Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

TS Laura and Marco
NOAA/NHC ^ | 21 August 2020 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/22/2020 1:57:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season continues to heat up as we are two weeks shy of average season peak activity. Two tropical systems are taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico concurrently. Tropical Storm Laura has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Marco is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

There is a possibility we may see the amazing Fujiwhara Effect, where two storms within 870 miles of each other will dance around each other. If one storm is significantly stronger, the weaker storm will be absorbed into the stronger storm. If the two storms are similar in size, they can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point where they either merge or they spin each other around for a while before they spin off in different directions. The likelihood of a Fujiwhara Effect is low, however, due to the relatively small area in the Gulf of Mexico.

Laura's fate is dependent upon the extent of interaction with the tall mountains of Hispanola and Cuba.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.

Laura Marco

Laura Public Advisory Marco Public Advisory
Laura Forecast Discussion Marco Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Laura Buoy/Observations near Marco

Bouy Data Northern GOM
Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Florida Keys Radar Loop with Storm Track
NW Florida Radar Loop
Mobile AL Radar Loop
West LA Radar Loop
Galveston/Houston Radar Loop



TOPICS: Front Page News; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: fl; hurricane; la; laura; marco; tropical; tx
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 221-240241-260261-280281-287 next last
To: janetjanet998
Thanks for your thoughtful input.

I've been seeing what looks like elements of both storms picked up in many of the model tracks. Hopefully, Laura's track will become more evident once the storm clears Cuba.

Good thing Marco has deteriorated. Forward movement has slowed to 8mph.

241 posted on 08/24/2020 8:17:12 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Trumptilla MOAB--Mother of All Boat Parades--Clearwater FL, 8-15-2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 235 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

12z GFS carbon copy of old run

landfall near Lake Charles


242 posted on 08/24/2020 8:51:58 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 236 | View Replies]

Does anyone know why DISQUS was removed from the CAT6 page over at wunderground?

Thanks,


243 posted on 08/24/2020 9:00:41 AM PDT by VastRWCon (Fake News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: VastRWCon

New Forum is at DR Masters new Yale site..most people don’t like it

here is the link to the old DISQUS

https://disqus.com/home/discussion/wund/weather_underground_2993/newest/


244 posted on 08/24/2020 9:05:13 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 243 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

12 UKMET shift east more in line with the other models near the TX/LA border

most model ensembles have a stronger storm moving more west and making landfall more south

The stronger she gets the more west it goes


245 posted on 08/24/2020 9:07:41 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 241 | View Replies]

To: texanyankee

Yeah you don’t want to deplete the aquifer.. The problem we have in Florida is if we take our aquifer levels down too low we get salt water intrusion...


246 posted on 08/24/2020 9:39:43 AM PDT by GOPJ (The Democrat Convention Theme was suppose to be 'Chaos Under Trump' - riots backfired...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 227 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

——New Forum is at DR Masters new Yale site..most people don’t like it-——

Thank you!


247 posted on 08/24/2020 9:42:46 AM PDT by VastRWCon (Fake News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 244 | View Replies]

To: All

Port Arthur Mayor Thurman Bartie plans on issuing a mandatory evacuation of the city, beginning tomorrow at 6 AM.


248 posted on 08/24/2020 10:02:43 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 247 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Can’t disagree with the decision to evacuate. Beaumont/Port Arthur has had major flooding problems during past storms.


249 posted on 08/24/2020 10:42:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Trumptilla MOAB--Mother of All Boat Parades--Clearwater FL, 8-15-2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 248 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

12z Euro landfall near TX/LA border

12z ensembles of models not in yet

My biggest fear is a last minute shift west catching HOU off guard

Models, and NHC, have been very poor with this system and Marco and all year really

Had it hitting FL around this time Last Thursday

Some speculate it is from less Aircraft data being feed the models because of less flights thanks to COVID19


250 posted on 08/24/2020 11:20:51 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 249 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Good links.

The Yale guy says Laura will strike in the Houston area.


251 posted on 08/24/2020 11:43:07 AM PDT by miserare ( Respect for life--life of all kinds-- is the first principle of civilization.~~A. Schweitzer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 244 | View Replies]

To: miserare
12z ensembles for EURO in and there are much further SW then the operational run..Mean near Houston and some well south of that

Final batch of weather models have arrived for this afternoon for Tropical Storm Laura 🌀

Certainly concerning for a more westward jaunt of the storm track into Texas. Same message: be on watch for major hurricane from Texas including Houston to Louisiana late Wednesday https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

252 posted on 08/24/2020 12:11:23 PM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 251 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Most of the 12z EPS members still show landfall in Texas. #Laura

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1297974190340005888/photo/1


253 posted on 08/24/2020 12:14:33 PM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 252 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998
Some speculate it is from less Aircraft data being feed the models because of less flights thanks to COVID19

That's crazy if true. The flight crews all have jump suits, oxygen masks, etc., available for every flight before and after COVID-19. Mechanics?

Reminds me of 2001, immediately following 9-11. We were essentially blind-sided by Gabrielle when all aircraft were grounded, including hurricane hunters.

254 posted on 08/24/2020 12:23:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Trumptilla MOAB--Mother of All Boat Parades--Clearwater FL, 8-15-2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 250 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

That’s crazy if true. The flight crews all have jump suits, oxygen masks, etc., available for every flight before and after COVID-19. Mechanics?


It is from the reduction of commercial flights because of less demand, Flight data and also cruise ship data go into the models. This is important over the oceans where upper air data is scarce ..can’t launch land based weather balloons...

In this case the high pressure was underestimated over the Western Atlantic pushing the storm more west

They have been flying lots of recons and upper air flight missions around the storm in recent days to get more data

and models have halting the west shift and seem to like the LA/TX border...this includes the 18z model suite just in


255 posted on 08/24/2020 12:39:28 PM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 254 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

18Z suite tightly clustered at LA/TX border

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_tracks_latest.png


256 posted on 08/24/2020 12:41:52 PM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 255 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

Ok, that makes more sense. I take it that recon flights are still limited over Cuban air space too.


257 posted on 08/24/2020 12:42:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Trumptilla MOAB--Mother of All Boat Parades--Clearwater FL, 8-15-2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 255 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved
somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an
increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however,
indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and
the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown
the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east
and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks
an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been
able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The
aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003
mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous
advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low
vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The
latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models
continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the
Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once
an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is
again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope
while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane
strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these
solutions and is close to the consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over
the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next
day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over
the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western
portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward
and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After
landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S.
on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again
reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or
intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is
around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph.
In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and
hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC’s 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura’s center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause
mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


258 posted on 08/24/2020 2:02:33 PM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...

500 AM NHC Update

TS Laura TS Marco
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches Issued for Portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico... Marco Producing Heavy Rainfall and Gusty Winds...
Location About 40 MI E of the Isle of Youth
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving WNW at 20 MPH
Pressure 1001 MB

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
from the center.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar TX to west of Morgan City LA

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs MS
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
Location About 15 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Moving NW at 7 MPH
Pressure 1008 MB

Tropical Storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center...


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->


259 posted on 08/24/2020 2:11:42 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Trumptilla MOAB--Mother of All Boat Parades--Clearwater FL, 8-15-2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OrangeHoof

Naw, they just got married. Two become one.


260 posted on 08/24/2020 2:37:44 PM PDT by madison10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 221-240241-260261-280281-287 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson