That paragraph tells us two things:
1. Since this is a 5-day rolling poll, the bad data (i.e. “data we don’t like”) is going to stay in the poll for a few days until it ages out and is replaced by good data (”data we do like”) — or by even worse data. We’ll see in a few data.
2. People who shriek about polling internals being “wrong” because they allegedly “oversample” (as if people understand what that word even means) Democrats, or women, or Californians or whatever should be aware that a poll which is TRYING to be correct — and this one was, but I guess they suddenly aren’t anymore, eh? — uses a model & methodology which they believe accurately reflects the electorate.
If a higher proportion of “younger (brainwashed) voters” are in fact going to vote this time around than before, then their methodology is correct no matter how loud the shrieking gets.
The Beloved Trafalgar Group samples the 45-and-up age group very heavily compared to younger voters. That’s a significant reason (but probably not the only one) why they get results we like so much better. Are they wrong, or are all the others wrong? We’ll see about that too.
So I went back to a 2016 poll for the methodology and here is what they did then No Internet supplemented like as in the poll today>
“Results based on survey of 1107 likely voters conducted from 11/4 - 11/7. Margin of error: +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 361 Democrats/367 Republicans/362 Independents; (Weighted) 361/333/381. Results in table above are based on weighted sample. IBD’s polling partner TechnoMetrica uses “traditional” telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.”
Lets see where this is mid-week.
Rasmussen is way up. But also remember ,because of the Riots etc, fewer Trump supporters are willing to talk to pollsters than even in 2016.