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Did a Math Error Lead to the Never-Ending COVID-19 Lockdowns?
PJ Media ^ | 09/09/2020 | Stacey Lennox

Posted on 09/10/2020 7:24:37 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

More and more voices are now speaking out on the lockdowns, widespread testing, and other policies associated with the COVID-19 response. Now a professor from the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, Ronald B.Brown, Ph.D., is questioning how mortality data was presented to Congress early in the pandemic.

This hearing was held on March 11, 2020, in front of the House Oversight Committee. During the questioning, Dr. Anthony Fauci asserted that the mortality rate for COVID-19 was 3%. He then extrapolated to claim that if you added in the mildly symptomatic cases, it would probably be about 1%, which is ten times more deadly than the seasonal flu.

Brown asserts that this testimony is what launched campaigns for social distancing, lockdowns, and shelter-in-place orders to varying degrees nationwide. He then goes on to explain that fatality rates are classified in two different ways, while mortality rates are a timebound calculation.

The CDC defines mortality rate as the frequency of deaths within a time period for a well-defined population. To calculate the mortality rate for women under 40 from breast cancer for 2019, you would divide the number of deaths from breast cancer for women under 40 by the total population of women under 40 during that specific calendar year.

A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated as the number of people who die of a disease divided by the total number of confirmed cases of the disease during a period of time. This calculation is a measure of disease severity. Using the example above, the CFR for breast cancer in women under 40 would be divided by the number of confirmed breast cancer cases under 40.

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid19; lockdowns; matherror; mortality; shutdown
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1 posted on 09/10/2020 7:24:37 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

COVID - Fun with numbers


2 posted on 09/10/2020 7:26:44 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (In this circus called the Democrat Party, Biden is the monkey and Harris is the organ grinder...)
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To: SeekAndFind; Cletus.D.Yokel; bagster; All

No PSYCHOPATH EUGENICISTS did...

If anyone hasn’t seen this...straight from the mind of an “evolutionary psychologist” (clever, eh?) at NYU Stern Business School.

Chinese Eugenics...

https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838

“A more mature response would be based on mutual civilizational respect, asking—what can we learn from what the Chinese are doing, how can we help them, and how can they help us to keep up as they create their brave new world?”

Geoffrey Miller

Pompeo: “Indeed, last year, a Chinese Government-backed think tank in Beijing produced a report that assessed all 50 of America’s governors on their attitudes towards China. They labeled each of you “friendly,” “hardline,” or “ambiguous.” “

https://youtu.be/g1BbswU3i10

CHYna

h/t Cletus.D.Yokel


3 posted on 09/10/2020 7:30:54 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: PGalt

Any one with half a brain figured out the lock down should have end after two or three weeks...the data was right there from Europe...


4 posted on 09/10/2020 7:34:01 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: SeekAndFind

Since I retired and moved from Texas to Panama last summer, I’ve lost 25 pounds. Using WHO/CDC models, I should be weightless in another eight years.


5 posted on 09/10/2020 7:34:29 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Let pro athletes police our streets since they think they can do it better.)
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To: SeekAndFind
No, the left's never-ending search for control of the masses drove the lockdown.

It's no different than the global warming hoax, except with better near-term leverage.

6 posted on 09/10/2020 7:35:48 AM PDT by G Larry (There is no merit in compromising with the Devil.)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

“Figures lie and liars figure

Just tell me what you want and I’ll provide the numbers to back you up.


7 posted on 09/10/2020 7:37:01 AM PDT by billyboy15
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To: SeekAndFind

As many FR Flubros attempted to point out at the time.


8 posted on 09/10/2020 7:38:09 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated as the number of people who die of a disease divided by the total number of confirmed cases of the disease during a period of time.”

Not exactly true. We almost always assume both deaths and positives. In April, about 245,000 had formally tested positive for the flu and about 24,500 had died. That is a fatality rate of 10%.

However, the CDC was saying the death rate was 0.1%, due to assumptions everywhere.


9 posted on 09/10/2020 7:38:49 AM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: SeekAndFind

10 posted on 09/10/2020 7:39:36 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (This Space For Rant)
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To: OrangeHoof

THAT’s who has been keeping us from our Flying cars....


11 posted on 09/10/2020 7:41:33 AM PDT by Cletus.D.Yokel ( Scatology is serendipitous.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Great article — thanks for posting it.

