Posted on 07/13/2020 2:40:22 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 117
As of 07/12/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information2
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities Remained Heavier Considering the Day of the Week
The trend in higher Fatalities continued yesterday, although the count for the
Sunday did drop to 379 from 732. The sad fact is, this was a 51% rise over the
Sunday before.
I was afraid we were going to see a 500 to 600 day. 379 certainly isn't as bad
as it cold have been, but if we look at the growth from Sunday last week, we can
see real potential for us to break above 1,000 this week.
Thoughts on My Efforts Here...
I talk about Fatalities because it is the reality we face. I'm not trying to panic
anyone. What I want to do is prepare folks for higher numbers. Expecting it makes
it a little easier to accept when it takes place.
I try to use common language to address these things. I'm not here to impress
anyone with professionalism. I'm just an average guy presenting the information
and commentary as if you were here in front of me. I'm not an expert, and I don't
profess to be. I've got nothing to prove.
This isn't exactly a happy celebratory topic. I started this effort hoping that
we could talk about things and gain strength from each other, as we went though
this together. Not everyone has a safety net of family and friends. I wanted an
in-house place folks could get information, and connect on the topic as the
disease and the pubic policies progressed.
My job isn't to figure out how not to trigger some brittle people on these threads.
My job is to provide the information I develop, and call it I see it. I try not
to be definitive in my comments, but I do try to lay out what I think is just ahead
based on recent events and trends.
If you disagree with my thoughts, simply say so and explain what your reasoning is.
I don't mind people having differing opinions. If you start isulting me on a
thread I spent 3-4 hours creating, you're damn straight going to get some feed-back
on it.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
New Cases came in lower again yesterday. That's pretty good considering we tested
just a bit below 700 thousand people. That was lower than the two previous days.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active cases continue to climb.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
You can see how these percentages dipped and then started to grow again. The
crucial aspect of this is the testing.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.
The postive percentage of testing fell off a bit again yesterday. We are
running very high levels of testing. Take a moment to check out the numbers
for the last few days. Pretty amazing actually...
It looks like there may be relief in the percentage of tests that come out
positive. There's been a nice reduction each day recently. We'll keep an eye on
this.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Cases and Resolved Cases look to be closing.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Yesterday was another very high day globally.
Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
For your review...
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric looked a bit better yesterday.
This three week chart interests me. The symmetry of the last six days is pretty
orderly
These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.
. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.
The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.
Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
As the number of daily Fatalities grow, the dismissing of those high levels of
New Cases loses favor. I wouldn't mind 100k New Cases per day, if the Fatality
rate was low. If the fatalities move back up into the thousands per day level
it's going to be a problem.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.007% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
I was surprsed to see the upward movement robust enough to carry us over the
62.00% level of Resolved Cases globally. That's where we want to be, growing
higher each day. The last few days we've lot a little ground here. We did that
before and recovered. Stay tuned...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
For your review...
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
U. S. Fatalities continue to remain in sub-1,000 territory, but the trend seems
to indicate we're headed up. We'll see...
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
In the lasts 37 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 37 days.
Sadly, we're seeing growth here. It looks as if the Fatalities are about to
start tracking noticably higher along with the New Case declarations.
New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
If you'll note, we just passed the half a percentage point of our populace's
infection rate.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Look at that massive margine of increased New Cases over the same day in prior
weeks. Not good...
We happen to be the primary reason for that too. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
We came in at 23rd again on the Testing per million scale yesterday. Running over
760 thousand tests didn't hurt this metric any.
Progress...
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations214,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
A cure for COVID!!!!!
The LYING ENEMY OF AMERICA liberal media are Producing FEAR!!! it is the ONLY way to take down our country!!! That is why we are having all of this distractions!!! BLM, Riots, etc...
Dr. Richard Bartlett Joins me to talk COVID CURES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDSDdwN2Xcg&feature=youtu.be
WOW! You have put in a heck of a lot of work here!
Thank you for your tremendous efforts! They are much appreciated!
62000 flu deaths estimated last year
bttt
So, I look at the numbers in the US and globally as they have changed, ebbed and flowed since this virus became a thing, compare the numbers to other illnesses as other causes of death and this is what I see:
When this started, there were scary projections we had to take seriously and we responded. But it’s over. It’s just another thing that might kill you.
This is assuming the death numbers are not inflated.
As a “thing”, it’s over, and is now just one of those things, like the flu, TB, Aids, heart disease, Cancer, etc. But much less deadly than most.
Life will kill you. — Warren Zevon
62000 flu deaths estimated last year.
So far this year there are 260,000 flu deaths worldwide. There are 409, total, just today - so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/
Your updates are the only reason I came back to this site. You have all the info I look for in trends. Greatly appreciated.
You are doing a great job, congratulations, and thanks. Your work makes my job a lot easier.
One of the worst features of this disaster is how avidly people of all sorts (including physicians and scientists) cling to their beliefs about the many aspects of the problem while events constantly are revealing new, changed realities.
Everybody wants to know the “truth”, while nature goes on revealing it hour by hour, day by day, month by month.
And, of course, the revealed and the hidden realities are driving policy made by people who demand certainty, and who find a never-ending supply of experts to give them whatever reality they prefer.
Your hard work on this mountain of sh*t is greatly appreciated. Unfortunately, as always, no good deed goes unpunished.
Appreciate the good work.
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380
Jul 7 = 333
Jul 8 = 409
Jul 9 = 435
Jul 10 = 421
Jul 11 = 248
Jul 12 = 227
We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over two weeks.
We maybe seeing an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients.
Are you saying it’s just the flu bro?
Yep. If you’re under 80 and not in a retirement home. :)
Mark
or not
Hi, D1 - Just wanted to thank you again for all the work. While we’ve disagreed a bit here and there, I think we’ve managed to be reasonable about it!
Know this, your work on this thread is greatly appreciated. Thank you for compiling this information to us each day.
Based on WOM data, if rate of infection and recoveries stay the same, we could see 150k deaths from covid by August, around 200k near the 1st October, 225k dying before the election in November, and 250k dead before the year is out, ATMC.
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual daily cases offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
Don’t think it will happen.
But still appreciate your input. So much other info is worthless.
Lots going on that isn’t put in the metrics.
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