Posted on 09/13/2020 9:11:05 AM PDT by bitt
Finally, a few people are beginning to recognize what the Republican Party in Pennsylvania has been doing for the last four years: registering voters. A new Politico piece points out that while the polls tell one story . . . wait for it . . . “there’s a more tangible piece of data. . . that tells a different story.” Now you, my reader friends, this is nothing new. I’ve said it in every single column. Polls vs. reality. “Biden up 9 in Michigan,” vs. Trump with thousands (during a lock-down) in an airplane hangar. Then there is Pennsylvania.
This is, quite frankly, the presidency, though I will be enormously disappointed and you can condemn me as wrong if Trump doesn’t achieve two milestones: getting a higher electoral vote total than in 2016, and winning the popular vote. But when it comes to simply winning the presidency, the Keystone State is it this cycle.
You see, as best I can tell, Trump already has the Eastern triumvirate of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Yesterday, Richard Baris of Big Data Poll said that both Florida and North Carolina were in Trump’s column. The former came as a real shock to the Hoax News Pollsters why had been portraying the Sunshine State as “close.” But polling (yes, polling) last week showed Trump doing exceptionally well with Hispanics, and all the data manipulation the pollsters could do with “alienated seniors” didn’t seem to work. Meanwhile, they missed the real key, as usual, which was Republicans out-registering Democrats last month in Miami-Dade County. For the past two months, I’ve been posting Florida county updates on my Twitter page (@LarrySchweikart) and the upshot is this: red counties are doing even better than in 2016, but even in blue counties, the sheer size of GOP registrations is impressive. (Note that Joe Biden, who “is doing well with seniors,” they keep telling us, is not even running ads in Florida). And today, the Eleventh Circuit Court reversed an injunction entered by a district judge that allowed Florida felons to vote who hadn’t paid the fines that was part of their sentences. This removes yet another 50,000 or so likely Biden Florida voters.
North Carolina has also seen massive GOP registration gains. Democrat activists are trying to hoist the “early vote” flag there, but longtime ballot analyst “Ravi” from www.freerepublic.com thinks this is pure cannibalization of election day votes. “Wait until October 15 when in-person early voting starts and then you’ll see the red tide,” he wrote to me. “Mark my words. Overall voter registration changes from 2016 to 2020 will soon become apparent.” He was referring to the Red Team 2.13 million voters there. Every week in North Carolina Republicans reduce the Democrat registration advantage by 3,000. In 2016—when Trump won the Tar Heel State by 173,000 votes—Republicans have slashed 230,000 off the Democrats’ statewide lead! Once again, Trump will win North Carolina by more than he did in 2016, just as will be the case in Florida, where he should win by a quarter-million votes.
...more...
Pretty minimal stuff.
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how bout orange county & other cali congressional races in 18?
Pet peeve. It’s not a “Patriot’s Guide.”
Sorry, Larry. No blood, no foul, eh? I was just looking for it in 6 different bookcases 2-deep. It could be in a box somewhere. I have it somewhere with my notes on it. I was re-reading parts a couple of months ago. My wife reads much more than I do. We need a bigger house just for our books.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oq-VyhONVr0
Thanks for your work, sir.
One more thing...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio
https://battlegroundwatch.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/ohio-early-vote-update/
Just saying’...: )
Ahem.
Repeat after me: Ballot harvesting is legal in CA. That is not fraud.
Can’t help it if the GOP is incompetent.
We were 100% right on OH in 2016. Actually just a tad low for Trump when the Hoax Pollsters said 4%, we said 8% (8.9%).
Since 2012, when we were blindsided by the “unaffiliated” voters, who were in fact lazy Ds who did not vote in the primary. Didn’t make that mistake in 2016 when we allocated ALL unaffiliated voters by 20 year voting patterns.
Thanks, Larry. Good Explain. Great to be able to dialogue with such a person/patriot as yourself in a Free Republic.
CIVILIZATION
Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage’s whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of his tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men.
The precondition of a civilized society is the barring of physical force from social relationships—thus establishing the principle that if men wish to deal with one another, they may do so only by means of reason: by discussion, persuasion and voluntary, uncoerced agreement.
The necessary consequence of man’s right to life is his right to self-defense. In a civilized society, force may be used only in retaliation and only against those who initiate its use.
Ayn Rand
Thanks for being accessible, sir. HIGHEST FReegards.
People see with their own eyes, Biden won’t answer questions, media won’t ask tough questions, Biden stumbles and mumbles when speaking - it all adds up to Biden have a bad case of dementia.
I do remember. I remember just about everything he did. He should have been hanged as a traitor.
Yep. And hang out at www.wildworldofhistory.com
We put a ton of free stuff up there, and if you want more I have full lessons on “The Horrible History of Howard Zinn,” “The 1620 Default,” and more. All video and written.
Biden’s ad about his home town being Scranton pisses me off, like he trudged off to the coal mines every day. He left when he was 10. And I had read that he wasn’t born there, although the internet shows that he was.
Trump lived in PA four years when attending Wharton. And didn’t he managed a big construction project for his dad in PA for a few years? (Or maybe it was Ohio.)
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Trump actually lived in PA longer than Joe did?
Thanks so much, Larry. Will do. Life-long-learning BUMP!
(also will pass on to d-i-l who is teaching the youngsters from home via some internet thingy...she’s early elementary in Huron Valley system)
I still love learning (always have)... putting things into historical context, etc.
Thanks.
If you go to the site, you automatically get on the email list and I add 5 pieces a week, some are personal/biographical, some are movies/songs, etc.
”There are checkable records of legitimate, qualified voters in every precinct. Just because a few have gotten away with inflated voter rolls up until the last General and even the last mid-terms, does not mean they can do it again.”