The Left likes to claim that anyone who disagrees with them is “anti-science” and just too ignorant to understand. How dare you not trust the experts! But the experts have destroyed their credibility by mistakes, conflating terms, and outright deliberate lying.

Dr. Fauci compared apples to oranges to reach conclusions that were orders of magnitude off. Oops. He proclaimed that masks were useless for the general public. Then he proclaimed that masks were absolutely necessary for the general public. His explanation: well, he lied because the selfish public, to protect its own lives, would have hogged up the masks needed for medical personnel. So he admits that he lies to trick us, but we should trust him now. Maybe that works for Democrats.


12 posted on 09/10/2020 7:44:25 AM PDT by Chewbarkah
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To: Jeff Chandler

Not without your mask, young lady!


13 posted on 09/10/2020 7:46:02 AM PDT by null and void (The Left weaponizes everything in the service of tyranny.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Article does its own playing around with numbers. Fails to mention that the actual IFR for COVID-19 is 0.64-0.66%. Throws around lots of other numbers though, and jumps back and forth very quickly between IFR and CFR. Why not just define CFR, explain why it’s basically useless for something like COVID-19 where so many are asymptomatic, and move on to compare IFR?


14 posted on 09/10/2020 8:12:58 AM PDT by 2aProtectsTheRest (The media is banging the fear drum enough. Don't help them do it.)
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To: 2aProtectsTheRest
Fails to mention that the actual IFR for COVID-19 is 0.64-0.66%

Yeah, that's definitely worth noting. In NYC there was at least 25% infection by random antibody testing earlier in the year. And 0.25% of all New Yorkers died. That gives us 1% IFR in a city with collapsed hosptals, bad government, etc. It's our nation's worst case scenario but not a terrible outcome.

15 posted on 09/10/2020 8:41:02 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is what happens when you let Applied Biological Technicians (Medical Doctors) try to do statistics.

Fauci is a worse then average case...his undergraduate degree was in Classics, for God’s sake.


16 posted on 09/10/2020 9:23:59 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: Hojczyk; All

“Any one with half a brain figured out the lock down should have end after two or three weeks...the data was right there from Europe...”

LOCKDOWN has put us into a PSYCHOLOGICAL coma. Americans may NEVER come out of it. It’s the perfect vehicle for all types of TOTALITARIANS of all genders, races, ages, nations, evildoers world-wide. Brilliant CONTROL/ELIMINATE plausible deniability for EUGENICISTS world-wide against we the people.

2020 see clearly. EUGENICS...softkill or hardball...it matters not.


17 posted on 09/10/2020 10:08:07 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Michael Bolton : I must have put a decimal point in the wrong place or something. I always do that. I always mess up some mundane detail. ... Well this is not a mundane detail, Michael!


18 posted on 09/10/2020 10:22:27 AM PDT by pas
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To: Chewbarkah; All

“His explanation:....”

Plausible deniability is ALWAYS built into discussion with SUPEREVIL. Listen carefully. Face - Words - Deeds.

Trey Billygoat microSoftkill Gates
George Nazi Collaborator Soros
Tony Wormhead Fauci

They all use the same tactics to deceive/deflect. Their mission is to DEPOPULATE. THEY have only disdain for vast right-wing conspirators, bitter-clingers, deplorables, dog-faced pony soldiers. Listen. They expose themselves.

Hades is too cushy for them. They need to go straight to Tartarus.

https://www.greekmythology.com/Other_Gods/Tartarus/tartarus.html

You can NEVER get even with a PSYCHOPATH.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyBNRxeeyHc

“Without Conscience” - Dr. Robert Hare
“Inside the Criminal Mind” - Stanton Samenow


19 posted on 09/10/2020 10:29:32 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Hojczyk

Any one with half a brain figured out the lock down should have end after two or three weeks...


Well, probably about 4-6 weeks because of the long incubation period, because if nothing else it demonstrated that the disease was spreading anyways, either through exceedingly high communicability or through people not obeying the quarantine in sufficiently high proportions - and it really doesn’t matter which.

Much of the country never got high enough levels to warrant a lockdown in the first place, but if you’re going to do one, you can see by then that as a full-population quarantine, it was a failure.


20 posted on 09/10/2020 9:57:04 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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