds good
I think turnout today will be closer to 450k across the state.
In Duval it is 13,601 as of 12:30 p.m. Duval voters were about 4.6% of all Florida voters in 2016.
So if Duval slows down but still gets to 20k today, I think something in mid 400k state-wide is likely.
Possible. With 450k * 3 days, about 1.2-1.3m. Half VBM by Wednesday.
I did add up all the counties (except Miami/Sarasota) at 11:30ET. Total was 2,645,224 (+135,931 for today so far).
135,931 was mail + IPEV.
FYI, Republicans have improved on the EV numbers in all counties since you posted this morning, most noticeably in Lee, Collier and Brevard. Rs have closed the % gap a little in Duval, which seems to be the Dems best county in the state.
No I mean if we finish EV just down 5??
Wow.
20 locations.
Republicans lead in just 4 so far.
But another 4 locations are close and Republican could overtake Dems by the end of the day.
Duval had fewer VBM voters this year compared to other big counties.
6.5m voted early in 2016. This year at least 7.5m?
5 points would be around 350k?
Yea we win that on ED.
Collier is crushing it, around 1800/800 R to D ratio. And this is probably the Democrats’ best EV day we will see.
Question: If a Floridian brings a VBM ballot to the polls and votes, are they considered a VBM voter or an in-person voter?
FOUND THE LIVE DATA SOURCE FOR ALL COUNTIES. I should be able to automate an hourly data push over all counties tonight for everyone’s obsessive data mining pleasure.
Duval EV is currently
D 8,339
R 4,865
We need to get in gear to turn this around.
“Question: If a Floridian brings a VBM ballot to the polls and votes, are they considered a VBM voter or an in-person voter?”
Brings VBM ballot to poll and drops off = that sounds like VBM
If has VBM ballot canceled and then votes at poll = that sounds like IPEV.
From the Florida Elections statistics website:
Registered:
Requested Mail-In Ballots:
Returned Mail-In Ballots
Not Yet Voted Mail-In Ballots:
I'm not sure what these numbers suggest, but I needed to write them down.
-PJ
As of 9:15 this morning, Dems were outpacing Republicans 2.5 to 1. Now that ratio is 1.75 to 1. So, moving in the right direction.
I like that math.
I believe you burn your VBM and are considered an in-person voter. Not 100% sure though.
TODAY
Impressive. Bow down to you. Beats what I’m doing.
Yep those look correct.
Keep in mind 2016. 81% of registered Republicans voted. 74% of registered Democrats voted.
The gap meant more Rs voted than Ds even though Ds had a 300k voter reg lead.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.