I believe Trump is going to carry Florida, even against Bloomberg's money but this pick will sit on the court for at least another generation. We have got to get it right.
Posted on 09/24/2020 2:25:31 AM PDT by familyop
President Trump will select a Supreme Court nominee to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg within a matter of days. We know that it will be a woman. And based on multiple reports, the top two potential finalists are Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Circuit, and Judge Barbara Lagoa of the Eleventh Circuit. A law professor at Notre Dame, Barrett was confirmed 55-43 (nearly exactly along party lines) to her current post in the fall of 2017, following a contentious process. To be clear, I believe Barrett is a brilliant and capable jurist and would be thrilled if President Trump picks her. She's young (48), smart, and rock solid. She is the frontrunner for good reason. That being said, it's simply a reality that this nomination will be the subject of a pitched battle no matter who is named. And against that backdrop, I am coming around to the view that Judge Lagoa might be the more strategically savvy choice under the present circumstances -- and should at least get a very serious look for the top spot on the list. Consider:
(1) Lagoa's credentials are strong. Like Justice Ginsburg, she's a graduate of Columbia University's law school. She began her career on the bench as a lower court judge in Florida starting in 2006 (appointed by Gov. Jeb Bush) after serving as an Assistant US Attorney. She was elevated to the Florida Supreme Court by Gov. Ron DeSantis (who takes the issue of the courts very seriously) in January 2019, serving in that capacity for most of the year, until she was plucked from the state bench by Trump. The president nominated her for the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals. Her resume practically screams "well qualified" -- which is how she was unanimously rated by the left-leaning American Bar Association.
(2) Her personal story is also compelling, which is -- like it or not -- a relevant factor in an era of identity-focused politics. Lagoa is the daughter of Cuban-Americans who fled their homeland during the Communist revolution. She is young (she'll turn 53 the day before the November election), the mother of three daughters, and is said to have a vivacious personality. If confirmed, this "wise Latina" would be the second-ever Hispanic member of the Supreme Court and only the fifth woman (the latter would also be true of Barrett). Democrats are likely to be extremely aggressive in opposing this nominee (just look at their outrageous conduct during the Kavanaugh nomination), but the optics of beating up on a Latina would be less than ideal -- especially at a moment when Democrats are anxiously watching President Trump over-perform among Latino voters in the polls.
(3) Did I mention she's a Floridian? I've heard that state is a pretty important one.
(4) Chuck Schumer famously once said, "I always use the word 'extreme'" to discredit conservative ideas or nominees. Democrats will undoubtedly play that card against whomever Trump taps for this seat, but their go-to moniker would ring especially hollow if deployed against Lagoa. Why? She was overwhelmingly confirmed to the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals late last year. The final tally was 80-15 in favor. Senate Democrats voted to confirm her by nearly a two-to-one margin. The following Democratic members of the judiciary committee supported her confirmation: Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Coons (D-DE), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Pat Leahy (D-VT), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). That's right, the four most senior Democrats on the committee voted Yea, as did Hillary Clinton's 2016 running mate. The only Democratic member of the committee who voted against her was Mazie Hirono (several others who were busy running for president did not vote). Also, every GOP senator voted in the affirmative, including Collins and Murkowski. Democrats will stomp their feet and say "but the Supreme Court is different!" Fine. But it's awfully hard to frame a nominee as dangerously radical and extreme when a large majority of your own party recently backed her confirmation to another powerful federal court. This is a serious asset for Lagoa. Her nomination could be framed as a more consensus and 'moderate' pick, which could raise the odds of a successful confirmation under difficult, high-pressure conditions.
(5) A conservative source who's long known Lagoa attests that her conservative credentials are strong, despite a relatively thin record on hot-button cases.
Conservatives often fear David Souter-style betrayals, and for good reason. This source says there is "zero chance" Lagoa, whom the source likens to Clarence Thomas, is a risk to become an Anthony Kennedy, let alone a Souter. She is said to have won the confidence of several very strong conservatives who are very familiar with her work. But let's say for the sake of argument that she could end up becoming, say, a John Roberts, who disappoints conservatives, sometimes seriously, on occasion (I have no reason to believe this would be the case, and it merits a mention that Lagoa has been involved with the Federalist Society for years). That would still be an immense ideological upgrade from Justice Ginsburg. Which is to say, I'm less fixated than I typically would be on the demonstrable philosophical bona fides of this particular nominee at this particular moment in time. Republicans will need to thread a needle, given the timing of this vacancy. A huge strategic consideration, under these conditions, must be making opposition as difficult as possible. A Barbara Lagoa nomination could present some real optics landmines for Democrats, and it would align with the Trump campaign's aggressive courtship of voters of color at the Republicans' August convention. In other words, it would play to Trump's instincts and strategy.
