Posted on 09/28/2020 10:03:03 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Yeah - sorry should have noted that I wasn't posting it AT you or in argument of your post.
There really are still people out there who think case counts are relative at all.
First of all, it’s not “my 10% immunity”; it’s 10% that have been or currently are infected. Widespread antibody testing has confirmed that’s an accurate number. There’s a lot of evidence from multiple angles (serology testing, working backwards from confirmed and excess deaths, statistical modeling, etc.) that confirm we’re at about 10% who have been or currently are infected.
Secondly, the only “forecast” for 2 million deaths was from an early model where the report that came with the model SPECIFICALLY STATED it was HIGHLY UNLIKELY you would ever see those numbers because the model depended on no changes being made to any personal behavior or policy. Since that never happens during a pandemic, they stated those numbers were definitely going to be well over the reality. It was the MEDIA that took those numbers and proclaimed them as gospel. Frankly, it’s anti-science to bring them up in the context that claims all models are bad because one early model was misquoted.
Here’s the actual numbers: R0 2.5 (CDC). IFR 0.65% (CDC). HIT 60% (1-1/R0). US population: 330,369,103 (https://www.census.gov/popclock/).
330,369,103 x 0.6 (HIT) = 198,221,462
198,221,462 x 0.0065 (IFR) = 1,288,440
That’s about the upper bound in a worst-case scenario where the IFR goes unchanged and we never get any vaccine or develop any new mitigation strategies. However, we’ll have multiple vaccines and probably 100 million doses available by the end of this year. Assuming they’re put to use with the most high risk groups (e.g. front line medical personnel) first, we should see dramatic drops in transmission, which will cut the end number of deaths way down as well.
The truth isn’t that scary. The truth is there’s both a ceiling to the worst-case scenario and a much much lower ceiling for the most likely scenario. If we’re open and honest with people and prepare them for the reality of the situation, they tend to not be afraid. When we make pie-in-the-sky promises that turn out to be nonsense (like claiming everyone is already immune so there’s no disease anymore), THAT scares people as much as overhyping the whole thing does.
Jus tin tile for the election! Amazing how that works!
Cheer up. Americans have a way of confronting and mastering the challenges set before us. I have seen it done several times in my life, and our national history is loaded with such episodes.
If the disease rate were holding steady, statistically, half of the states would have rising numbers, and half lower, simply due to random variation. The fact that the number is only 21, not 25 (half of 50), means that the disease rate is falling, not rising.
It’s so the riot crowd can stay home from work and create a ruckus.
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