Posted on 08/22/2020 1:57:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season continues to heat up as we are two weeks shy of average season peak activity. Two tropical systems are taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico concurrently. Tropical Storm Laura has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Marco is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
There is a possibility we may see the amazing Fujiwhara Effect, where two storms within 870 miles of each other will dance around each other. If one storm is significantly stronger, the weaker storm will be absorbed into the stronger storm. If the two storms are similar in size, they can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point where they either merge or they spin each other around for a while before they spin off in different directions. The likelihood of a Fujiwhara Effect is low, however, due to the relatively small area in the Gulf of Mexico.
Laura's fate is dependent upon the extent of interaction with the tall mountains of Hispanola and Cuba.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mine had hurricanes, but had to add earthquake.
What a prick to remove the generator.
It’s going to be an interesting week.
I went to an open house showing and there were sticky notes on everything...this stays, this goes. But bolted down, or too heavy to casually remove by hand, it definitely stays unless contract indicates otherwise.
When I bought my last casa the seller actually left a couple pieces of furniture after I told him we could make use of them. I was going to offer to purchase but he said “they’re yours”.
Seeing some drizzle from Marco now. Light breeze. Tornado watch in effect off to our southeast. Nothing messy. Yet, depending on how these might track.
Recon finding some odd structure
looks like a “center” has shot NNW from the 5pm position and just make landfall in Cuba
but Recon finding SE winds SE of this feature ...winds should be SW in that quad in that is the true center
another spin is visible WSW of the Isle of Youth within that huge blowup of storms ..and it is possible the above feature in rotating around that??
center relocations may be on progress
7pm update...out shortly might not have all the answer because the plane is still investigating
pressure down a few MB
WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
LAURA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
recon has found the storm more NW then the 7pm advisory..they actually flew over Cuba to find it
core is really organizing would be in the Gulf in within 2 hours
22.4N and 83.4W is about recon fix
the quick cycle 0z model suite is similar to 18z with landfall just east of the TX/LA border
however both 18z EURO and GEFS ensemble means are still Houston area
two camps setting up one by the LA/TX border and the other between Galveston and Freeport....
if the west camp is correct then Houston will be caught off guard
mid-level and surface lows still not stacked by they are closer ...system slowly Organizing and about to move into the Gulf
Track shifted slightly west:
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in
western Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt.
Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.
Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is now
coming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that
the storm has become better organized with deep convection
beginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstorms
on the south side. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and that
the winds are around 55 kt.
Laura continues to move fairly steadily to the west-northwest with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 290/17 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is generally unchanged from previous discussions.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward at about the same
forward speed through Tuesday as it remains in the flow on the
southwest side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S. This motion should cause
the system to make landfall in either southwestern Louisiana or the
Upper Texas coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. After
landfall, Laura is forecast to continue moving northward before
turning eastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. Although the global models are in
relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble
members, especially in the ECMWF. Therefore, confidence in the
track forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus aids.
The storm is starting to pull away from the western portion of Cuba,
and it should be over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for about 2
days. Since Laura will have a notable amount of time over waters
with high oceanic heat while moving through a low wind shear and
high moisture air mass, significant strengthening seems quite likely
until the storm makes landfall. The intensity models all show Laura
making landfall as a hurricane, but there are differences on exactly
how strong it will be. The NHC intensity forecast continues to
stay near the consensus aids, which usually perform best, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strengthen when it reaches the
coast.
00z NAM , which is not a tropical model, trended west
00Z ICON, an average to slightly below average tropical model trended west
00Z GFS just in, one of the top tropical models but has an eastern bias at times , also trending slightly west a hair and now hits the TX/LA border vs about 10 miles east
500 AM NHC Update
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Marco, the little hurricane that couldn’t.
Did u even get any rain or wind?
Uh-oh! A Cat 3 of 115mph...
Little Marco, the warm up band that never got its own gig.
Translates to storm surge up to 11 feet.
Track has shifted west again a hair
00z EURO mpre west
06Z GFS just in more west and has a landfall now west of the LA/TX border
06Z model suite ticked west
A majpr hurricane cold be heading for houston Area in 48 hours
Big Shock coming at 10am
fyi--I'll be posting a new thread when Laura reaches hurricane status.
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