I'd like to see more assurances about the underpinnings and consistency of her judicial philosophy (I've spoken to some plugged-in conservatives I trust who at least have questions about the depth of her commitment to conservative jurisprudence) -- and it's especially crucial that she's totally buttoned up from a vetting perspective. Yes, she just passed through a very recent confirmation process with flying colors (some of the conservative doubters ask why she received 80 votes, including the support of some extremely liberal Senators). But SCOTUS is a different beast with different stakes. Just ask Justice Kavanaugh. But time is of the essence. If Lagoa is determined to be a sufficiently vetted and conservative jurist, I believe she may be an ideal candidate for the position, in light of all the emotionally-charged and politically-fraught dynamics at play. And if not ideal, she's at least worthy of a very, very serious look. I'll leave you with Lagoa's remarks upon being nominated for Florida's high court, which shed more light on her personal and family narrative:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZCrIhm0dB8
Barbara Lagoa and Robert Luck: What Are They Saying?
https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/barbara-lagoa-and-robert-luck-what-are-they-saying/
Why do progressives like her so much?
Fox News is pushing very hard for Barrett now. Fox News did the same before Justice Kavanaugh was nominated. And no, she hasn’t been chosen. There will be Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. Chances for disaster in the election will be high.
Amy Coney Barrett is not ‘wildly’ out of mainstream: Brit Hume
https://www.foxnews.com/faith-values/supreme-court-amy-coney-barrett-britt-hume
Starr calls divided SCOTUS ‘recipe for mischief’, says Amy Coney Barrett ‘odds-on favorite’ for nomination
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ken-starr-supreme-court-amy-coney-barrett
Media assault on Amy Coney Barrett begins as Trump weighs decision
https://www.foxnews.com/media/media-assault-on-amy-coney-barrett-begins-as-trump-weighs-decision
May God’s will be done. May it be the woman of HIs choosing for such a time as this. LORD give the President Your word and Your peace regarding who it should be. I also lift up the Lagoa and Barrett families in prayer.
Barrett was confirmed along party lines with 3 Dems crossing over.
Both seem to be politically expedient.
I’m fine with Barrett, Lagoa, or Larsen. But, once in love with Amy, . . .
I prefer Barrett.
And putting Lagoa on the Supreme Court because it will help in the election which is 6 weeks away seems like short-term thinking. I want to focus on what’s best for the bench, not what might help us win Florida.
Not only is she from Florida, Trump knows her choice would be warmly received by the huge growing hispanic voter base.
It’s a lifetime appointment that will ring in the liberals ears for decades.
Not only is she from Florida, Trump knows her choice would be warmly received nationwide by the huge growing hispanic voter base.
It’s a lifetime appointment that will ring in the liberals ears for decades.
Unfortunately, Lagoa has earned a reputation of being self-centered, not a hard worker, shallow, and relentlessly ambitious. On the Supreme Court, she would be vulnerable to flattery and reputational pressures from the Left and Washington’s social circles.
I believe Trump is going to carry Florida, even against Bloomberg's money but this pick will sit on the court for at least another generation. We have got to get it right.
Florida Republicans: Nominating Lagoa could clinch state for Trump
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/20/florida-republicans-lagoa-trump-419109
That may have to do with the Senators in the Circuit. The several Dem senators in the 7th (IL WI IN) may have asked others to oppose Barrett. Senator Jones of AL is the only Dem in the 11th and was probably mum. Plus no Dem wants to vote against a latina.
I doubt many people will even know about the Supreme Court pick. And the Cubans who do know and care, are probably already voting for Trump, anyway.
To make a difference, it would need to be someone who won a statewide race, or is widely popular in Florida.
Maybe if he replaced Pence with Lagoa, it would make a difference. Who knows.
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