What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? In what may be the world’s most important math puzzle, researchers are trying to figure out how many people in a community must be immune before the coronavirus fades.

New York Times ^ | August 17, 2020 | Apoorva Mandavilli

[karpov]

We’ve known from the beginning how the end will arrive. Eventually, the coronavirus will be unable to find enough susceptible hosts to survive, fading out wherever it briefly emerges.

To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.

The new estimates result from complicated statistical modeling of the pandemic, and the models have all taken divergent approaches, yielding inconsistent estimates. It is not certain that any community in the world has enough residents now immune to the virus to resist a second wave.

But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

“I’m quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”

“The question of what it means for the population as a whole, however, is much more fraught,” he added.

Herd immunity is calculated from the epidemic’s so-called reproductive number, R0, an indicator of how many people each infected person spreads the virus to.

[karpov]

We can't afford to keep the country indefinitely locked down (except for BLM and Antifa rioters) anyway.

[Diogenesis]

FauXi, SoroXi, PeloXi, Xi, and GateXi
will only then release their NEXT novel virus.
this time to insert polio, AIDs, whatever their
evil labs thought up in 2005 when they
filed patents on this, and the vaccines.

WHEN WILL THERE BE ACCOUNTABILITY FOR ANYTHING?

even the 951 stolen FIB files?
ANYTHING?

[Hot Tabasco]

Sooner or later you're going to come in contact with the virus and you will either contract it or you won't and there's not a thing you can do about it.........

I have no intentions of living in fear over something that is totally out of my control......

[Hojczyk]

we are just making it last long with..masks,social districting,and lockdowns...

[Cboldt]

The science says COVID-19 fade depends on the outcome of the election.

[SauronOfMordor]

New York and Philadelphia COVID death rates have faded to negligible levels, indicating that everyone who was susceptible to it, is over it or naturally immune.

[Sacajaweau]

The problem is...they haven't been testing for Covid AND ANTI-BODIES at the same time. They should have been doing both tests.

My take...they deliberately have been doing VERY selective anti-body testing.

[BeauBo]

In addition to those with specific antibodies to COVID-19 (which shows up on a PCR test), some number of others probably have cross immunity from exposure to other corona viruses (which doesn’t show up on the test).

Cross immunity might be the reason that so many are asymptomatic. It could be pretty widespread.

[gas_dr]

Let’s get the science correct. Antibodies do not show up on PCR

[norwaypinesavage]

"Let’s get the science correct."

"Science" is always correct. It's just that those who profess to be "Scientists" are often wrong. Those who claim to quote "Scientists" are almost always wrong, as they are simply quoting their own narrative.

[TalBlack]

The answers to these questions will likely differ according to party affiliation.

[Abby4116]

My daughter is a blood donor. The Red Cross is doing "complimentary" antibody testing for COVID. When she gave at the end of May she tested positive for antibodies. In July, she tested negative for antibodies.

This means that either the test is faulty or that the antibodies do not last long. We're talking about 8 weeks difference here.

[mistfree]

The health minister in Sweden says the herd immunity kicks in at 17 - 20%. I’m sorry, I read this about two weeks ago and I don’t have a link.

[gas_dr]

PCR does not tear for antibodies as you promote. You are incorrect and it appears you are basing a statement of fact on a faulty premise

PCR tests for the presence of viral genetic materials. The question of activity and inactivity is still not settled. We know that people can have positive tests for 90 days because this is how long it takes for the LR tract to turn over. So the late positives are probably dead particles.

Don’t attack me because you fail to understand the principles or what is being tested.

[InterceptPoint]

Herd Immunity Mathematics is just now being developed???

I really have a hard time buying that idea. This problem should have been studied to death decades if not centuries ago. Plenty of real infection and death data over the years to develop and refine the models.

So run those models you math wizards and tell us what they say.

[norwaypinesavage]

I wasn’t commenting about PCR. I was commenting about scientists.

[gas_dr]

You state in addition to the antibodies which shown up on PCR. You are wrong. So attack scientists when you can’t even get the science correct. It hurts your credibility.

[Dutch Boy]

I agree. Had we just lived life as normal, it would have be over in a few months.

[DaxtonBrown]

There’s herd immunity, but they leave out geographic immunity and temperature immunity. I live in sparsely populated, hot as hell, Las Vegas. Why am I supposed to wear a mask?

[Bruiser 10]

Nostradumbass