Posted on 10/06/2020 7:45:54 AM PDT by Blogger
Every Republican who has won had Ohio. No true for Democrats where they have won without Ohio (1884, 1892, 1944 and 1960). I think Missouri is closer to picking the victor, but it isn't 100% right for either party.
2016: Tragalgar Ohio Poll 48.5 - 44.1
2016 Ohio Actual: 51.6 - 43.5
So extrapolating, the President could easily give a point back in OH and still womp the mummy.
Also it indicates Trump's MonsterVote™ is alive and well in the Midwest, but it also indicates we will be cutting MI-WI-PA similarly close again.
I hope so!! I hope so...
That is the way I am taking it. He has them in the bag and is trying to hold PA and MI and cut into Biteme territory like MN, NH and NV. If he’s pulling out of OH and IA because they are lost PA is a moot point anyway. I think this is a good sign.
Interesting facts you brought up.
If Potus was losing OH, he and/or surrogates like family members would be staying in OH for the next month!
Robert Barnes [big political bettor] also made an interesting point yesterday on the periscope at @Peoples_Pundit. He said if Biden’s campaign thought OH was winnable, they would have done ‘triumphant’ campaign events there right after the debate, which was held in OH anyway. Instead Biden took off back to PA. OH is lost to them.
“My phone is ringing off the wall with pleas to make sure I’m registered and to get a mail ballot (which I don’t understand frankly).”
I’ve been wondering about that too.
I think the money would be far better spent making sure people know where they are supposed to go for in-person voting. It’s not that clear here in eastern Montgomery county.
For the primaries, the firehouse / town hall where we have voted for fifty years was closed for covid, so we had to vote at a neighboring public high school.
I found out we are back at the firehouse for the general election, but nobody officially informed us of that - I had to research that myself!
My question is - if I didn’t know where I could vote in-person, how many other Pennsylvanians will be ill-informed when the big day comes?
With the Democrat politicians and bureaucrats purposely confusing and scaring everyone away from in-person voting, shouldn’t the local GOP chapters be focusing on keeping people informed about where to vote rather than trying to push the stupid mail in ballot thing?
Yep!
Well-stated. PA was actually the most formidable win of the WI-MI-PA trio.
If Biden can't win PA, he's toast. Trump could give back WI-MI and still win. In this scenario, let's say Maine goes straight blue and NE goes straight red. All other states align with #2016.
Trump still wins 279-259EV, and likely trades off Sen. Collins for Sen. Tuberville, so we still hold the Senate and claw back 10 or so House seats.
There is no "wishful thinking" about Ohio. I don't do "wishful thinking".
Neither Trump nor Biden is contesting Ohio, that means, as Trafalgar's numbers align nearly identically with 2016, that it's a foregone conclusion that Trump will win OH. The core of ad buys are bought months in advance, they don't mean @%^t, and neither do the late buys.
In-person is what matters in the last month, and Hiden Biden is in-person in adjacent states to his home base in DE, that ain't good like Gore losing TN and ALL the TN-adjacent states in 2000 wasn't good.
Concern troll is concerned
Same here in Florida. Non-stop bullsht.
My local GOP office is focus on local races this time and not Trump like 2016. I think they are trying top utilize Trump coat tails to bring in local state reps and county comish types.
A picture of a naked Hillary at the door of the polling place would not deter me from voting.
I am sure they are out there, but I am not seeing them. That indicates a problem for Biden.
If you are in Ohio, even more that indicates Trump is sitting pretty and trying to hold the purple wall and cut into Biteme’s other states, NV, MN, NH and NM.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.