[DoodleBob]

I wrote elsewhere, that this is less about anti-vaxxers and more about risk/reward. And frankly, the trade-off in this COVID19 vaccine choice isn't all that great, IMHO.

The success of a vaccine in heling the patient AND the herd depends up the Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and mutation likelihood. Regarding the VE for the COVID19 vaccine, we are just guessing. It should be greater than 50% per CDC, the head of Warp Speed "wouldn't be surprised" if it was around 90%, and Fauci would "settle" for it being between 70% and 75%. That's comforting.

For comparison, the VE for the 3 doses of the polio vaccine is around 99%, up from 70%-95% in the Francis Field Trial. However, the Cutter incident is a reminder that operational risk is real and cannot be wished away. Also, the polio vaccine's VE reflects over 60+ years of refinement and polio hasn't mutated until recently.

In contrast, the annual VE for influenza (which mutates) ranged from 60% to 19% over the past decade. So while vaccines on (relatively) non-mutating viruses like polio can have high VEs at inception, they carry operational risks that give people pause. The science on mutating Coronaviruses like influenza reveal a VE below coin-toss proportions (actually the influenza average VE was 43.8% over the last decade). Small wonder large proportions of people don't want the vaccine (though I'm not a big polls=truth guy). <>Finally, and not insignificantly, the estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID19 is 0.4%. That's not quite as low as the 0.1% CFR for influenza, but it's not smallpox or Ebola..or other things:

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2018
Cause of Death	Odds of Dying
Heart disease	1 in 6
Cancer	1 in 7
All preventable causes of death	1 in 25
Chronic lower respiratory disease	1 in 26
Suicide	1 in 86
Opioid overdose	1 in 98
Motor-vehicle crash	1 in 106
Fall	1 in 111
Gun assault	1 in 298
Pedestrian incident	1 in 541
Motorcyclist	1 in 890
Drowning	1 in 1,121
Fire or smoke	1 in 1,399
Choking on food	1 in 2,618
Bicyclist	1 in 4,060
Sunstroke	1 in 7,770
Accidental gun discharge	1 in 9,077
Electrocution, radiation, extreme temperatures, and pressure	1 in 12,484
Sharp objects	1 in 29,483
Hot surfaces and substances	1 in 45,186
Hornet, wasp, and bee stings	1 in 53,989
Cataclysmic storm	1 in 54,699
Dog attack	1 in 118,776
Lightning	1 in 180,746
Railway passenger	Too few deaths in 2018 to calculate odds
Passenger on an airplane	Too few deaths in 2018 to calculate odds

In conclusion, folks who don't wish to take a vaccine a few days after it's been approved and where the operational kinks may not have been worked out, that might work some of the time on a virus that kills an estimated 0.4% of people afflicted with symptoms (wherein 94% of those killed have at least one comorbidity), aren't anti-vaxxers...they're actually pretty rational creatures.

[Veto!]

Interesting post, thanks for the stats.

The other piece of the puzzle is your immune system. Mine is terrific. Have been taking the supplements that build immunity with breakfast for the last 40 years.
D3, A, 1 gram C, Zinc picolinate. Plus iodine—I get ground kelp, sprinkle on fish or in tomato juice. My daughter reminded me that she got really sick of all the kelp I shoved into her when she was a kid, but has a new sushi bar nearby that wraps sushi in kelp. What’s not to like?

[Honorary Serb]

.....mutating Coronaviruses like influenza....

1. Influenza is NOT a coronavirus!!! The issue with influenza is not only that it mutates, but that different strains may become prevalent in a given year (i.e., by moving in from another part of the world ). Taking the flue vaccine is a good idea because even when those who determine a given year’s flu vaccine composition “guess” wrong, vaccinated people usually have a milder case. And elderly people tend not to get pneumonia, which is the real killer.

2. Although the mortality rate from covid for those under 65 is low, there is also morbidity to consider. For example:

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/what-it-means-to-be-a-coronavirus-long-hauler/

There is no way to predict who will develop these “long haul” symptoms. The receptor for the covid virus is present in most tissues of the body, so there may be long-lasting effects of the disease on the heart, kidneys, intestines, and other organs. And there is no way to predict these effects, either.

Finally, governments will not allow us to get back to normal until we have a vaccine or vaccines, and enough people take them to achieve herd immunity. I for one would like to ditch masking, social distancing, and other restrictions. So we need population-wide vaccination, once we have safe and effective FDA-approved vaccines. From that posit of view, it is irrational to refuse vaccination!!!!

[Rusty0604]

Thanks for the information. I don’t take vaccines that I don’t know long term effects are. I haven’t had any flu since 1978.

[SisterK]

folks who don't wish to take a vaccine a few days after it's been approved and where the operational kinks may not have been worked out, that might work some of the time on a virus that kills an estimated 0.4% of people afflicted with symptoms (wherein 94% of those killed have at least one comorbidity), aren't anti-vaxxers...they're actually pretty rational creatures.

thank you, FRiend