Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
Excellent presentation, Coop.
Thanks for the ping and for putting all of this great info together.
I plan on contacting campaigns to see how I can help, from TX....making calls, etc.
Have donated to several of these candidates.
WE NEED TO REMOVE THAT GAVEL FROM QUEEN NANTOINETTE’S COLD HANDS.
Cook Reports lists 91 seats that are competitive. Includes 41 that are currently DEM.
https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Inside Elections has a shorter list of 68
Any seat not on those lists is all but certain not to flip this year.
My wife and I have now given to 41 House and Senate races, in addition to Trump. We used suggestions from here on Free Republic and from Ballotpedia.org.
We heavily encourage everyone to please do what you can. You can even make phone calls from home for the campaigns, which my wife did for the Trump campaign the week before. They gave her a webpage and you make calls over the Internet to peoples’ phones. There are plenty of other things, too.
The best run down of the close races is at Ballotpedia.org in the following links:
US Senate Races:
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020
US House Races:
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2020
Yes? It's listed above.
Wow, that may be my first appearance on Twitter. :-)
I don’t drink alcohol, haven’t for decades. Well, I do have a couple beers on our favorite beach with my son once each year.
BUT, the day Nancy gets the boot, I’ll be found on a beach, watching a sunset while eating fresh homemade apple pie with vanilla bean ice cream and siping my way to the bottom of a bottle of expensive Brandy.
Bump
Coop, thank you for your work.
I live in the PA 17th district. Conor Lamb (D) is Congresswoman now. MANY Lamb commercials, few Parnell also. Seems to be multiples of Lamb (D) to every one Parnell (R). Lamb has very good commercials. Parnell now has good ones. He was playing one focused on his family, which my 78 year old mom liked very much. I found it hokey and amateurish acting.
it is very, very unlikely Trump will win 270 electoral votes and the election.
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race
Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected
If Mr. Cook's presidential assessment is correct, his House ratings will likely be accurate. I think his 2020 POTUS race assessment is manure-like, much like his 2016 POTUS declaration on 10/13/2016:
“Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report. “This race is OVER.”
Thanks to you and your wife for making a difference!
IOW.....Cook is cooked!!!
Thanks.
Wikipedia says all of City of Pittsburgh is in 18th, not 17th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_17th_congressional_district
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_congressional_district
bump for later
FYI.....(overlook the source :)
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/10/house-gop-super-pac-adds-45m-to-fall-advertising-393071
We’ve seen ads, from this House PAC, in our area.
They’ve made a YUGE ad buys....
....House Republicans’ chief super PAC is booking another $45 million in fall advertising — a massive sum that will further define the congressional battleground as the GOP fights national headwinds to narrow Democrats’ majority.
The new buys, which are spread across 40 media markets, bring Congressional Leadership Fund’s total investment for the cycle to nearly $90 million, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. They include broadcast, cable and digital ads, as well as funding for mail programs, and will cover a mix of offensive and defensive targets.
That used to be the case but not anymore.
Take a closer look at your link to the 17th. It says that it contains all parts of Allegheny County that are not in the 18th.
The 17th was gerrymandered to give the Dems an edge in that district.
Sabato had 46 DEM seats that are in play
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_title=sabatos-crystal-ball
If they are showing up on these lists, at least they are in the discussion. It’s been years since a seat flipped without being on these lists.
Yes, we could come up with another 20 Dems to add on.
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