COVID-19 Update - 10/16/2020

My own workup | 10/16/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 212

As of 10/15/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Global New Case Declarations Set New Single-day High

Globally, there were 429,035 New Cases of COVID-19 Declared yesterday.

I don't know all the ins and outs on these, but one thing is for certain.
These cases are not 100% made of up of dire COVID-19 people that will evidence
servere reactions and die in this group of 429,035 people. Some folks may
not evidence any symptoms at all. Others will evidence anything from a few
symptoms to some fairly serious ones. Then a very small percentage of them will
go on to develop a full blown problemtic case and die.

The good news is that this number is not worth getting worried about. It is
of note and interesting.

The vast majority of these New Cases have been found on foriegn soil. Some
folks may think these numbers are inflated to hurt Trump, but I fail to see
how more cases in Burma affect Trump's chances at re-election. I tend to
doubt all this can be attributed to an effort to 'get Trump'.

This is a significant number of discovered Covid-19 Cases.

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities fell off by 96 cases from the previous day, to come in at 874
yesterday. That was an 8.39% increase from the same day the week before.

New Cases rose by by 6,482 from the day before, to come in at 66,272
yesterday. That was a 15.18% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities rose by 16 cases from the previous day, to come in at 6,059
yesterday. That was a 5.12% decrease from the same day last week.

New Cases rose by 45,087 cases from the day before, to come in at 429,035
yesterday. This was a 18.94% increase from the same day the week before.
It was a new singly-day record for Global New Cases. The old record was set
the week before on the same day of the week.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 6,482 cases yesterday.

This was our highest daily New Case declaration since 07/31/20, which was
about six weeks into the Second Wave, as I categorize it. At the present
time our rising numbers appear to be the start of a third wave.

While Testing is robust in the United States, it isn't at the highest
level we have seen.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It fell slightly yesterday.

It's significant enough now to take note of it daily.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose up moderately. This has become the norm in recent
days.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This area is looking better day by day.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The Active Case area is a very indicative of what is going on in any
location on this timeline. We can see how things have flattened twice here.
I don't particularly care for what happened last time, and I'm hoping it
won't happen again.

I think you can see the reason for my saying it looks like we may be seeing
evidence of the early days of a third wave. Hopefully things will cool off
and we'll drop instead. I can only address what it looks like at this moment.

The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.

In the last few days before yesterday, Active Cases had risen a little. I'm
concerned about a third wave right how. Globally the cases are hot, and our
numbers are up a little also. Right now our average daily cases are higher
than they have been in seven seeks. I'm not sure how far beyond that it goes back.

Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me. Now I'm seeing troubling signs.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing did rise in the United States yesterday, but we can look back at
other days where the testing was in this range, and how the New Case
numbers looked smaller than they do now.

This is partially attributable to a rise in the Positive Testing Percentages.
Yesterday's single day was the highest it has been since the 7th.

The chart has moved almost imperceptively upward at this time.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line had flattened out, but now we're seeing an increase.
If this weren't a ten day averaging line, we might see more of an
increase in it's trajectory.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Texas took both top spots yesterday.

Texas and Florida took the top positions yesterday.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declarations rose a large amount yesterday. It was a new daily
New Case Declaration record.

The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose in accordance with the large number of New Cases
declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up by about 457.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The important number here rose up yesterday to a new record. Looking up
the column, you can see the old record the day before.

Lets face it, this was a mammoth of a New Cases day.

If you've been watching this chart, you know that it had to adjust to a
new range today, to cover yesterday's astronomical numbers.

I don't the United States' figures here.

The blue line depicting New Cases, is trending up steadily.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

There is pressure for these charts to show an up tick. Both are already showing signs of it.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

I had been giving Spain some credit for what looked like a better direction.
Today I have to address what has happened in the last day or so, and how
that hope for Spain has turned to remorse that it didn't sustain my hope
for it.

France is still going up at a rapid rate and the United Kingdom is now on
the elevated rise program. Drat!

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Netherlands is just going ballistic. From 03/20 to 07/31, it rose
over time. In the 2.5 months since then I has more than tripled that
07/31 figure.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

What I like to do, is compare a nation to itself though, and it's not looking
good against its own earlier numbers.

We are also seeing a dynamic building, where the Netherlands numbers are going
so high, they are pushing down the other nation's lines on the chart. If
the top nations were around 100,000, 100,000 would be at the top of the
chart. When one nation goes to 200,000, it forces the 100,000 nation down
halfway in the chart. I suppose that's a good thing though isn't it.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States took the two top spots here yesterday.

We haven't done that in some time as I recall.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line seem to be flattening more the other day, but
as I generally adivse, the next few days did tell, and the flattening
didn't materialize. Some days a single day can depict a false indication
and I believe that's what happened here.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We wound up at 77.650% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. We slipped
down a bit. As the new wave of cases grow, this number won't fare well.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up normally for this period of the week, and in line
with the massive number of New Cases.

Serious/Critical cases rose about 447 cases. That's a large amount.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our Fatalities fell off, and the Global regions rose by small numbers.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

This 874 figure was a nice relief. We may have another week here where
we will remain below 1,000 Fatalities on each day. Nice.

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. This was the first time we've
gone up over the 0.8000% mark.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

That 429,011 single day New Case declarations figure is pretty amazing.
Higher numbers translate out to more deaths along the way. I say that
because that's what happened furing the second wave This one could be
different. The hope is that at some point these cases will dwindle,
not continue to show strength.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We're been back in 20th again.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 16.

Data from the PA Department Health, figures as of midnight October 15-16.

http://www.health.pa.gov

LTC deaths = 5603 (increase of 18)
Total deaths = 8457 (increase of 25)

Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 66.3%

After allegedly zero LTC deaths yesterday these numbers seem more reliable, albeit a “correction”.

[Wuli]

Higher deaths this report - end of week and the election is looming; have to make it look as bad as possible. If Biden wins, case numbers will start coming down and they will say it is the success of the lockdowns. If Trump wins case numbers will continue to rise and of course they won’t acknowledge any of the protests and riots following his election for that.

And deaths, the all important data - continuing to hover just under or just over 1,000 a day. And how many from the low hanging fruit of the elderly & others with comorbidities? Like most. And the general population? Still doing very well.

[DoughtyOne]

Higher deaths this report - end of week and the election is looming; have to make it look
as bad as possible.

Coming off the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday lower reporting days, yes,
we are higher. Comparing this Thursday to the one last week though, we
are 8.39% lower. I know we can be very suspicious of government agencies
and the MSM, but I do think we need to be careful about the ease of which
we totally ignore the numbers in front of us.

If Biden wins, case numbers will start coming down and they will say it is the success of
the lockdowns. If Trump wins case numbers will continue to rise and of course they won’t
acknowledge any of the protests and riots following his election for that.

Some folks think this third wave is attributable to the colder weather. That
may be a difficult thing for either candidate to deal with post election.

I don't know what to think of the terrorist activity absence of spreader
dynamics.

These people do come from outside the area, and when they return home
they may come down with COVID-19 and not report what activity they
had been participating in, and where.

And deaths, the all important data - continuing to hover just under or just over 1,000 a
day. And how many from the low hanging fruit of the elderly & others with comorbidities?
Like most. And the general population? Still doing very well.

The one area where there may be the biggest room for improvement is
probably the elderly segment. I'm sure they make up the largest grouping
of those lost to the seasonal flu also. It is what it is.