Posted on 08/12/2020 8:27:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Say what? Just two months after the killing of George Floyd set cities aflame across the country, Donald Trump has pulled into a virtual tie with Joe Biden in Minnesota — or so one pollster reports. According to a new Emerson poll, Biden only leads 50/47, while only a tiny percentage of voters claim to remain undecided:
A new Emerson College Poll finds Minnesota is competitive again in 2020, with 50% of voters planning on supporting former VP Joe Biden and 47% intending to vote for President Trump. While the race is close, only 3% of voters remain undecided. Of voters who plan to vote by mail, 91% plan to vote for Biden, and of those who plan to vote in person, 68% plan to vote for Trump.
President Trump’s approval rating amongst Minnesota voters is slightly underwater, with 46% approval, and 51% disapprove of his job performance, with 3% remaining neutral. Among independent voters, Trump’s approval is at 45% approval, and 47% disapproval.
I’d tend to be a little skeptical about these results, strictly from an observational point of view. However, this doesn’t appear to be much of an outlier. RCP doesn’t have much on Minnesota’s presidential polling, but Emerson’s not far off from a Trafalgar poll taken a couple of weeks earlier. The GOP-linked polling firm had a larger sample (1129 likely voters, compared to Emerson’s 733 registered voters), but found Biden only leading by five points, 49/44. Fox had Biden up thirteen earlier in June, 51/38, which now looks like more of an outlier.
Emerson also gives us our first look at the US Senate race in Minnesota. Former Rep. Jason Lewis has challenged interim appointment Tina Smith, and it looks like he’s in range of an upset as well:
In the race for US Senate, the Democratic incumbent Senator Tina Smith leads by a margin similar to the Presidential race with a 3 point lead of 48% to 45% over the presumptive Republican challenger former Congressman Jason Lewis. Seven-percent (7%) of voters are still undecided.
Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson College Poll points out that “in 2016, the Senate races in each state were won by the same party that won the Presidential election in that state, and it appears that the same pattern might emerge in 2020.”
A win by Republicans in either race would be a huge upset; a win in both races would be an epic takeaway from Democrats. It would be so epic, in fact, that it tends to reinforce the skepticism with which I started. Republicans haven’t won a statewide election in Minnesota since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty narrowly won re-election in a three-way race, 46.69/45.73 and the Independence Party picking up 6.43% of the vote.
Since then, it’s hardly ever even been close. Two years ago, Smith won the rest of her interim term by defeating Karin Housley by ten points, slightly narrower than Tim Walz’ gubernatorial win over Republican Jeff Johnson. The only reason the 2016 presidential election was close here was because Hillary Clinton didn’t turn out Barack Obama’s voters; Trump only added 2,726 votes to Mitt Romney’s 2012 totals, while Hillary lost 178,451 votes from 2012’s turnout.
Both Emerson and Trafalgar point to a much closer contest in November. If so — and if this isn’t just some polling noise — then it might be due to the “abolish the police” push in Minneapolis and the sharp rise in crime over the last two months. Trump and Lewis could very well benefit from that, plus the deterioration of security in the Twin Cities might act to deflate enthusiasm for turnout in November. That is the DFL’s power center when it comes to statewide elections, and any decline in turnout will increase the power of suburbs and “outstate Minnesota” in determining outcomes.
So yes, this might be an interesting year for elections in Minnesota. I’d like to see more polling on these statewide races before moving Minnesota to battleground status, but I’d bet that Democrats might start moving resources around sooner than that to shore up their standing here — and that’s not bad news for the GOP elsewhere.
President Trump can win here in Minnesota. He will never win in Minneapolistan but the American part of the state wants him.
Those frequent Biden rallies in Minn. are having the opposite effect. At this point, I think Gordy the weatherman and Murray are voting Trump. Mary Richards is hopeless, I’m afraid.
I believe if Trump makes a real effort here in MN he can win.
I hope he wins and brings Jason Lewis with him
If Biden is only ahead by 3 points now, wait until after he stumbles thru 3 debates drooling and shouting C’mon man.
But I think this early voting push is particularly nefarious and will lead to campaigns starting earlier and earlier to attempt to smoke the opposition out. I hate these endless campaign seasons.
That would be something great.
Maybe Jason Lewis will actually try this time.
President Trump can win here in Minnesota.
Agree, but with mail in ballots he doesn’t stand a chance.
Lol. A poll “tie” means Trump is ahead.
I was doubtful that the riots vs law and order issue would help trump (because the media’s power over the perception of both.
But this data point matches up with another one from Washington State (birthplace of CHOP CHAS chaos):
“But, what’s clear here is that these primary results don’t fit the common narrative of 2020 being a banner year for Democrats.
For folks who think that this is going to be a good year for Democrats because of the toxicity of the Republican brand, the results from the primary just don’t show that.”
A recent poll by Emerson showed Lewis trailing by 3-4 points.
He is within range of winning this too.
All spring and summer, he has been extensively canvassing rural Minnesota in an RV. By the few accounts I’ve read, he’s drawn respectable crowds.
Of lately, Lewis has been moving in and working the 2nd and 3rd ring suburbs of Minneapolis-St Paul.
We’re believing polls now?
He only lost Minnesota by a few thouseand votes, a couple of percent, last time. The riots may make that difference.
It is possible but Trump will have to work hard in the Iron Range and the Rich Liberal parts of Minneapolis.
The Democrats have ruled Minnesota since the 60’s and they will not give up their power easily.
Emerson also has Biden up 9 in Pennsylvania and up 4 in Arizona and only down 2 in North Carolina. Do we believe those as well?
“”””and the Rich Liberal parts of Minneapolis.”””
They are getting tired of living in a war zone caused by weak democrat leadership.
Trump will never be able to win any blue state that allows mail in voting and ballot harvesting. Mail in voting and ballot harveting eliminates chain of custody. Therefore, anyone can dump votes or add votes and there is no way to prove or trace anything. It’s like eliminating serial numbers and watermarks from US currency. When you eliminate chain of custody, fraud is guaranteed to happen!
Minneapolis has opened the eyes of people in that region...
Trump will just have to show up... antifa, assorted thugs, arsonists, looters and big city democrat mayors have done the heavy lifting for Trump...
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