Posted on 10/17/2020 8:49:24 AM PDT by mkleesma
Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election defied long odds and the widespread assumption that Hillary Clinton had the contest in the bag. That experience led many to suspect that — no matter how big Joe Biden's lead is this time — it's inevitable that Trump will prove the polls wrong again.
That's a possibility, of course. But a lot has changed since 2016.
The CBC's Presidential Poll Tracker gave Clinton a 3.4-point lead in national polls over Trump on election day. She was projected to win North Carolina and Florida by narrow margins, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin looking safer for the Democratic nominee.
Instead, Trump won all of these states and secured more than the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. He won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point, but these states proved decisive.
With forecasters estimating Clinton's odds of victory at anywhere from 71 per cent to 99 per cent, the result came as a shock. The assumption that the polls were wrong — massively wrong — has become part of the lore of the 2016 election.
Actually, the polls weren't far off the final result at all. Clinton did win the popular vote, besting Trump by 2.1 points. So the total error in national polls was quite small — in line with, and even little better than, past performances in national U.S. polling since 1972.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbc.ca ...
If the National Popular Vote doesn’t win the Election, why poll for it?
They got it wrong last time by way oversampling Dems. And so they’re fixing it this year by...massively oversampling Dems.
I saw a poll last week whose internals had a +20 Dem sampling. No way that is an accurate representation of the population anywhere outside of CA and NY.
If I owned a polling firm, I wouldn’t do national polls.
Thought everyone could use a good laugh this morning.
Thanks, but the real laughs will begin on Nov. 4th when the landslide is bigger than expected.......oh how I hate the left........
Thought everyone could use a good laugh this morning.
Thanks, but the real laughs will begin on Nov. 4th when the landslide is bigger than expected.......oh how I hate the left........
SeeBS “News”
the formula doesn’t work anymore because nobody has land lines anymore, it is much harder to pick out people in certain areas. I have a cell phone with a Newark Number but I live 50 miles from it in a rural area. I never answer unknown or non saved numbers. Many people do this
They say they do it online now but that is even harder since IP address location can easily be spoofed or just plain wrong. My IP address says I am from Atco NJ or Lakewood, but I am far from those places.
This is why polling is pretty much garbage right now.
On election day the NYT predicted that Clinton had a 96 percent chance of being president Trump only 2 percent.
After the election, the NYT had an editorial apologizing for getting the election coverage so wrong. They would take some time for quiet reflection to see what they mmissed.
Within a week their “quiet self-reflection” concluded that where they went wrong is that they hadn’t attacked Trump enough in 2015-2016, the rest is history.
They didn’t get it wrong. THE Russians stole it...oh, are we not running with thT anymore? Tough to keep up
They’re getting it right this time by oversampling urban NeverTrump Republicans.
It’s a Canadian publication. Thanks for participating, Canada. Now, there’s the door. Go home and get ready for your snow season.
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About the popular vote, nothing will convince me that fraud in blue states didn't account for that.
The reason the polls were wrong was because the evil Russkies poisoned the bodily fluids of the pollsters.
Reliable sources have told Commie Brainwashing System that Putin congratulated his spies on their 2016 victory and ordered them to do it again this year!:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
;-)
Yes Sir, the CBC: a festering dunghill of horse$hit and old Arts Center tickets.
“In Texas, Trump is ahead by only 0.9 points. In 2016, Clinton was behind in Texas by nearly 12 points.”
This part is a real howler. IIRC, back in September of 2016, the Media Party talked of Hillary even winning Texas. So now they say Trump had this 12 point lead in that state. How this current 0.9 number could ever be accurate when you get out of the urban areas of Austin, DFW, and Houston is beyond me.
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