Posted on 09/13/2020 9:11:05 AM PDT by bitt
Finally, a few people are beginning to recognize what the Republican Party in Pennsylvania has been doing for the last four years: registering voters. A new Politico piece points out that while the polls tell one story . . . wait for it . . . “there’s a more tangible piece of data. . . that tells a different story.” Now you, my reader friends, this is nothing new. I’ve said it in every single column. Polls vs. reality. “Biden up 9 in Michigan,” vs. Trump with thousands (during a lock-down) in an airplane hangar. Then there is Pennsylvania.
This is, quite frankly, the presidency, though I will be enormously disappointed and you can condemn me as wrong if Trump doesn’t achieve two milestones: getting a higher electoral vote total than in 2016, and winning the popular vote. But when it comes to simply winning the presidency, the Keystone State is it this cycle.
You see, as best I can tell, Trump already has the Eastern triumvirate of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Yesterday, Richard Baris of Big Data Poll said that both Florida and North Carolina were in Trump’s column. The former came as a real shock to the Hoax News Pollsters why had been portraying the Sunshine State as “close.” But polling (yes, polling) last week showed Trump doing exceptionally well with Hispanics, and all the data manipulation the pollsters could do with “alienated seniors” didn’t seem to work. Meanwhile, they missed the real key, as usual, which was Republicans out-registering Democrats last month in Miami-Dade County. For the past two months, I’ve been posting Florida county updates on my Twitter page (@LarrySchweikart) and the upshot is this: red counties are doing even better than in 2016, but even in blue counties, the sheer size of GOP registrations is impressive. (Note that Joe Biden, who “is doing well with seniors,” they keep telling us, is not even running ads in Florida). And today, the Eleventh Circuit Court reversed an injunction entered by a district judge that allowed Florida felons to vote who hadn’t paid the fines that was part of their sentences. This removes yet another 50,000 or so likely Biden Florida voters.
North Carolina has also seen massive GOP registration gains. Democrat activists are trying to hoist the “early vote” flag there, but longtime ballot analyst “Ravi” from www.freerepublic.com thinks this is pure cannibalization of election day votes. “Wait until October 15 when in-person early voting starts and then you’ll see the red tide,” he wrote to me. “Mark my words. Overall voter registration changes from 2016 to 2020 will soon become apparent.” He was referring to the Red Team 2.13 million voters there. Every week in North Carolina Republicans reduce the Democrat registration advantage by 3,000. In 2016—when Trump won the Tar Heel State by 173,000 votes—Republicans have slashed 230,000 off the Democrats’ statewide lead! Once again, Trump will win North Carolina by more than he did in 2016, just as will be the case in Florida, where he should win by a quarter-million votes.
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The giant Schaudenfraude peach tree is getting nice and soft ripe. They are going to get every last thing they want, and experience panic-regret.
I was in Red Lion, PA a couple weeks ago. There was a heavy Biden sign presence.
I’ve lived in Maryland 11 years. Never seen a Presidential campaign ad on TV before this time.
I'm not handwringing about mail-ins. Hopefully, the Trump campaign has legal staff all ready to go.
I remember seeing video of the 2000 Miami-Dade recount, where canvassers tried to move ballot counting to a closed room and people weren't having any of it (there's a Wikipedia entry on this called the Brooks Brothers Riot, but it has the typical left wing spin). Think of that on steroids if they try this with mail in fraud-I don't think the public will put up with it.
I’m in Bucks County, very close to Montgomery county — there is NO way I would put a Trump sign up in my yard or on my car with this current political climate. We’re in a “safe” neighborhood, but I would not be surprised if my car was keyed or my home vandalized if I did so.
We have a few signs in the area, pretty evenly divided. BUT I have noticed a LOT of newly placed American flags, even on telephone poles along the streets. As someone pointed out on another thread. perhaps that is a less obvious way of showing support for Trump/Pence.
There was a post on Pres. Trump’s Facebook today, one woman reported being afraid to put up a Trump 2020 sign or bumper sticker, and at the time I saw her post, over 3 thousand other people had “liked” it, which I took to mean they felt the same way. The “Hate has no Home Here” crowd is actually QUITE hateful, if you don’t toe their line.
I think the Dems are just trying to protect their coattails now. Harris was a shot at black urbanites, to get them to turn out, but they overwhelmingly don’t like her.
I thought back in 2017 that Trump was going to be thrown to the wolves, then it kinda looked like he would make it, then he totally blew the Dems over. I’m going to trust that he has a LOT of things prepared for the next 7 weeks.
As Lou Dobbs points out Mitch McTurdle told his senators not to run with Trump. insane
Trump has 95% base support, Mitch’s guys 20%
Are these Rinos stupid?
Great information! Thanks!
Beats me but a Dem running ads in MD is just weird.
The Counties Of Blue Evil around the beltway overrun our votes two to one, just as a matter of course.
Have you seen the Sad Memories Biden ad where he prostitutes his dead wife and kids because Obamacare would’ve saved them, yet?
Not sure it will be Michelle Obama but you can bet that have a plan B, C and D. They are pure evil.
Everytime a politician uses a dead family member my head explodes. Joe Biden’s team is SHAMELESS. UGHHH But where is out side talking about all the crap he has done over the years. Voting to tax social security... I mean. COME ON, MAN.
excerpt from LS’s piece:
North Carolina has also seen massive GOP registration gains. Democrat activists are trying to hoist the “early vote” flag there, but longtime ballot analyst “Ravi” from www.freerepublic.com thinks this is pure cannibalization of election day votes. “Wait until October 15 when in-person early voting starts and then you’ll see the red tide,” he wrote to me. “Mark my words. Overall voter registration changes from 2016 to 2020 will soon become apparent.” He was referring to the Red Team 2.13 million voters there. Every week in North Carolina Republicans reduce the Democrat registration advantage by 3,000. In 2016—when Trump won the Tar Heel State by 173,000 votes—Republicans have slashed 230,000 off the Democrats’ statewide lead! Once again, Trump will win North Carolina by more than he did in 2016, just as will be the case in Florida, where he should win by a quarter-million votes.
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if polling uses a margin of error around +/- 3.5%, what is the “margin of fraud”?
eg: in NC where trump won in 2016 by 173k votes, would the “margin of fraud” be 175,000 - 200,000 votes to insure a trump victory this year?
eg: in Michigan there trump won by about 9,700 votes in 2016, would the 2020 “margin of fraud” be 10,000? 100,000? 200,000?
No. No surprised though. He’s been lying about his dead wife for decades.
Trump is so far ahead in Ohio that both sides are pulling resources out of it. Remember Ohio went with winner in last 60 years!
Republicans do not trust mail in votes! They used to, but do not any more. This year primaries were quite scary for Republicans as the mail in vote was quite lopsided Democratic. Then the election day came and suddenly all the Republicans showed up! It is quite new phenomenon, it surprised even the most experienced election experts. Media do not account for this trend, by ignorance or by design.
It has been generally accepted that 1% is a margin of fraud. If Republican gets 51% it was safe. But nowaday with ballot harvesting it could be up to 8% (Kim in CA). So far CA only I guess?!
It is vomit inducing. I grew up in mt airy.
Thanks for the mention! Unnecessary but very much appreciated.
I guess I’m paranoid but judging from the crazy “candidates the dims have “elected”,I can’t help but get that little caution signal in my head. Obambi is behind some scheme to grab power again. Can’t figure out exactly what, but it can be very dangerous. I sense that he is behind all the disasters we are facing.
South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Tennessee, list the states we fled to. I don't know how anyone can stay in Southeast Pennsylvania?
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