Posted on 10/16/2020 7:33:56 AM PDT by SJackson
China appears to be on the brink.
The communist regime is threatening our ally, Taiwan -- one of several Asian countries seeking closer ties with the United States while China’s domestic turmoil grows.
In a recent column in China's state-sponsored Global Times, editor-in-chief Hu Xijin warned, "As the secessionist forces' arrogance continues to swell, the historical turning point is getting closer."
"The only way forward is for the mainland to fully prepare itself for war and to give Taiwan secessionist forces a decisive punishment at any time," he wrote.
Taiwan's opposition party has been seeking closer cooperation with the United States. But, Hu wrote: "The more trouble Taiwan creates, the sooner the mainland will decide to teach Taiwan independence forces a hard lesson."
China has been angered by the ongoing tour of Asia by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is seeking support for U.S. efforts to contain China. Recently, the Taiwanese Kuomintang Party, or KMT, renewed its effort for the government to reestablish diplomatic ties with the U.S.
The Chinese are short on food, and face considerable flooding. If one or another dam overflows, major catastrophe could ensue.
Even without such a huge disaster, China faces a grim future. Chin Jin, one of the leaders of the opposition to the ruling Communist Party reminds his followers of the country’s unpleasant past:
The future of China has three prospects:
Prospect 1: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will insist on continuing its rule, despite the inevitability of decline.
Prospect 2: The CCP sees increasing difficulties with ruling China due to intra-party tussles, and political purges within the ruling clique, that may force it to accept various internal and external pressures to make structural change. This would also threaten the CCP regime. Chinese leader Xi Jinping however has already explicitly ruled out any meaningful political reform.
Prospect 3: The blundering CCP collapses overnight like the former Soviet Union, and the ethnic minority regions and Taiwan take advantage of the situation to exit Greater China. Former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s proposed “Seven-Block Theory” (1999) comes to fruition dividing the country into seven autonomous regions: Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, South China, North China, and Northeast China.
I believe this is the most likely.
Chin Jin thinks the past is a reliable guide to the future, and hence that our current and future actions should be based on a correct evaluation of our past. He’s an activist, and he thinks that Chinese history provides a reliable guide to its future. He believes that the current model for China—a huge state held together by a rigid ideology and a tough-minded bureaucracy—can not only last for a long time, but endure throughout a period of severe internal and external challenge.
President Trump does not believe that. He believes that American history shows that Americans are able to change course very quickly, and that the Chinese are locked into failed past models. Is he right?
We don’t know. Yet.
Be a damn shame if those Chinese Generals lost their mansions and luxury cars because of the communists.
I’m old enough to remember when the Three Gorges Dam was going to collapse and wipe out the ChiCom regime.
Wishful reporting.My attitude is just wait. What if a billion Chicoms are freew-what will they do with all them? Too many people.It’s 1.5 billion.
President Trump...believes that American history shows that Americans are able to change course very quickly, and that the Chinese are locked into failed past models. Is he right?
*************
Years ago he may have been right but not so sure about today’s America.
Wasn’t that just last month? What is their cataclysm this month?
Prospect 3: The blundering CCP collapses overnight like the former Soviet Union
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That prospect would certainly set off another major civil war in China with 10s of million dying. One of the previous ones had 40 million dead.
Li in China and Netanyahu in Israel share something in common. Li does not want to leave office with Taiwan remaining free. He wants to be remembered as the leader who unified China politically and culturally. He has already seized Hong Kong, subgugated the Uighers and the Catholic Church and desperated wants Taiwan reunifed with China before he leaves office or dies. Similarly Netanyahu has done great things in his career and tenure as Prime Minister. Yet Netanyahu, a man who’s life has beebn dictated by the Holocaust, will consider himself a failure if the Iranian existential threat to Israel and the Jewish people was not eliminated while he was the secular leader of Israel and the Jewish people. Throughout history wars are often started by long serving leaders concerned about the last item of business on their agenda.
Prospect 4: Start a major war, galvanizing the people to come to the regime’s aid while consolidating power further.
Li in China
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You mean Xi?
From all I’ve read and seen, China will “go to the mat” to keep its CCP in place. They can certainly be a force to reckon with. Does anybody remember the Korean war? That did not turn out so well, like all wars we jumped into AFTER a very successful WWII.
A psychotic, meglomaniacal, despot, thug never elected to anything vs. A duly elected head of a democratic free state.
You’re a dummy. Dummy.
We give them a copy of our Constitution and tell them to create United States of China, out of the 7 regions.
I believe this is the most likely.”
First, historical comparisons are not always apt. China is a communist dictatorship, but economic reform has been under way for forty years and Chinese generally have a much better standard of living now. There is discontent to be sure, but the standard Chinese use for comparison may be their own chaotic 50s and 60s.
Second, even if discontent exists, the CCP has surveillance technology that Stalin could only dream of.
Third, Mr. Ledeen’s record as a forecaster is not great. How long has he been predicting the imminent fall of the ayatollahs?
Hey don’t argue with me, argue with history. Politicians who reach the top of the heap, regardless of their personalities , decency or lack there of, usually make concerted efforts to complete their agenda and solidify their legacies before they leave office.
How many Americans alive remember these eras? H3ll, there are a significant number who don't even remember the hot job market and booming economy we had a mere 10 months ago.
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