Posted on 09/02/2020 8:53:34 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
I’ve only see a couple Biden signs and bumper stickers myself. Rarely even see anything while driving the I-405 corridor from Lynnwood to Bellevue out here in Washington.
Monmouth poll is a joke and has been since I can remember. should never even be reported on, because it is that big of a joke.
I’m a data guy so for fun I performed a simple analysis using the latest registration numbers of PA and compared them to 2016.
Basically, I determined the percentage vote county by county that Trump and Hillary received by Reps and Dems, respectively, then applied those same percentages to the latest registration numbers. Which, by the way, Reps have gained 157,420 over Dems since 2016.
So if the same percentages hold with the updated registration numbers, Trump would win by 148,547 votes. Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016.
There have been ads running regularly here that show Biden saying that. They are from some energy industry lobbying group, not the Trump campaign.
I’m in a large college town and there is a surprisingly low number of Biden signs, compared to the large # of Hillary in ‘16. Sprinkled in w/ a few Trump signs is an unusual # of people flying the American flag. They are Trumpers, IMHO, who would rather not put a sign in their lawn.
Statistical Tie = Trump is ahead
Monmouth University is right up the street from me, a ten minute drive. Their polls have always oversampled RATs.
Yes, really that means Trump is up by ten.
No, the margin of ballot harvesting is unknown, not even necessarily limited by the number of registered voters in the state.
While it is an improvement over their prior poll, a 49-46 result with a 4.9% MOE results in a 76% probability of the leader actually winning, which is hardly a "tie."
However, in my model this poll does increase President Trump's probability of winning Pennsylvania from 6.6% to 11.7%.
-PJ
A big clue would be 110% voter turnout. :)
I know of two houses with BiteMe signs and a McGrath for senate here in southeast KY. One of them briefly had a BLM sign for a couple of days and it vanished. I haven’t seen any Trump signs but lots and lots of Trump flags hanging on stoops and flying from vehicles and bumper stickers.
The main supporters of BiteMe in my small town are the public school teachers which is to be expected them being communist and all.
The Economist/YouGov poll is 1,500 adults that is a whopping D+15! They show Biden 51-40.
The Investor's Business Daily poll is not releasing internals. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence shifted to an online poll amid the coronavirus pandemic. TechnoMetrica President Raghavan Mayur notes, "Panel samples are convenience samples and are not probability samples and hence the concept of margin of error does not apply."
The Rasmussen demographics are behind a paywall.
I guess we'll have to wait for more state polls.
-PJ
By high turnout they mean the black turnout, which is not going to happen for Biden
Means PT is up by 2.
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