Wasn’t there an estimate of something like 3 million fraudulent ballots counted in the 2016 presidential race? I think even Trump made a reference to California illegal votes or something like that.
BTW, I’m not fear-porning, it’s a legitimate question. Just curious about your thoughts on this.
IMO. CA is its own case with so many illegals under sanctuary, allowed to vote locally, plus the homeless and the harvesting.
IIRC, 3M fraudulent votes in CA is what I read, as well.
Large sanctuary cities are where the fraud will be worst, but Trump is doing well with minorities.
We aren’t going to win CA, no matter what. OTOH, I read of illegals returning to Mexico in such numbers, the towns are full of US license plates and they are straining the economy and infrastructure. Mexican locals are PO’d, reporting the reasons are 1) shut down, 2) no jobs and 3) no stimulus cash.
I have a relative in a high-end assisted living complex. She is so locked down, she even has less contact with staff than before, due to distancing, masks and gloves. Meals are left at her apartment door. She has pulmonary and heart issues, is on constant O2 &, so, is at high risk. She’s mentally competent, but it would be difficult to harvest a vote if she were not.
Every election, my precinct has the number of eligible voters chalked on the board and updates the *have voted* numbers as they occur. The *eligible* included Old Order Amish, who, unlike PA and some other states, do not participate in elections. They are listed by census, but they do not register.
It will happen,IMO, just at lower levels than before and below D threat numbers or our own fear-induced numbers.
My main solace is the fact that the progs had to shut down recounts in 3 states in 2016 as the numbers were coming in far in excess of eligible voters. I think the same happened in notorious South FL counties. Many areas also cleaned up the voter rolls and that is continuing.
Also, the western state fires have to impact the mail-in schemes. So do the numbers of college students not on campus and the numbers of people who are now in 2nd homes....no idea how many of them changed their voter registration or will respond to home state mailed ballots.
Progs use fear as a threat, like the thugs they are. If we all vote in person and I do mean _all_, I think we can bring in a large majority, including the popular vote. The mail-ins will not all be counted or verified. I think the GOP is very much on the ball, from what I’ve read and heard and will contest every possibly fraudulent vote, including going to court.
If we don’t have a verified winner by mid-November, it will be a Constitutional crisis and I believe only the hardened revolutionaries want that. They are not a majority of even the D voters.
The media will bellow and the progs will riot, of course, but if they were so confident, why continue trying to get Trump’s taxes and proclaiming an Impeachment 2.0?
You’re making some really good points, like the impact of the fires and how the shutdown will suppress both voter turnout and fraud as well. Plus, the GOP is much better organized with voter registration this time around.
According to the law, all counting of ballots and resolving of ballot disputes have to be completed by December 8th. There may be legal challenges back and forth but it will have to be done by the 8th as the Supreme Court has upheld.
Best scenario is Trump gets popular vote and the EC, which is looking more and more plausible.
Wondering how many Ds are not changing party, but will vote for Trump?
Could impact states where D party membership is cultural tradition, but individuals are conservative and reject the progs?
Another wildcard.
Progs never extend their suppositions out past the initial extrapolations. Straightline extrapolations do not continue to infinity, forever. There are always inflection points where pendulums swing.
Spidey sense says we are just there, at the very peak of the swing. Reactions to all their threats and direct actions incoming, ASAP. Just my opinion, but people have had enough.
Yes, I’m in Montgomery county - it’s always a Democrat stronghold.
But the Democrats I talk too never say anything positive about their candidate or their platform - it’s just anti Trump. The worst thing for the Democrats is all the unionized workers have switched to Trump and they are loud and proud.
From what I can see there is more than just a “shy Trump voter” effect - there is an “embarrassed Democrat effect”.
Any Democrat that is somewhat rational is embarrassed by all the lying the Democrats are doing.
They know the country isn’t “systemically racist”.
They know cops aren’t shooting people because they are black.
They know the riots are not peaceful protests.
They know children don’t get to choose what gender they prefer.
They know there’s something terribly wrong with Joe Biden.
They realize the impeachment thing was a shameless witch hunt.
They realize the Kavanaugh thing was a shameless witch hunt.
They know know you can’t just believe any accuser without evidence.
They notice it’s Democrat governors who want to shut the economy down.
Of course, 85-90% of Democrats will blindly vote Democrat. But all it takes is 10% of Democrats staying home and you have a Trump landslide
Agreed. Progs don’t understand dependent variables. They change one thing and expect everything else to stay the same.
Yeah. I agree. I know montco union guys who switched to republican because of Trump. It’s those montco soccer moms who just love their abortion rights more than anything on earth. The BLM thing was totally predictably dtaged because Trump was pulling so many blacks away from the dems. They are not coming out for Biden.
“It’s those montco soccer moms who just love their abortion rights more than anything on earth.“
Abortion loving soccer moms...
Socialist public school teachers...
Commuter white collar professional bureaucrat types...
They see socialism as man‘s weapon against nature.
They think a strong central government is what separates us from the animals.
Public schools and child protective services are what saves children from abusive biological parents and the ravages of the rural nuclear family.
State funded abortion protects women from the curse of childbirth.
State guaranteed gender reassignment frees children from the prison of arbitrary birth assigned gender.
Government welfare protects people of color from the heartless inequalities of capitalism, private property and free enterprise.
Nationalized health care and mandatory Pharmaceuticals are all that stand between us and deadly the flora and fauna of Mother Nature.
Government regulated Industrial policy is our only hope against resource depletion and climate change.
Government urban terraforming is the only hope against the blight of rural farm life.
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