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Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’
NOEMA ^ | 09/10/2020 | JACK A. GOLDSTONE AND PETER TURCHIN

Posted on 09/20/2020 12:16:38 PM PDT by Fzob

Our model is based on the fact that across history, what creates the risk of political instability is the behavior of elites, who all too often react to long-term increases in population by committing three cardinal sins. First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality. Second, facing greater competition for elite wealth and status, they tighten up the path to mobility to favor themselves and their progeny. For example, in an increasingly meritocratic society, elites could keep places at top universities limited and raise the entry requirements and costs in ways that favor the children of those who had already succeeded.

Third, anxious to hold on to their rising fortunes, they do all they can to resist taxation of their wealth and profits, even if that means starving the government of needed revenues, leading to decaying infrastructure, declining public services and fast-rising government debts.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: blog; civilwar

1 posted on 09/20/2020 12:16:38 PM PDT by Fzob
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To: Fzob

This is satire, right?


2 posted on 09/20/2020 12:19:29 PM PDT by ConservativeInPA ("War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength." - George Orwell, 1984)
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To: ConservativeInPA

No, not satire. I thought it interesting although the authors get much wrong it raises trends that definitely point to a very bumpy future.


3 posted on 09/20/2020 12:24:50 PM PDT by Fzob
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To: Fzob

Bookmark


4 posted on 09/20/2020 12:38:10 PM PDT by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: Fzob

Tax the rich! That’ll solve all of our problems.


5 posted on 09/20/2020 12:48:06 PM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: Fzob

Bring back the flappers.


6 posted on 09/20/2020 12:48:43 PM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: LibWhacker
Tax the rich! That’ll solve all of our problems.

On the other hand, decreasing the population 50% would solve the problem too.

7 posted on 09/20/2020 1:14:30 PM PDT by seowulf
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To: LibWhacker
Tax the rich! That’ll solve all of our problems.

...and the band played on.

8 posted on 09/20/2020 1:15:06 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Fzob
First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality.

This sentence makes no sense. It is based on false premises.

9 posted on 09/20/2020 1:38:02 PM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: Fzob

The big question: What if Trump wins but doesn’t concede?


10 posted on 09/20/2020 2:59:36 PM PDT by TexasKamaAina
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To: Fzob

terrorist twenties

trotsky twenties


11 posted on 09/20/2020 3:00:58 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Fzob

“ No, not satire....”

No, it sure is not satire! Turchin is one smart cookie. I read one of his books over 15 years ago’ War anD Peace and War. https://amzn.to/32L2KJh

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin

Some may not like what he says, but he is certainly not the first and only one to predict what we are living. AND it has certainly happened many times before as he and others have written.

IC Clearly


12 posted on 09/20/2020 6:44:52 PM PDT by icclearly
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