Florida Early Vote update, 10/01/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/01/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).

4.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.

4.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 5.2% of DEM ballots have been returned.

10/01/20: REPs - 65,516, DEMs - 126,602, lead of 61,086 for DEMs, 53.4% to 27.7%

09/30/20: REPs - 36,075, DEMs - 70,349, lead of 34,274 for DEMs, 53.3% to 27.3%

09/29/20: REPs - 9,330, DEMs - 18,190, lead of 8,860 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.5%

09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%

09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%

09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%

09/25/20: REPs - 754, DEMs - 1,673, lead of 919 for DEMs, 55.0% to 24.8%

[SpeedyInTexas]

Similar time to 2016 (33 days before election):

10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs

[SpeedyInTexas]

Summary if you don’t want to read through all the calculations DEMs need to lead VBM ballots returned by 565,000 for Biden to win Florida. Note that 60,000 more Republicans voted in 2016 vs Democrats despite Dems having a 330,000 voter registration lead in Florida. 2016 Statistics 9.590m out of 13.7m registered voters turned out (74.5%) 74.4% of Florida’s 4.908m Democrats voted = 3.65m 81.2% of Florida’s 4.577m Republicans voted = 3.71m (60k lead) 63.3% of Florida’s 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted = 1.98m 70.2% of Florida’s 0.347m Third Party registrants voted = 0.243m 79.6% of REP VBM ballots were returned. 74.1% of DEM VBM ballots were returned. 2.629m Democrats voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 72.0% of total Dem votes. 2.533m Republicans voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 68.3% of total Rep votes. 1.021m Democrats voted on Election Day which is 28% of total Dem votes. 1.170m Republicans voted on Election Day which is 31.7% of total Rep votes. 60k more Republicans voted in total. Lets assume crossover votes are similar. Trump won state by 113k. Thus Trump won another 53k net from NPAs. 2020 Statistics 14.065m registered voters. Assuming a turnout of 74.5%, means 10.478m voters. Say 3% of votes go to third party candidates = 0.314m Say 300k invalid votes (there were 160k invalid in 2016). Winner would need around 4.932m to win the state. 4,733,359 registered Democrats. If 74.4% vote, that would be 3.521m 4,459,087 registered Republicans. If 81.2% vote, that would be 3.620m That would give Republicans a 99k vote lead. Trump winning NPAs at the same rate as 2016, would give Republicans another 58k. 99k+58k = 157k A Trump win of 157K in 2020 is a reasonable prediction vs 113k win in 2016. How is 2020 Looking? Dems have requested 2,389,681 VMB ballots. That is 50.4% of all registered Dems. Reps have requested 1,631,839 VMB ballots. That is 36.6% of all registered Reps. We still have In Person Early Voting and Election Day Voting. Notice that Dem 2016 VBM returns 74.1% was nearly equal to total number of Dems voting 74.4%. I think that is a key metric to watch this year. As Dem VBM returns come in, are they exceeding 74%? As of today they are at 5.2%. A number greater than 74% will show Dem enthusiasm or lack thereof. In order for Dems to win, they need to overcome a projected 157k Trump win. To do that, they need to increase the percentage of Dems voting from 74.4% in 2016 to about 78% in 2020. Sanity Check Is 78% a correct threshold for Dems to win (assuming Reps maintain 81.2% and Trump wins NPAs in a similar proportion to 2016)? Lets run the numbers. 78.0% of Florida’s 4,733,359 Democrats voted = 3.692m 81.2% of Florida’s 4,459,087 Republicans voted = 3.620m Gives Dems a 72k lead to overcome a projected 56k Trump win with NPAs. Turning 78% into a Dem Min VBM Threshold 78% of Dems 2,389,681 requested VMB ballots = 1.863m 79.6% of Reps 1,631,839 requested VMB ballots = 1.298m DEMs need to lead VBM ballots returned by 565,000 [79.6% is how many Reps returned ballots in 2016].

[SpeedyInTexas]

Let me work on the formatting...

