Posted on 09/17/2020 9:40:43 PM PDT by DoodleBob
The coronavirus pandemic has hit the world’s major economies four times harder than the financial crisis did a decade ago, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday.
OECD said gross domestic product in most Group of 20 nations, which account for 90% of the global economy, dropped a record 6.9%. That compares to a 1.6% drop in the first quarter of 2009 at the height of the Great Recession. China was the only G-20 nation to record growth in the second quarter, 11.5%, while all other G-20 countries recorded an average 11.8% contraction.
The pandemic ravaged China during the first quarter.
GDP fell most dramatically in India (25.2%), followed by the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Africa and France. U.S. GDP fell 9.1%.
On an annual basis, GDP for the G-20 was off 9.1% for the quarter following a 1.7% contraction the first quarter. China’s annual growth rate was pegged at 3.2%.
In its latest Global Economic Outlook, Fitch Ratings said world GDP fell 8.9% in the second quarter and projected global GDP would be 4.4% lower for the year, a modest improvement from its 4.6% projection in June.
"China has already regained its pre-virus level of GDP and retail sales in the U.S., France and the U.K. now exceed February levels, but we doubt this will become the much-lauded 'V'-shaped recovery. Unemployment shocks lie ahead in Europe, firms are cutting capex, and social distancing continues to directly constrain private-sector spending...We do not expect the pace of expansion in recent months to continue, as the boost from reopening fades, labor market dislocations constrain consumer spending, and firms retrench on capex [capital expenditures]. And with the virus outbreak not yet contained, social distancing behavior and ongoing restrictions will drag on activity."
(Excerpt) Read more at ibtimes.com ...
Among the 'winners' were the United States, where our GDP was 300 basis point (i.e., three percentage points) better than the modeled estimate; this means that, given our level of fatalities, our economy should have suffered more. Other 'winners' include much-maligned Sweden, South Korea, Ireland, and the grand-prize winner Taiwan. In fact, there is a statistically significant relationship between the adjusted fatality total and whether or not the country is an island.
Big 'losers' include India (which got trashed even though it hasn't had a massive adjusted fatality total), Mexico, Philippines, Spain, and the UK.
| Country | 2Q GDP | US-Equiv COVID19 Fatalities as of June 30, 2020 | Modeled 2Q GDP Change | Actual-Modeled GDP |
| Australia | (7.0) | 1,335 | (9.6) | 2.6 |
| Austria | (10.7) | 26,098 | (10.1) | (0.6) |
| Belgium | (12.2) | 278,728 | (15.1) | 2.9 |
| Brazil | (9.7) | 92,930 | (11.4) | 1.7 |
| Canada | (12.0) | 75,059 | (11.0) | (1.0) |
| Chile | (14.1) | 98,105 | (11.5) | (2.6) |
| Denmark | (7.4) | 34,242 | (10.2) | 2.8 |
| France | (13.8) | 146,639 | (12.5) | (1.3) |
| Germany | (10.1) | 35,631 | (10.2) | 0.1 |
| Iceland | (9.1) | 9,047 | (9.7) | 0.6 |
| India | (23.9) | 4,215 | (9.6) | (14.3) |
| Indonesia | (5.3) | 3,551 | (9.6) | 4.3 |
| Ireland | (6.1) | 116,247 | (11.9) | 5.8 |
| Israel | (7.3) | 11,488 | (9.8) | 2.5 |
| Italy | (12.4) | 190,190 | (13.3) | 0.9 |
| Japan | (7.9) | 2,543 | (9.6) | 1.7 |
| Mexico | (17.1) | 72,299 | (11.0) | (6.1) |
| Netherlands | (8.5) | 115,801 | (11.8) | 3.3 |
| New Zealand | (12.2) | 1,457 | (9.6) | (2.6) |
| Philippines | (16.5) | 3,846 | (9.6) | (6.9) |
| Portugal | (14.1) | 50,540 | (10.5) | (3.6) |
| Singapore | (11.8) | 1,502 | (9.6) | (2.2) |
| South Korea | (3.2) | 1,795 | (9.6) | 6.4 |
| Spain | (18.5) | 198,397 | (13.5) | (5.0) |
| Sweden | (8.6) | 170,081 | (12.9) | 4.3 |
| Switzerland | (8.2) | 75,341 | (11.0) | 2.8 |
| Taiwan | (1.4) | 98 | (9.5) | 8.1 |
| Turkey | (11.0) | 20,335 | (9.9) | (1.1) |
| United Kingdom | (20.4) | 217,346 | (13.9) | (6.5) |
| United States | (9.1) | 127,417 | (12.1) | 3.0 |
**- GDP estimate = -9.539196106 + -1.99075E-05 * US-equivalent fatalities. r2=0.0995; P-value on the entire regression of 0.0896, reflecting the large variation between US-equivalent fatality totals and 2nd quarter GDP percentage change. Clearly, research should be conducted on adding more variables, like unemployment, suicides, and other things.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientest to understand locking down and regulating business because of covid was, is, and will do more harm than the virus itself.
We’ve been screaming “open it up” for the last three months......at some point people just have to do it... period!
So now we have the “Great Recession” 10 years ago as opposed to the “Great Depression” that took place 80 years ago?
And can we get a GD break from the heavy breathing about the virus not being contained. That is absolute BS. If the flu death and case tally was kept as dishonestly as the coronavirus tally... we would have an equally bad crisis every three years or so. This is the most over hyped exaggerated nonsense imaginable.
Today, we are wearing masks while buying a few gross of TP while people near NYC are getting above asking price on their home.
Go figya.
They snuffed the virus and "opened" the country. They didn't have a case for about 100 days and lectured the world about how great they were.
Aaaaand then, miraculously (!), a case appeared...and then another...and then they locked down Auckland. While many people in NZ are ok with this practice, a few are saying the ups and downs are murder on them.
In a separate post I hinted that NZ's overzealous lockdowns probably shaved a good 2.6 percentage points of growth potential off their 2nd quarter GDP. I didn't even account for suicides, increased stress levels or spousal or child or drug abuse, etc.
"Containment" as a strategy is as effective as Deep Woods Off..it may work for a while, but eventually it wears off and you get chewed up.
I felt the 08 Crash much worse than this as it never seemed to recover thanks to the supposedly smartest president we’ve had.
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