Posted on 10/12/2020 6:16:53 AM PDT by FR33DOM4ME
This one was taken after the debate and the COVID diagnosis - unlike the prior IBD/TIPP poll. This poll shows the same movement as the other polls taken after those events. Let’s hope the effect of those events fades now that they are over.
Agreed. I was expecting/hoping to see better numbers when this poll came out this morning. This poll was pretty close to accurate in 2016.
He’s personally hiding in body while the campaign ads present him as a strong, competent leader with a bold vision and ideas that will restore stability to the country vs. the chaos caused by Trump. It’s nonsense, yes, but that’s the message many, if not most, Americans are getting without any competing message from the Trump campaign. That has an impact.
You are right about the ads. It’s just not about Biden it’s all about Trump for or against. The exception is the seniors, they beleive the nice man in the ads is real
So I went back to a 2016 poll for the methodology and here is what they did then No Internet supplemented like as in the poll today>
“Results based on survey of 1107 likely voters conducted from 11/4 - 11/7. Margin of error: +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 361 Democrats/367 Republicans/362 Independents; (Weighted) 361/333/381. Results in table above are based on weighted sample. IBD’s polling partner TechnoMetrica uses “traditional” telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.”
Just a reminder:
I am 58 years old and NEVER been polled.
Hardly know a conservative who has been polled.
These are NATIONAL POLLS.
Just a FEW States will determine the election.
ENTHUSIASM is all on Trumps side.
These Polls mean nothing to what happens on November 3.
All one can do is Vote. Get family and friends to Vote. If things being said are true, it might be the last vote a Conservative can cast that will make a difference.
That paragraph tells us two things:
1. Since this is a 5-day rolling poll, the bad data (i.e. “data we don’t like”) is going to stay in the poll for a few days until it ages out and is replaced by good data (”data we do like”) — or by even worse data. We’ll see in a few data.
2. People who shriek about polling internals being “wrong” because they allegedly “oversample” (as if people understand what that word even means) Democrats, or women, or Californians or whatever should be aware that a poll which is TRYING to be correct — and this one was, but I guess they suddenly aren’t anymore, eh? — uses a model & methodology which they believe accurately reflects the electorate.
If a higher proportion of “younger (brainwashed) voters” are in fact going to vote this time around than before, then their methodology is correct no matter how loud the shrieking gets.
The Beloved Trafalgar Group samples the 45-and-up age group very heavily compared to younger voters. That’s a significant reason (but probably not the only one) why they get results we like so much better. Are they wrong, or are all the others wrong? We’ll see about that too.
The ChiComs have another fake poll being pushed by one of their hired trolls.
So Joe Dementia can just stay in his basement.
His billion plus rat voters can stay home, stay stoned and post ChiCom fake poll results until Thanksgiving.
The ChiComs have another fake poll being pushed by one of their hired trolls.
So Joe Dementia can just stay in his basement.
His billion plus rat voters can stay home, stay stoned and post ChiCom fake poll results until Thanksgiving.
I have yet to see a Trump ad as good as the best Biden ads. (And there seem to be way more Biden ads.) Do not get me wrong. I do not agree with the message of Biden’s ads. But Biden has come out with strong ads of all sorts - positive message, attack ad, scary message, etc. I think these may be more effective than people (including myself) want to admit.
Read the last paragraph Starting at However:
So the poll is supplemented with ONLINE surveys to better capture younger voters.
I guess EVIL hate topples enthusiasm, what a freaking topsy-turvy wacko world we live in now!
Ethusiasm deficit for candidate means election loser.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjoyJiBXgAU35Ra?format=jpg&name=medium
Stop posting this or admit you are helping the media gaslight us. For good sake, Biden just tried to “rally” in Arizona and NOT A SINGLE SUPPORTER SHOWED UP! Get lost with this crap.
Trump ads have been pretty bad for the most part. He needed (needs) a Morning in American Reagan type ad. He has done so many good things, yet the ads don’t even touch on it.
Trump testing positive for coronavirus was the Access Hollywood tape of 2016.
Forget the popular vote its the electoral college that counts.
Thank you for doing that. I had not realized that they were supplementing with internet to capture the Ute vote,
Joe Biden And Kamala Harris Hold Rally in Arizona And NO ONE SHOWS UP – Hardly Any Media Coverage
Conservative US ^ | 10.12.2020 | Alex Hall
Posted on 10/12/2020, 7:03:42 AM by USA Conservative
Former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, made their first campaign trip to Arizona on Thursday, pitching voters on their plans.
But contrasting with the large events President Donald Trump and his surrogates have held in the Valley over the last several months of the pandemic, Biden and Harris stuck to small gatherings
Well, some were small and one event, in particular, had zero attendants
An Arizona FOX 10 reporter was stunned this past week when NO ONE came out to see Joe Biden AND Kamala Harris outside the Heard Museum in Phoenix.
No one was holding signs on the road. No one was outside of their venue to greet them.
The reporter said: There’s really not much to see. It’s kind of boring out here. It’s not your typical presidential campaign event. We don’t see people campaigning outside. We don’t see signs or not much of what’s going on.
Fake news, fake campaign, fake rally, fake supporters, fake voters. They don’t even need to try.
My favorite part is the claim that they were keeping details around their rally “secret”
Perhaps the Biden/Harris campaign decided the voters didn’t deserve to know the event details?
Because they think that the American voters don’t deserve to know their Supreme court-packing.
Yet Biden is up by double digits in the polling. That has to be the most fraudulent polling in history.
What Trump ads? I hardly see them here in NC.
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