[LoveMyFreedom]

It looks like the DEMs are afraid to go the polling booth and vote.

[dp0622]

Why did you put up the plans for Apollo 11 and not the voting numbers?

Oh I’m sorry. You did. :)

[Saveourcountry]

They mailed out ballots to everyone regardless of whether they were requested. We received ours which we plan to take to the polls when early voting starts. We never requested them. I suspect that they will turn a lot of people away who do not bring the mail in ballots with them with the excuse that they don’t know if they have already voted by mail.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Summary if you don’t want to read through all the calculations
DEMs need to lead VBM ballots returned by 565,000 for Biden to win Florida.

Note that 60,000 more Republicans voted in 2016 vs Democrats despite Dems having a 330,000 voter registration lead in Florida.


2016 Statistics
9.590m out of 13.7m registered voters turned out (74.5%)

74.4% of Florida’s 4.908m Democrats voted = 3.65m

81.2% of Florida’s 4.577m Republicans voted = 3.71m (60k lead)

63.3% of Florida’s 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted = 1.98m

70.2% of Florida’s 0.347m Third Party registrants voted = 0.243m

79.6% of REP VBM ballots were returned.

74.1% of DEM VBM ballots were returned.

2.629m Democrats voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 72.0% of total Dem votes.

2.533m Republicans voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 68.3% of total Rep votes.

1.021m Democrats voted on Election Day which is 28% of total Dem votes.

1.170m Republicans voted on Election Day which is 31.7% of total Rep votes.

60k more Republicans voted in total. Lets assume crossover votes are similar. Trump won state by 113k. Thus Trump won another 53k net from NPAs.


2020 Statistics
14.065m registered voters. Assuming a turnout of 74.5%, means 10.478m voters.

Say 3% of votes go to third party candidates = 0.314m

Say 300k invalid votes (there were 160k invalid in 2016).

Winner would need around 4.932m to win the state.

4,733,359 registered Democrats. If 74.4% vote, that would be 3.521m

4,459,087 registered Republicans. If 81.2% vote, that would be 3.620m

That would give Republicans a 99k vote lead. Trump winning NPAs at the same rate as 2016, would give Republicans another 58k. 99k+58k = 157k

A Trump win of 157K in 2020 is a reasonable prediction vs 113k win in 2016.


How is 2020 Looking?
Dems have requested 2,389,681 VMB ballots. That is 50.4% of all registered Dems.

Reps have requested 1,631,839 VMB ballots. That is 36.6% of all registered Reps.

We still have In Person Early Voting and Election Day Voting.

Notice that Dem 2016 VBM returns 74.1% was nearly equal to total number of Dems voting 74.4%. I think that is a key metric to watch this year.

As Dem VBM returns come in, are they exceeding 74%? As of today they are at 5.2%. A number greater than 74% will show Dem enthusiasm or lack thereof.

In order for Dems to win, they need to overcome a projected 157k Trump win. To do that, they need to increase the percentage of Dems voting from 74.4% in 2016 to about 78% in 2020.


Sanity Check
Is 78% a correct threshold for Dems to win (assuming Reps maintain 81.2% and Trump wins NPAs in a similar proportion to 2016)? Lets run the numbers.

78.0% of Florida’s 4,733,359 Democrats voted = 3.692m

81.2% of Florida’s 4,459,087 Republicans voted = 3.620m

Gives Dems a 72k lead to overcome a projected 56k Trump win with NPAs.


Turning 78% into a Dem Min VBM Threshold
78% of Dems 2,389,681 requested VMB ballots = 1.863m

79.6% of Reps 1,631,839 requested VMB ballots = 1.298m

DEMs need to lead VBM ballots returned by 565,000

[79.6% is how many Reps returned ballots in 2016].

[SpeedyInTexas]

That formatting looks better. For some reason putting html bold tags in the posting seemed to mess up the line breaks. I had to add html line breaks after each line to get it to format correct.

