FYI: New battleground states 2016 vs 2020 polling compare-o-graphs out from the Trump Campaign

Rasmussen/Twitter ^ | 10/11/2020 | Twitter

[grayboots]

Comparing the numbers: 10/10/16 vs. 10/10/20. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Also includes Ohio and North Carolina

[grayboots]

[grayboots]

[Mount Athos]

very good, i want to see this for all battleground states though.

[dontreadthis]

good stuff

[SharpRightTurn]

Nice comparison, gray boots.

[fhayek]

Part of me says that the polling units, after getting it so wrong in 2016 must be adjusting their methodologies to achieve higher accuracy this time around.

But the other part of me says that the people are leftists, so accuracy and truth have no bearing in this whatsoever.

[TexasFreeper2009]

This is true, but there is one big difference, Biden is polling much higher than Hillary was even though his lead is smaller.

[Meatspace]

There is is reason not to think that the polls are as inaccurate today as they were in 2016.

[ConservativeInPA]

Part of me says that the polling units, after getting it so wrong in 2016 must be adjusting their methodologies to achieve higher accuracy this time around.

That part of you is called logic. It doesn't work with leftists. There is no explaining it.

[HarleyD]

I keep telling my wife these polls are bogus. I just wish Fox News would quit saying Trump is behind in the polls and using them as if they mean anything.

[Heff]

Nice work!

[Alberta's Child]

Political consultant Frank Luntz, who has more than his share of detractors here on FR, made his reputation over the years as a pollster. After the 2016 fiasco he came out and publicly stated that polling should be banned. What really set him off wasn't just that the polls were wrong before the election but that the exit polls were also wrong ... which meant people were lying to pollsters even AFTER they had voted.

[Notthereyet]

Merciful Maude.

Please, oh, please, encourage all you know to vote Republican.

We need to AVOID getting lazy.

Sigh.

[GOPJ]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/no-one-in-my-judgment-who-is-outstanding-ed-rendell-grades-biden-vice-presidential-options

...Ed Rendell grades Biden...

from link:

Rendell also cast doubt on Biden’s polling in Pennsylvania.

“In Pennsylvania, the polls generally show Biden with a 9- to 10-point lead, but I don’t believe those polls are correct,” he said. “In 2016, when the polls had Hillary [Clinton] winning Pennsylvania comfortably... (more at link)

[cgbg]

Show this article to your wife:

https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/

Hillary won last time—it is science!

[euram]

The day after the election in 2016, the NYT issued an apology to its readers and said that they would take time to figure out what they had missed, because on election day they said that Clinton had about a 96 percent chance of winning and Trump about 2 percent chance. They had obviously missed something with their polling.

Within just a few days all quiet introspection was over and they decided that what they had not gotten right in 2016 was that they hadn’t attacked Trump enough. They announced that they could not treat Trump like they would a normal president, and they unleashed a 48 month temper tantrum.

The left is totally incapable of quiet introspection and it is the exact same way with all the polling outfits. I’m sure that the DNC, Soros, etc., are propping them up with bundles of cash to help in their psychological warfare campaign. Biden has no actual campaign, just what the media is running for him.

[Gay State Conservative]

Very interesting.But lest we become overconfident we must remember that Rat Party Headquarters is engaged in a fraudulent scheme that's much more clever and much more impactful than their scheme in '16.

This election won't be decided by voters.With a comment once made by Stalin in mind we must acknowledge that it will be decided by Rat Party Secretaries of State and Rat Party judges...state *and* Federal.And as for the judges we know that the large majority of this nation's lawyers...and judges...are filthy Maoist scum.

Just remember ILLary's advice to Plugs...given just a few weeks ago:

"DON'T CONCEDE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES"

[cgbg]

There is _every_ reason to think the polls today are as inaccurate as they were in 2016.

Let us start with a simple question—did any pollster or pundit lose their job for getting it wrong in 2016?

Anyone?

So, why change your behavior if there are no negative consequences for bad behavior.

The polls still over-sample Democrats.

The polls still over-sample blacks and young people who will not turn out for a senile white guy even though they would have turned out for a younger and more articulate Democratic candidate.

Conservative and Republican hatred of pollsters, fear of doxing by intentional or unintentional data leakage by pollsters has gotten _much_ worse in the last four years, so Trump supporters are getting much harder to poll.

Bottom line—I believe the President is a couple of percentage points ahead of 2016 in pretty much all states. I expect him to carry every state he carried in 2016 with the addition of New Hampshire and Minnesota. I also believe the national popular vote will be a virtual tie.

[Liz]

[daler]

Bottom line: it’ll be a turnout election.

BIG advantage Trump.