I work on major infrastructure planning projects, and before the COVID-19 fiasco the latest numbers I had seen were that something on the order of 1.6 to 1.7 million people commuted into Manhattan on a typical weekday. That number effectively doubles the island's population of 1.6 million residents every day of the work week.
The "green shoots of new growth" you mention are going to happen. But they're going to happen in the places where those 1.6-1.7 million people LIVE, not where they used to WORK.
Well, that may be. I don’t have a handle on the demographics.
Recently I saw a report on a gazillion $$$ development somewhere on Manhattan. They apparently tore down a lot of old stuff and built a monster development. The video showed gleaming floors and storefronts but no people. I would hate to be the bankers with outstanding loans on that place.