Posted on 10/15/2020 8:08:27 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 211
As of 10/14/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information4
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities rose by 108 cases from the previous day, to come in at 870
yesterday. That was a 2.32% increase from the same day the week before.
New Cases rose by by 7,326 from the day before, to come in at 59,790
yesterday. That was a 13.88% increase from the same day the week before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities rose by 633 cases from the previous day, to come in at 6,043
yesterday. That was a 3.12% increase from the same day last week.
New Cases rose by 63,289 cases from the day before, to come in at 383,948
yesterday. This was a 8.50% increase from the same day the week before.
With 383,948 New Case Declarations yesterday, we saw the largest single day
numbers to date. The last record took place last Thursday when the number
hit 360,723.
Territories Report Irregularties Today
The Territories Data File I generally download from WorldoMeters did not
present the full body of data it has for months on end. Hopefully it will
return to normal tomorrow.
Global Recoveries and Resolved Cases Hit New Milestone
Global Recoveries blew past the 29 million mark yesterday. At the same time
Resolved Cases surpassed 30 million.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations rose by 7,326 cases yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It it rose a bit yesterday. Glad to see that. It had been dropping
recently.
It's significant enough now to take note of it daily.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases rose up moderately. This has become the norm in recent
days, but several days ago they did fall.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
This area is looking better day by day.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
The Active Case area is a very indicative of what is going on in any
location on this timeline. We can see how things have flattened twice here.
I don't particularly care for what happened last time, and I'm hoping it
won't happen again.
The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.
In the last few days before yesterday, Active Cases had risen a little. I'm
concerned about a third wave right how. Globally the cases are hot, and our
numbers are up a little also. Right now our average daily cases are higher
than they have been in seven seeks. I'm not sure how far beyond that it goes back.
Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me. Now I'm seeing troubling signs.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing rose up just about 17,600 tests yesterday. The 14-day average
rose above 5.00% for the first time since 09/28. The two other indicators
rose also.
The chart has moved almost imperceptively upward at this time.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to watch.
The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.
The Active Case line has flattened out, with a small bias upward.
If this weren't a ten day averaging line, we might see more of an
increase in it's trajectory.
I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.
Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.
You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Texas took both top spots yesterday.
Texas New Case numbers are high. Looking back this territory isn't
unusual for them.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case Declarations rose a large amount yesterday. It was a new daily
New Case Declaration record.
The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose in accordance with the large number of New Cases
declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up by about 450.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
The important number here rose up yesterday to a new record. Looking up
the column, you can see the old record up about four days.
Yesterday the figures rose up substantially, for a new record. We're
flirtine with 60k cases per day also.
The blue line depicting New Cases, is trending up steadily.
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
There is pressure for these charts to show an up tick. Both are already showing signs of it.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
We're seeing early signs of what I hope will be major improvement for Spain
here. So far it hasn't panned out to be the true correction I had hoped
for Spain.
France is still going up at a rapid rate and the United Kingdom is now on
the elevated rise program. Drat!
To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.
The Netherlands is just going ballistic. From 03/20 to 07/31, it rose
over time. In the 2.5 months since then I has more than tripled that
07/31 figure.
We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.
What I like to do, is compare a nation to itself though, and it's not looking
good against its own earlier numbers.
We are also seeing a dynamic building, where the Netherlands numbers are going
so high, they are pushing down the other nation's lines on the chart. If
the top nations were around 100,000, 100,000 would be at the top of the
chart. When one nation goes to 200,000, it forces the 100,000 nation down
halfway in the chart. I suppose that's a good thing though isn't it.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
India and the United States lead out here today. The U. S. is nearing
the 1,000 marker I hope to stay below from here on out.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Case chart line seem to be flattening more the other day, but
as I generally adivse, the next few days did tell, and the flattening
didn't materialize. Some days a single day can depict a false indication
and I believe that's what happened here.
In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We wound up at 77.837% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. We slipped
down a bit.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose up normally for this period of the week.
Serious/Critical cases rose about 450 cases. That's a large amount.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Our Fatalities rose by 108, and the Global regions rose also.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
This 970 Fatalities comes closer to the 1,000 figure, I'd like us remain
below from here on out.
Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This area hasn't looked too good lately. This was the first time we've
gone up over the 0.8000% mark.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.
Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
That 383,948 single day New Case declarations figure is pretty amazing.
It was just Wednesday too.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.
Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.
We're been back in 20th again.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 15.
Data from PA Department of Health as of midnight October 14-15.
LTC deaths = 5585 (zero increase, yeah, right)
Total deaths = 8432 (increase of 21)
Cumulative LTC deaths as a percentage of total = 66.2%
And, voila, with the swing of the daily LTC death pendulum to the unbelievable zero the percentage dips slightly under 2/3.
Prediction: Tomorrow’s LTC death number will be equal to or greater than the number of total deaths. This is Pennsylvania, where in the new (capacity limitation) math 2000 = 2606.
Good friends mother is in a nursing home that 3/4’s of the patients are testing positive for covid. Her mother is now one of those even with all the restrictions they set, it spread just the same.
Hopefully with better treatments, nearly all of them will survive.
All the kings horses and the kings men
Couldn’t bottle up COVID again.
Sorry for your friend’s mother and others literally trapped in this situation; but more and more I am convinced that there is very little that can actually be done to prevent exposure of something which is airborne, meaning in the air and everywhere.
Lockdowns and masks just delayed the inevitable.
Just found out last night....but I recall they couldn’t see her at all during lockdown.....then they eased up about a month ago... but for just a half hour visit, outside in a gazebo that had a plastic division wall, wear masks and 6 feet away from each other. And only one visitor at a time...... She said it was very difficult because it was hard to hear each other speak.
Yet still it broke out and so many positive now.
I think she said 300 units in the building....
I don’t believe this virus can be contained either...although the lockdown likely did prevent the hospitals being overrun..because people basically stayed home.....but the nation can’t be locked down again regardless if it gets hot or not.
A very interesting series of graphs contrasting the EU and the USA here:
https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-two-different-pandemics-eu-vs-us-10-15-2020
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