Posted on 08/22/2020 1:57:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season continues to heat up as we are two weeks shy of average season peak activity. Two tropical systems are taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico concurrently. Tropical Storm Laura has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Marco is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
There is a possibility we may see the amazing Fujiwhara Effect, where two storms within 870 miles of each other will dance around each other. If one storm is significantly stronger, the weaker storm will be absorbed into the stronger storm. If the two storms are similar in size, they can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point where they either merge or they spin each other around for a while before they spin off in different directions. The likelihood of a Fujiwhara Effect is low, however, due to the relatively small area in the Gulf of Mexico.
Laura's fate is dependent upon the extent of interaction with the tall mountains of Hispanola and Cuba.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
...Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The
storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern
Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge.
Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/
Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has
come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or
just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged
southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest
rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center,
so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone...
Little Macro appears to be petering out.
Yeah this entire adventure is pretty much a wait and see event.Right now we are probably getting as much as we will get from Laura.We have sustained of about 25-40 mph with possibly stronger gusts,no tree damage yet but would not surprise me.
LIttle in the way of rain.Laura is below us maybe 150 miles or so headed mostly west along the sw coast of cuba. I’m not sure.
Looks like two important buoys Molasses and Sombrero,Key Largo and Marathon are out,figures!! so Sand Key is about the closest.
Here’s stuff on them.
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 26 kts
- Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 41 kts
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
- Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
- Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 25 kts
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 27 kts
We are about 20 miles away from the Middle Keys so we are just outside of the TS warning.Warnings sound about right.
I’m slowly becoming more pessimistic that Marco - or Laura for that matter - will deliver any precip for the Texas Hill Country. Initially I had my hopes up when the first projected path from several days back had Marco basically taking a trip directly at us. But with so many revisions I’m just having to keep my faith that God will answer our prayers.
We’re in drought conditions in Central Texas. My cattle tanks are almost dry. I’m already looking to install water troughs. Being a native Texan, I probably should have already taken those steps so it’s all on me.
When you guys drill wells do you hit fresh water or crude oil?
There ain’t no oil nor gas in this area. One of the few areas in Texas with no petroleum.
When we drill in this area we’re hoping to strike something more valuable than oil - an aquifer. We get our water from a 200 ft well. With more people moving into the Hill Country, everyone drills their own water well. The water tables are receding.
Years ago, my Dad & Uncle would say, “...one day water is gonna be more valuable than oil..”
I believe it.
Wow interesting,Texas is a huge state.
Maybe you can get enough water from your well to take care of all your needs?
Hurricane thread bump.
Yep...that big high pressure system has been parked over us for the longest time.
I wish it would ease itself over towards the east and drive some of that Gulf moisture into our state.
Seems I need to watch the development of this storm a bit closer now as I’m just 45 miles or so North by slightly NE of Houston up I-69 near Cleveland area. Last time Hurricane Rita put 5 large gaping holes in my homes roof and uprooted about 4 very large Oak trees on my property. Don’t need any more of that for sure.
This weather porn is 3 days old and now wrong.
NN literally JUST posted the latest update.
Try to keep up.
Not liking what I aM seeing with Laura
Models have a stronger storm moving more west into TX
06Z EURO just in has trending west and is similar to 00z UK model
a NNW moving storm making landfall SW of Galveston would be a nightmare for Houston metro and the US oil and gas refining as a huge surge coming into the Bay
also will only have 66-72 hours from now to evacuate many
NHC update within the hour
I suspect a tick west in the track and a CAT 3 of 115
MPH
Then perhaps another tick west in the 5pm update
The storm on the tracker doesn’t match the satellite location. This is weird.
Why are they not fixing that?
Quit calling everything porn.
1100 AM NHC Update
|
000
WTNT43 KNHC 241440
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
Laura’s satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since
yesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convection
near the center, and a large band over the southern periphery of
the circulation. It appears that the combination of land
interaction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air has
caused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50
kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt.
Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme
northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today,
and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves
over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then
forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight
where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable
upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady
strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite
bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate
significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The
statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is
in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie
between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance.
Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over the
past day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The
deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading through
Tuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the
south-central United States should produce a break in the ridge over
the western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestward
Tuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the storm
is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night.
The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve to
the northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period.
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and
these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry
Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.
2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north-
central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches
will likely be issued later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 21.2N 80.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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