Posted on 10/05/2020 6:15:02 PM PDT by bort
Researchers from the Brennan Center for Justice say their study...found that Milwaukee’s decision to close all but five of its 182 polling places reduced voting among non-Black voters in Milwaukee by 8.5 percentage points, and that COVID-19 may have further reduced turnout by 1.4 percentage points. That would mean the overall reduction in turnout among non-Black voters was 9.9 percentage points.
Black voters experienced more severe effects: Poll closures reduced their turnout by an estimated 10.2 percentage points, while other mechanisms — including fear of contracting COVID-19 — lowered turnout by an additional 5.7 percentage points. Those factors combined to depress Black voter turnout by 15.9 percentage points, the researchers estimated.
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(Excerpt) Read more at milwaukeeindependent.com ...
1) Pollsters have wet dreams about 2008/2012 when black turnout peaked at a little over 61%. That was with OBAMA on the ticket. Prior to 2008, black turnout was typically 48 to 56%. In 2016 it was 56%. So, yes, black turnout can go MUCH lower than 2016.
2) As I've noted before, there is zero enthusiasm for Biden in the black community. And while black women despise Trump, black men--except the ones on MSNBC--are OK with Trump and his macho, brash, in-your-face style. Black guys, moreover, aren't down with cis-genders, etc.
3) Black men HATE illegal immigration with a passion. The working-class black guys I speak with every day are personally affected by illegals, who depress their wages. Trump's message resonates.
4) Black women fear the China Virus more than any group I come in contact with. Blacks are far more likely to have "co-morbidities" like diabetes, COPD, etc. at YOUNGER AGES (50s/60s). The typical white person that dies of China Virus is 85 years old. The typical black person who dies from the virus is 60 years old. Bottom line: Blacks are far more likely to be personally affected by China Virus and, thus, things like voting at a crowded polling place are not insignificant. Thus, the drop-off in Wisconsin black voting in April
5) Anecdotal evidence: In the last month, I am personally familiar with 5 instances where black women will not let anybody in their HOUSE because of China Virus, either for their personal safety or because of an elderly relative in the home. Some whites do this also, but...
6) Whites tend to be more affluent and computer savvy. They have fewer issues requesting absentee ballots. I have rarely ever seen a 55 year old working-class black person using an iPHone. Whites also drive cars more, and don't rely on public transportation, which lead me to....
7) Most older, downscale blacks do NOT drive to the polls. They get picked up in buses and vans in GOTV drives sponsored by the local Democrat Party or their churches. They catch rides with others. Many churches are barely operating now and, besides, 15 elderly black folks are not going to pile in a van with China Virus. In fact, getting volunteers to drive the GOTV vehicles will be a challenge. Transportation challenges alone will cause a drop-off in black turnout.
8) The Democrats and the media (CNN/MSNBC, etc.) are scaring the living crap out of their voters vis-a-vis China Virus. For instance, Jamie Harrison, a black senate candidate in SC, put a plexiglass screen up in his debate against Lindsey Graham. If you are an elderly black couple with health issues and you see a young, healthy black guy hiding behind plexiglass, and you've been told that Joe Biden is up 14 points, will you show up to vote?
9) Also, North Carolina numbers--the most detailed so far, suggest low black turnout. Blacks make up 21% of the electorate, but requested roughly 17% of the mail ballots and are returning their ballots at a lower rate (15.9%) than whites. As noted before, while Democrats are casting far more VBM than Republicans, the Democrat pool of VBM is predominantly old folks, and disproportionately white men in rural counties.
10) Finally, NC VBM requests are 10 times(!) 2016. So is it ENTHUSIASM that's driving record Democrat VBM requests or FEAR of the China Virus? It's FEAR, b/c if it was enthusiasm, ALL demographics would be mailing in ballots instead of pretty much AARP members. Question: If China Virus has spooked the Democrats (and some Rs) into requesting 10X the VBM ballots, is it possible...just maybe...I'll go out on a limb here...that the massive balance of voters who do NOT VBM may contain some folks who decide not to vote because they fear the China Virus? In short, expect a substantial drop-off in black voting, which will impact multiple battleground states. Discuss...
PING
I don’t trust ANYTHING from the Brennan Center!!
But Trump supporting black voters, like any other Trump supporting voters, would be highly motivated.
This is the clarion call for DEMOCRATS to get out the vote. Happens every election.
I don’t trust ANYTHING from the Brennan Center!!
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Actually, while their study found that 5.7% of blacks did not vote because of China Virus, this number may be LOW because the Brennan Center was trying to blame low black turnout on reduced polling places. I think 5.7% is probably LOW, which again is why we should expect a big drop-off in black voting.
Would it be fair to say the Rona is disenfranchising the Black vote?
But Trump supporting black voters, like any other Trump supporting voters, would be highly motivated.
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No doubt. The operative word being “motivated.” If you were an elderly black woman, 75 years old, a Democrat, and your watching TV and poll after poll says Biden will win by 10 AND you have health issues....Would you be motivated to show up? It shocks me, b/c I’m in my forties, healthy, and have no fear of China Virus. But a lot of people do, especially in that demographic.
I wouldn’t be very enthused if I were black and had to pick between two old white guys. I would think that if they’d have to it would be Trump by at least 30%. Mainly because he’s a dude that doesn’t take chit from nobody.
Some say...
If it’s from July it is not instructive. This is just a call arms for black votein Milwaukee
> Many churches are barely operating now and, besides, 15 elderly black folks are not going to pile in a van with China Virus. In fact, getting volunteers to drive the GOTV vehicles will be a challenge.
Yeah, this is going to kill black, elderly turn out, especially in the South.
Women and minorities hardest hit.
If it’s from July it is not instructive
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Respectfully disagree. If there was a drop-off in black PRIMARY voters, who are typically more likely to vote than general election voters, b/c of China Virus....logically wouldn’t there be a drop-off in black voting in the general election?
Many churches are barely operating now and, besides, 15 elderly black folks are not going to pile in a van with China Virus. In fact, getting volunteers to drive the GOTV vehicles will be a challenge.
Yeah, this is going to kill black, elderly turn out, especially in the South.
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EXACTLY. Many people don’t understand the EFFORTS that are made to get rural and urban black folks to the polls. Whites just in get in their car an drive to the polls. Also, there will be no “Souls to the Polls” with busloads of elderly black voters. Not happening.
I wouldn’t be very enthused if I were black and had to pick between two old white guysYea because the younger black president did so much for them. < /sarcasm >
I think it’s a different atmosphere but I could be wrong since I am nowhere near the area in question.
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