Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
The GOP has the Senate. The Democrats have the House. I wouldn’t support court packing regardless of which party wanted to do it.
I KNOW we have the senate and not the house. We need the house. These commies get control of the senate to go with the house and Trump wins reelection, he will get no where with anything he wants to do. Nothing!!
We’re in agreement. That’s why I posted this thread. But unfortunately it didn’t really catch fire.
One more ping
Yeah. I know. It seems most may not think we have a chance to get the House back. We need something like 35 seats or so to do that, and I have read, yes from the MSM, that we may even lose the Senate this time. If that were so, even if Trump won, he wouldn’t much accomplished in the next term. We could lose three or four Supreme Court justices in the next four years. Several are VERY, VERY old. In their mid-80s or so. If Trump does win, and if we can keep the Senate, I wish those older conservatives would retire now and allow Trump to fill their positions with younger Conservatives because we know if he does win, and does not get to replace them, then in the next election, probably a DimoMarxist wins the election and he will replace them with devout Marxists. Thomas is in his 80s I know. The others I am not sure of. But, they don’t need to hang on like Ginsberg and die in office and allow a DimoMarxist to replace them. I hope it goes that way. I hate to lose Justice Thomas. I wish he were a lot younger but that time has passed.
I would add WA-08 as a potential R pickup in November.
Sean Trende noted she was in danger according to the Washington State Primary he follows.
Here is some info: “Schrier pulled in just over 43% of the vote in the August Primary (coincidentally, the same percentage former District 8 challenger Dino Rossi accrued in the Primary before losing to Schrier in 2018’s general election). The next highest vote total was for Republican Jesse Jensen at 20%. Jensen is a military veteran and former Army Ranger, having served on four combat tours. He’s endorsed by former Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna, as well as Congressmen Dan Crenshaw (Texas), Mike Gallagher (Wisconsin), and Mike Waltz (Florida).
Combined, Republican candidates totaled 49% of the vote in the Primary, while GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by a 51% to 49% margin.”
Info on Jesse Jensen: https://ballotpedia.org/Jesse_Jensen
Brett Kavanaugh, 55
Elena Kagan, 60
John Roberts, 65
Sonia Sotomayor, 66 Samuel Alito, 70
Clarence Thomas, 72
Stephen Breye, 82
I thought I had read Thomas was older than that. But, I was wrong (wasn’t the first time!!) I must have been remembering Justice Antonin Scalia.) My bad.
Are you kidding?
Need to flip a net of 17 Democrat seats to regain the House.
Good. Maybe we can flip the 35. That would be a nice round, okay unround, figure.
As an aside, a friend works for a NY state agency, Conservative as can be. She was appointed union shop steward, since no one wanted it, a couple of years ago. She alerts other conservatives to volunteer as spots opens. Now 6 out of 30ish shop stewards are good guys.
1/5 instead of the traditional 1.5%. We'll take what we can get! LOL
Military veteran Sean Parnell* of PA-17outraised his incumbent opponent for the second quarter in a row. Impressive!
Not too shabby for a party stagging toward November, supposedly trailing by double digits and the POTUS almost out of cash & losing NC. :-D
I wish I could find a cave to hide in until this is over. I’m really hoping and praying for a republican house and senate.
I hope Sean Parnell whips Lamb like a rented mule. :^)
Don’t be cruel to animals! You sound like a Democrat. LOL
MN-2, definitely in play.
NH-2, Kushner was deemed safe, but is now competitive. Not sure why.
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