Exclusive poll: Trump and Biden deadlocked in Florida

The Hill ^ | 10 16 2020 | Max Greenwood

[yesthatjallen]

President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied in Florida with just 18 days to go before Election Day, according to a new Hill/Harris poll released on Friday.

The poll shows both Biden and Trump garnering 48 percent of support among likely voters in the Sunshine State, while another 4 percent are unsure of how they will vote.

Trump wins his strongest support from white voters, 59 percent of whom say they plan to cast their ballot for the president. But Biden has strong support among Black voters and Hispanics, who together accounted for about a third of Florida’s electorate in 2016.

Eighty-two percent of Black voters say they support Biden, while 13 percent are backing Trump, according to the poll. Among Hispanic voters in the state, 57 percent say they will vote for Biden compared to 39 percent who plan to support Trump.

Hillary Clinton carried 62 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida four years ago to Trump’s 35 percent. The Hill/Harris poll, however, suggests that Trump has marginally improved his standing among those voters.

But Biden also appears to be outperforming Clinton’s support among voters 65 and older, a key voting bloc in Florida that has long tilted toward Republicans and that Trump sees as critical to his success in the Sunshine State. Among those voters, 51 percent say they are backing Trump for reelection, while 46 percent are supporting Biden.

The poll also shows that few voters are still willing to change their mind about which candidate they plan to support. Eighty-eight percent of respondents said they are committed to their choice compared to 12 percent who indicated that their preference could still change.

SNIP

[eekitsagreek]

The problem is with the Karens.

[MrChips]

. . . except for the very large Cuban community.

[Jess Kitting]

How much do you believe Trump is really up in Florida?

I really believe his is ahead in Florida, a lot.

[Jess Kitting]

Ooops: I really believe he is ahead in Florida, a lot.

[VanDeKoik]

4 years ago you had know it all dopes on FR that would tell you that him going there was a “fools errand”.

[Tobias Grimsley]

via LS, Tralgafar and Baris are saying that Florida is beyond Biden’s reach at this point. Given how the R’s have narrowed the voter registration gap by cutting it down from over 300k to less than 150k since 2016, and that Trump won Florida in 2016 by about 120k votes, I tend to think this is true and based on real numbers.

The same thing with increased R voter registration has happened since 2016 in North Carolina and Pennsylvania as well. That should turn into equivalent Trump votes. So, if the R registration numbers are indicative of voters who will vote for Trump then these 3 states should be his. If that’s the case then Trump will win.

[Mouton]

Even they cannot dismiss the Hunter stuff.

[John S Mosby]

Double or triple that. See: DeSantis vs. Guillam (the very former mayor of Tallahassee- complete with post anal sex photos in a condo in miami with... detritus and drugs after a party with a rent-boy muscle man—a white toot).

There is much very missed in polling like this.

[taxcontrol]

And now the final two weeks of CYA as pollsters move away from their push polls and attempt to show just enough of the real polls to maintain some semblance of credibility.

[riri]

Anecdotal but the one Trump sign in my neighborhood is a hispanic family down the street.

And it's not a sign. It's a giant banner on the front of his house.

[caww]

Why are you posting a Hill/Harris poll? Obviously supporting Biden.

[Mr. K]

Despite what the media say, I don’t think he has lost many votes since last time, if any. And I firmly believe there are a whole lot of NEW voters for him that switched to him.

In contrast, I can’t imagine any hilLIARy voters being overly excited to go vote for Biden. His rallies are much much worse than hers. She had several hundred show up- he has several dozen.

[cohutta]

I wonder how many shy black and Hispanic voters were included in this poll?

[nathanbedford]

Somewhere down thread appears an audio interview of the owner of Trafalgar which is as reassuring as it is interesting. He sees the race coming out positive somewhere in the 270s for Trump. He gets there by assuming Arizona and Florida. He dismisses doubts about Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio. To these core states he is positive about Michigan. That would put Trump over the top. He is less positive, but nevertheless positive, about Pennsylvania.

I believe this calculation has been made before the Hunter Biden emails. My question about those emails asks if there is enough time for the impact of Joe Biden selling his office to China, Ukraine, and Iraq to penetrate that section of the electorate that just doesn't pay attention. To put this positively from the other perspective, I think Biden's forward momentum everywhere has been stopped dead.

The rest is up to Trump.

This very conservative analysis does not believe the bulk of the conventional polls which show Trump behind, sometimes closing sometimes not. It does not disbelieve them, it merely puts these polls on hold because of collateral factors: the history from 2016, Republican registration, Republican rallies and boat parades, the preposterous extravagance of claiming, for example, Biden is 12 points ahead.

It assumes the worst at least to the degree that the election is close because to assume otherwise is folly.

[Deplorable American1776]

If you believe Biden is up in Florida, I have a bridge at the mouth of Tampa Bay to sell you...😀

[LS]

Baris now has Trump +3 in FL. Says no way he loses FL.

Says FL HISPANICS may vote as a MAJORITY for Trump, which would be a stunner.

[V_TWIN]

We have one tomorrow in Jacksonville

[JimRed]

Which means Trump +5.

[faucetman]

Trump wins Florida, PERIOD!

Trump LANDSLIDE! The left/media will be Sooooo surprised when Trump CRUSHES Hiden-Biden and Comma’la.

[pabianice]

Trump by 5% you stupid LibTards.