[byecomey]

While you work on your formatting, let me try and see if I can double-check your numbers:

Florida has an unusually strong VBM/early vote history that doesn’t reflect the rest of the country, so it’s hard to figure out “models.”

In 2016, 3,710,000 Republicans voted and 3,650,000 Democrats voted by mail. This was split 31.7% in-person, 30% absentee, and 38.4% early for Republicans and 28% in-person, 28.8% absentee, and 43.3% early for Democrats.

Currently, Democrats stand at 2.4MM VBM sign-ups (some percent of which will not be returned) . That is 65% of their 2016 turnout.

Currently, Republicans stand at 1.6MM VBM signups. That is 44.6% of their 2016 turnout.

You have some percent that won’t be returned, but also some percent that will have new sign-ups. No idea how that is going to shake.

Overall, I think considering ~71% of Democrats voted early or by mail, I’d like to see the combined VBM returns + early vote kept under 80% (which is 2,920,000. Lower is better.

I would like to see Republicans have a combined VBM + Early Day return of about 2.6MM or 70%. Higher is better.

[byecomey]

Nice calculations!!!!

[JonPreston]

Thanks for this.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I believe Florida keeps VBM requests on file for 2 years. So if someone requested a VBM ballot at some point that request carries over.

Maybe you requested a VBM in a previous election and that is why you got one for this election?

In general, Florida is not mailing out a ballot to every registered voter.

[georgiarat]

Thanks for the analysis!

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yep all your numbers are correct. Let me comment on this:

“Overall, I think considering ~71% of Democrats voted early or by mail, I’d like to see the combined VBM returns + early vote kept under 80% (which is 2,920,000. Lower is better.

I would like to see Republicans have a combined VBM + Early Day return of about 2.6MM or 70%. Higher is better.”

In 2016, 2.629m Democrats voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 72.0% of total Dem votes. That percentage is very likely to go up. I think it could hit 75-80%.

In 2016, 2.533m Republicans voted early (VBM and IPEV) which is 68.3% of total Rep votes. Again, that percentage is likely to go up. I think it could hit 70-75%.

50% of DEM votes will be VBM. They need a huge lead to survive Election Day voting by Reps.

Also note, the 565,000 lead Dems need to win is a calculation only for VBM. Adding in IPEV, they need an even larger lead! That number is harder to calculate. I’ll just wait for IPEV stats to be reported from Florida to see how many are voting to calculate that number.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Why did you put up the plans for Apollo 11 and not the voting numbers?”

Yes, I had a laugh at that.

[V V Camp Enari 67-68]

Excuse me but I just can’t get into all these numbers etc. Too old and too early in the morning. Just tell me who is ahead, that would suffice.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Dems have returned 61,000 more ballots so far in Florida than Reps. I estimate that Dems need to have a lead of 565,000 in vote by mail for Biden to win Florida - to offset Rep election day voting.

[lovesdogs]

From the myflorida.com site:

Instructions are included with the vote-by-mail ballot. If the voter decides to go to the polls to vote, the voter should bring the vote-by-mail ballot (marked or not). The vote-by-mail ballot will be canceled and the voter can vote a regular ballot at the polls. If the voter comes to the polls without the vote-by-mail ballot, the voter can vote a regular ballot if the supervisor of elections’ office can confirm that it has not received the voter’s vote-by-mail ballot. If it is confirmed that the supervisor of elections office has already received the voted vote-by-mail ballot or it cannot be determined, the voter cannot vote a regular ballot at the polls. However, if a voter believes that he or she has not already voted, he or she shall be allowed to vote a provisional ballot.

[byecomey]

Well, in the primary last month, the Democrats beat the Republicans in VBM but the Republicans kicked their *** as far as early voting (a first). That was the middle of the Florida spike, if I remember correctly. 298K R EV vs 222K D EV.

If we see a similar whooping in EV, the election will be easy to predict.

[Saveourcountry]

That is good to know. Yes, in 2016 we voted by mail. Very reassuring.